Fish Bites

Running on mostly Mountain Dew and 45-60 minutes of sleep for the last day and a half, we begin pounding through today's late afternoon/early evening Bites!

- I was pleasantly surprised to find this interesting Marlins blog and, in particular, this interesting piece by Ryan Colburn on Marlins batting orders, the LaRussa way!

So, here’s why the move makes sense from a logic standpoint: While the pitcher may be the least effective offensive “force” in the lineup, and therefore should garner the fewest at bats, the pitcher is often pinch-hit for, therefore skewing the numbers. For example, Marlins pitchers this year have an On-Base Percentage of .129 and a Slugging Percentage of .118, obviously both of these are quite terrible. However, the 9th spot (which includes pinch-hitters) puts up a .226/.205 line, weighted predominantly by the pitchers’ lines.

Under the lineup of: Chris Coghlan, Emilio Bonifacio, Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla, Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, John Baker and the Pitcher, the Marlins are projected to score roughly 4.5 runs a game over the course of a 162 game season.

However, the “proposed” lineup sits somewhere in the middle, in terms of order, as: Chris Coghlan, John Baker, Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla, Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, Pitcher, Bonifacio would net roughly 4.7 runs/game, making it surprisingly close to ideal.

This was all done using Baseball Musings' awesome Lineup Analysis tool, in case you were wondering.

Now I ran the numbers myself and was surprised to find the following values, all using the 1999-2002 model:

The current lineup: 4.547 runs/game
The sensible lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and Baker: 4.646 runs/game
The LaRussa lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and the pitcher: 4.709 runs/game.

The difference between the current lineup and the sensible one is worth a modest 16 runs over 162 games, but the difference between the current and LaRussa lineups was calculated at a 26 runs in 162 games. But there's more fun to be had with this a little later.

- It seems Wachovia, the bank lending a large sum of credit towards paying for the Marlins' new stadium, wants some of that money now. Apparently they're demanding they get their fees paid to them before any money goes out towards other services in the building of the stadium. As a result, it looks like Miami-Dade county commissioners will have to make yet another vote on the issue, along with pushing the final pullout deadline to July 15th from July 1st. Delays, delays, as if this stadium business hasn't had enough of it. It's already bad enough the team sleazed its way into this mostly publicly-funded park, now we can't even get it underway without more problems from the parties involved.

- Slow Marlins news day, so I've got some other links for you. Eric Seidman has an excellent take on Matt Cain's performance, but be forewarned, lest ye be too quick with regression from BABIP.

- Also, a good post at Beyond the Box Score about Cap'n Jetes vs. A-Rod in the playoffs. You'd think it'd be no competition...and it really isn't, though jhmoore does mention that A-Rod has significantly fewer PA's in the playoffs than Jeter's ridiculous 549.

Hanley Ramirez mad at HBP, fans' heads explode

True, as Marlins fans we don't see much in the way of media coverage. But when Hanley Ramirez got a bit prissy about being hit by a pitch, and it followed with Fredi Gonzalez went berserker rage on the media (and likely Hanley as well), well, the stories came a' flying, or as "a' flying" as Marlins stories get. Here's fellow Marlins blog FishStripes take on the issue.

Dude, I've got news for you, you didn't hit a home run in the series and in fact you weren't even the star of the offensive for the series. Also, you were not the only one to get plunked. In fact, you are not even leading the team in hit by pitches or in home runs.

Is the "I'm going to be scared to hit a home run because I know I'm going to get hit" in chapter two of the How to be a Prima Dona Handbook?

The other part of it is, by publicly saying you are very easy to intimidate to the point you will stop trying, I can guarantee you will get hit and it won't matter how many times the Marlins retaliate, the other team will make you a target.

In the future if Ramirez has a problem he should take it up with Fredi behind close doors. It is the professional way to handle things.

Now, there are some things I can go along with on that, and some things I can't. I agree that what Hanley said was stupid, very stupid. And I also agree that it should have been kept within closed doors, within the clubhouse.

But come on. So what if he wasn't the only person hit? So what if he isn't the team's leader in HBP or home runs? So what if he wasn't the best player in the series (and in terms of Win Probability Added, he wasn't half bad)? He was one of the people hit. He felt bad about the Fish not retaliating, and whether it was right or wrong (my personal opinion is that the Marlins were right), it doesn't mean it's not a legitimate concern in the baseball world.

Let's not confuse why Hanley's comment was dumb. It wasn't dumb because he doesn't lead the team in home runs. It was dumb because saying that kind of stuff to the public media is dumb. He had every right to feel the way he did, just not to say it into the microphone for the crowd to hear.

Now FishStripes was not so harsh, the whole finger-wagging "you weren't even..." section aside. In fact, they were pretty light-handed about the affair, and I liked the way they handled it for the most part. What I haven't liked are the message board responses calling for Hanley's head and wondering why he doesn't work hard or doesn't give his full effort. From what I've seen, he's given his max effort the majority of the time. I haven't seen him dog a grounder or lazy out an infield play. He has occasionally gone into a home run trot prematurely, but what major leaguer who hits home runs hasn't done that? He's given it his all and wants to be on this team.

Honestly, we need to get off his back. He's young, he still has some maturing to do emotionally and mentally before he can handle his job as a major leaguer more seriously. Until then, we Marlins fans should be happy to see him play on the field and kind of tune out the silly things he says.

Everyone knows how bad Bonifacio's been

Rob Neyer knows of my plight.

It's probably been a few weeks since I've mentioned this, so here goes again: Bonifacio has been an absolute disaster. Among the 23 third basemen with enough plate appearances to qualify for a batting title (so far), Bonifacio ranks 21st in on-base percentage, 23rd in slugging percentage, and 23rd in OPS. He does have 11 steals ... but he's been caught trying four times and his defensive stats are lousy.

The most painful of his remaining lines:

Every day with Bonifacio in the lineup and Sanchez in the minors is just another day that the Marlins seem to care little about winning.

There isn't much more that needs to be said, he's been terrible and the front office has been slow in realizing this. Gaby Sanchez can't come soon enough to the majors.

Fish Bites

I'm dropping the date label on the Fish Bites pieces. The date's on top, ladies and gents, you can get a good look yourself! Anyway, on to the news and notes.

- Apparently Hanley Ramirez wasn't too happy about being hit by a pitch by Jays reliever Dirk Hayhurst yesterday, and wanted some retaliation as protection. Said Ramirez, in Spanish, "You know, incredible. There's going to come a point where I'm not going to feel protected. I'm going to be scared to hit a home run because I know I'm going to get hit."

I'm not a big fan of the barbarism that is throwing fastballs at other guys intentionally. I'm not exactly sure how that's supposed to help anyone. As a pitcher, you're giving up a base, and as a hitter, you're supposed to forget these sorts of things the next time you're up anyway. So you know I'm not a fan of how Hanley reacted to the situation here. But for him to say that he's going to be scared to hit a home run? Just because the other team is being moronic and childish doesn't the Marlins should follow suit. The way I see it, if he hits you, hit another home run. That should show them you're not afraid of the fastball.

- Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post blogs that Gaby Sanchez has moved to third base and might be on his way up to the big leagues. If so, this would be an obvious replacement for the struggling Emilio Bonifacio. I'm glad to see front office management (and this would be something the front office probably requested Triple-A New Orleans to do) is stepping up in trying to get a bat into third base. That being said, what Capozzi opens up afterwards was much more speculative and potentially devastating.

Capozzi mentions that Sanchez could take third base and move Bonifacio or Coghlan to their more naturla second base position, opening up Dan Uggla to be traded. The Marlins stand currently a game under .500 and, while it's still extremely early in the season, well within wild card reach, provided they start playing better. Of course, that sort of positioning doesn't imply that the Marlins won't make a move to help the team weather its limited finances as best it can. Uggla has been rumored to be involved in trade rumors ever since the team decided not to hand out a long-term deal to him after giving Hanley a six-year deal. This decision was absolutely correct; Uggla is 29 years old, is a below average defender at his current position, and figures to age in a not so graceful fashion. There was simply no reason to buy out any of his arbitration years for the likely $8 million a year it would have taken.

Right now, Uggla has trade value, and the Giants are rumored to be interested. But the Marlins would be silly to make a deal like this right now. If Uggla is dealt to the Giants, the team would suffer even more offensively than they have right now, especially if the plan was to move Bonifacio to second base. Furthermore, while the Giants do have an excellent set of prospects, none of those guys will be coming over to the Marlins in a trade. The Giants have made it very clear they're shopping starter Jonathan Sanchez, not top-flight prospects such as Madison Baumgarner or Tim Alderson. Sanchez is 26 years old and has electric stuff, but has yet to put it all together. His walk rate has jumped so far this season, up to a ridiculous 6.71 BB/9. His other peripherals are steady from last year, but the walk rate has bumped his FIP to 4.62 on the year. Do we really need another Andrew Miller-type pitcher in Marlins' staff?


- The Marlins apparently rejected a straight-up trade of Cody Ross for Jeff Francoeur. With all of Francoeur's struggles this year, I can't say I disagree. But let's look at both players' production this year. Francoeur has been awful this year, posting a .250/.284/.345 line that is down a bit from last year. But looking at some of his other stats, he's not faltering any from his rookie campaign. His GB/FB ratio is hovering around 1, as it has throughout his career. His LD% is at 20.7%, right around his career totals. His walk rate has basically been the same terrible total it always was, while his K% has actually gone down, currently standing at a career low 14.7%. As a result, his contact rate is up, so while he's swinging at everything, he's certainly hitting more of it. You'd expect that with a LD% at 20% and a decent contact rate, he'd be doing OK, but he's been horrific. The BABIP may have something to do with it; it's the same as last year's, when he had his worst season yet. In that analysis, Francoeur looks like a guy who's run into some bad luck and has one major hole in his game (he can't draw walks). That's not bad, but given his slightly above average glove (last year could have been a bit of an aberration in the field), he certainly could still play.

Ross has been as good in the field, if not better than Francoeur recently, plus he gets a bonus for being a passable center fielder. But as far as a hitting profile, Ross probably profiles as what Francoeur likely would be, a power-hitting outfielder with a poor eye for the strike zone. Cody is swinging at about 27% of balls outside the strike zone, a value that is not as extreme but similar in profile to Francoeur's. Cody's actually made less contact than Francoeur and has been significantly luckier (.309 BABIP vs. Francoeur's .278). The difference between the two has been in the power numbers. Cody's ISO stands at a robust .212, while Frenchy has a Bonifacio-esque .095.

Frenchy needs time in the minors to rebuild his swing and confidence. He'll never walk a ton, but if he can get his BA back up in the .270 range, combine that with his solid glove, he could pass as a decent right fielder. As for now, that trade simply would not have worked. Why acquire a younger player (Francoeur is 25) whose ceiling is the guy you have now (Cody is 29)? It would only work if you thought Francoeur could be better in a few years than Cody, but because Frenchy will never develop plate discipline, Ross is pretty much his ceiling.

Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton: Please update your stats!

This really isn't an embittered cry for just Mr. Waltz and Mr. Hutton, but rather for all sportscasters really. It's just that I hear Waltz and Hutton the most as I sit and watch Marlins games over telecasts by ESPN and Fox.

A couple of nights ago, on the first game of what would be a three-game sweep of the Jays, Tommy Hutton was mentioning that most Marlins fans probably don't know the Toronto players all that well. He mentioned in particular two guys at the top of the lineup, Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill, both having tremendous seasons at the plate. In talking about these two players, both Waltz and Hutton mentioned the ability for these guys to "set the table" and get on base for the heart of the lineup.

Key in on the words get on base here.

Those sound very familiar.

Those are the words in a particular stat.

Really now? Speak up, which statistic would this be?

Ahem, it's...

Ahem! That would be on-base percentage.

Marvelous, on-base percentage, or as it's often referred to, OBP. It's a measure of a player's ability not to make outs, more or less. It's the easiest measure for, well, the ability to get on base, that I know of. It's readily available and typically a part of every website's "numbers that quickly highlight a player's performance." You know, what the Triple Crown stats used to exclusively be.

In any case, Hutton mentions this, and following a graphic that shows that Scutaro leads all American League leadoff men in hits and walks, he references how Scutaro has a .300 batting average.

Here, the focus should be on the words hits and batting average.

But here's where perhaps I was most ticked. Scutaro walks and Hill steps to the plate, where Waltz and Hutton once again deservedly mention his excellent season so far. They again mention his on-base ability and go on to say that he is tied for the league lead in hits and is high on the list in batting average.

Again, hits and batting average.

Ahem...

Why is that, when we have a statistic that is a stand-in for a player's ability to get on base, a statistic which is named directly for such an ability, a readily available and totally transparent statistic, why do we still use batting average and counting stats to display on-base ability? Can someone mention to Waltz and Hutton that it's been six years since Moneyball was published, and OBP is mainstream? It took another 30-40 minutes before I saw anything in the way of on-base percentage showing up in the telecast of the game, and that was as a part of a "runners on vs. bases empty" split graphic, a situation where analyzing OBP is marginally important.

Look, I get that many viewers might not fully understand the non-Triple Crown stats, but I think it's about time someone indoctrinate them on OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS at least. I'm not clamoring for Hutton to quote WAR or even OPS+ values for every player; that type of work simply isn't feasible for a television sportscaster. An understanding of WAR on the side of the listener is necessary for you to even consider saying something remarkably radical-sounding such "Player X was worth about 3 wins last year." For a fan who knew nothing of things like Runs Created, Batting Runs Above Average, or wOBA, this "wins" concept attached to a player would make no sense. "How arbitrary, a win value for a player. Only pitchers get wins, and they're mentioned right there!" an unknowing fan would say.

Such statistics are problematic because they simply aren't transparent enough. Though most places that due to put WAR-like values up on their stat sheets for players do explain how they come to their conclusions, these sites are the farthest thing from the mind of a fan who only knows the Triple Crown stats. It takes knowledge of park factors and other statistics and factors not easily accessible to the average fan to measure even OPS+. We haven't even gone into the possibility of having to explain what replacement level means to the average baseball fan watching a broadcast; people get confused just reading it.

What I'm suggesting is simply putting a slash line, maybe OPS as well, on the graphics broadcasts show, alongside the traditional HR and RBI. I know no one will ever get rid of RBI's in the mainstream media. It's too ingrained in the minds of people who watch the game, even though the stat doesn't reveal anything about a player's true capability, and it's too important currently for fantasy baseball to take off the graphics and stop mentioning. But if the big scoreboards in parks now provide a player's slash lines, shouldn't TV broadcasts do the same? And shouldn't the broadcasters, one of whom (the color man) is supposed to be an expert on baseball, know enough about the statistics that are better performance indicators to make mention of said statistics more consistently?

This extends into defense as well. Waltz and Hutton had John Dewan over for an interview down in South Florida while he was pimping The Fielding Bible II. Of course, Dewan is the pioneer of +/-, which has proven to be a good defensive metric, on par with Mitchel Lichtman's UZR, which I reference here. While I certainly don't expect Waltz and Hutton to start rattling off +/- values for Marlins players, even if +/- is very intuitively easy to understand, I certainly expect them to stop utilizing inferior statistics such as errors and fielding percentage as a measure of excellent defense. Just recently, Waltz and Hutton were discussing the best defenses in the NL and AL, using fielding percentage to determine their answer. Now, the NL team was probably correct (the Phillies came out on top), but just because the results are right doesn't mean the methodology is wrong. Fielding percentage doesn't take range into account, but it's always quoted as gospel for defense, years after it's become a meaningless statistic.

This is more of a rant than an organized piece certainly. I can't help but get angry when I have to continuously hear that a player is having a great season because of his .300 batting average or his 100 RBI's. Please, free OPS from its bondage and let it loose upon the TV viewership. They'll get it, I swear.

Blogservations 06/14/09, Marlins 11, Blue Jays 3

The Marlins finish off a three-game sweep of the Jays in impressive fashion with an 11-3 win. Here are some of my thoughts on the performance.

Josh Johnson is going through the motions of becoming a true staff ace.

Today JJ did not necessarily have his best stuff, but the one number that did impress me the most was this: nine innings pitched. The complete game was JJ's second of the season, continuing a string of games where he has gone deep into games; this was his fifth straight start going seven or more innings. A sign of a true staff "ace," a term often thrown around and rarely truly applicable, is a guy who can pitch workhorse innings (that is, a lot of innings consistently) and pitch well in those increased innings. Johnson already has the filthy stuff to carry him to the top of any rotation, so it's good, especially being a recovering Tommy John surgery guy, to see him rack up the innings so smoothly.

Now, not all was rainbows and sunshine. His peripherals were not all that sharp today, with only six strikeouts to three walks. That's still a 2-to-1 K/BB ratio, a good ratio, but not great. More importantly, earlier in the week, after JJ spun an excellent game against the Cardinals, I mentioned that his HR/FB ratio was 2-3% lower than his career norms, and that as a result he had perhaps a deflated HR/9. Well, regression started hitting stride today, as the only runs Johnson allowed came off back-to-back home runs by Alex Rios and Kevin Millar. This isn't to say that Johnson will be handing out long balls like I dish out unsuccessful date requests to girls around the University, but we should expect some regression in his numbers and a subsequent rise in ERA and FIP. Not to worry everyone, he's still the best young starter we've got and, if the Marlins front office agrees, hopefully an Opening Day starter for years to come.

Fredi still doesn't know what on-base percentage means.

This has been ticking me off all year obviously, but it showed again when Fredi Gonzalez penciled in Emilio Bonifacio at the 2-hole again after two straight games with Ross Gload batting in that spot. Even if one were to consider what a "classic" #2 hitter is supposed to do, i.e. work pitch counts, hit for contact, bunt runners over, hit and run, all that "small ball" baseball that managers and broadcasters like to talk about but actually is only marginally useful because it often involves giving up outs, Bonifacio has to be the last guy to do this. When you have an extra hitter available, why not just shift your worst hitter to ninth in the order? You don't even have to worry about the pitcher's spot afterwards, you just line up your order from better/best hitters to worst hitter. I'm still confounded.

The BoniLine, 06/14/09

A convincing 11-3 Marlins win, and the BoniLine is proud to present a decent performance by Emilio Bonifacio!

Emilio Bonifacio: 6 PA, 2 H, 1 RBI, 2 K, WPA: .038

Best Performer
Ronny Paulino: 5 PA, 4 H, 2 1B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, WPA: .192

Paulino continues to swing a hot bat against lefties. Meanwhile, Bonifacio ends up third on the team in WPA, carried by an early game RBI to keep an inning alive, followed by the Marlins taking a huge lead and running low leverage situations the rest of the way. In reality, Bonifacio's day had very little true difference to Dan Uggla's day at the plate, and more players certainly impressed me over Boni. Still, not a bad game. I'd like to see some more line drives off of his bat, but a couple of ground ball singles is a decent start.

Blogservations 06/13/09, Marlins 6, Blue Jays 5

No BoniLine today, as Fredi gave him the day off in favor of Wes Helms. Still, a tight but very well-deserved victory for the Marlins over a good Jays team. Here are some of my thoughts on the game.

Sean West followed his masterpiece with a clunker.

Here's another solid reason why wins don't tell you anything. It was pretty visible to everyone there that Sean West could be beat out there, but the Jays were simply unable to get to him. In 5 2/3 innings, West walked four while striking out none and gave up two two-run homers in the process. His pitches, as one would expect in an outing like this, were not sharp. Watching him throughout, his velocity was way down, with his fastball sitting 87-89 MPH, only occasionally touching 90 MPH and going no higher. Color commentator Tommy Hutton mentioned that the Rogers Center radar gun looked a little slow, as evidenced by the uncharacteristic speeds for West and Leo Nunez. Still, West's fastball looked slow today, and he wasn't placing it anywhere effectively. The two home runs he allowed were big mistake pitches over the plate, and much of the time he spent either digging pitches into the dirt or missing in the strike zone. The Marlins should be considered lucky to get away with a win backed by a performance like this one.

The Marlins outfielders are locked in at the plate.

Last night Chris Coghlan put up a 4-for-5 line. Though he followed up last night with only one double today, the other two Marlins outfielders picked up the slack. Jeremy Hermida went 2-for-4 and Cody Ross went 3-for-4, and each of them smacked a two-run homer to produce the majority of the Fish's runs. Closing in on the midway mark for June, Hermida has posted an impressive .342/.432/.526 line for the month, good for a .410 wOBA. The most encouraging sign perhaps is the increased power; for the month Hermida has posted a .184 ISO, and in his last six games, he's knocked a double and three home runs. Not to be outdone, Cody Ross has put up a .275/.326/.475 line for the month and has powered the Marlins recently with two home runs and two doubles in the series, one of the doubles today coming off the top of the wall and looking conspicuously like a home run on video replay.

Combine the recent hot streaks with Coghlan's solid month and increasing power numbers and Ross Gload's quietly good season at the plate, and the Marlins suddenly have a bounty of useful offensive players who can play the outfield. I think Fredi should consider a lineup where Coghlan is moved to third base and Gload gets extra playing time in right field, even though his defense there is lacking. This would get the best bats in the lineup, even if it is only for one or two games a week versus right handers. It definitely seems like something to consider.

The bullpen looked spectacular.

A few games ago the pen struggled and Leo Nunez in particular surrendered the game winning run to St. Louis. Today the runs were allowed by West, but the pen came out and shut the door after an unearned made it a 6-5 game. Leo Nunez pitched an excellent 1 1/3 innings, striking out two in some very high leverage situations. Dan Meyer came in before him and knocked out Adam Lind in one of the tightest spots in the game, with runners on first and second with one out in the seventh inning and the Jays already with a run home. Finally, Matt Lindstrom gave up a leadoff hit but had no problems finishing off the top of the Jays order, thanks in some part to Marco Scutaro giving himself up for the sacrifice bunt. Lindstrom collected two easy outs in the highest leverage situations in the game, closing the door with a Vernon Wells strikeout.

The bullpen has had its ups and downs so far this year, trending down right now perhaps due to overwork, a situation that happened last year as well after the first half. Lindstrom has been wild all season long, and it has been torture to watch. But today Nunez and Lindstrom looked great and sealed a tough game for the Marlins. Hopefully this is a harbinger of things to come.

Blogservations 06/12/09, Marlins 7, Blue Jays 3

No Blogservations on the Cardinal's 6-5 comeback win over the Marlins, as I didn't catch any of it and saw very little in the way of signs. The only thing I can say is that Leo Nunez's poor peripherals are starting to catch up to him. He throws it well, but he walks too many guys to be effective. Also, he's literally missing bats like he hasn't done before (a 71.6% contact rate, down from the low 80's he's put up most of his career), and combining that with the very low .246 BABIP, I'd say his season so far has been more than a bit fluky, and now he's beginning to regress to what he actually is.

Let's move on to this game.

Ricky Nolasco looked like his old self.

This start was more indicative of the old Nolasco of last year than any of his previous starts. Maybe the Triple-A demotion worked and he got his act together, though it was doubtful his act was off to begin with. Before the demotion, his K/9 had increased from last year, though it's come with an increase in BB/9 as well. Today Nolasco posted an impressive nine strikeouts against only one walk. Had he scattered those five hits and walk a bit more, it's likely he would not have allowed much in the way of runs; that being said, a big issue Nolasco had been facing was the big inning. Outside of the fifth inning last night, the outing was very encouraging.

Nolasco's biggest problem is likely the .399 BABIP he's posted so far, which screams "regression to the mean." Still, a 24% LD% shows he's being hit harder this season, which hopefully is not a trend. Nolasco's working well, showing numbers very similar, if not better, than those of last year. The final resutls are finally starting to catch up.

The Marlins finally came up big in the clutch.

The high leverage plays finally started to go the Marlins' way. With the exception of Jorge Cantu's bases loaded ground out in the third inning, the Fish were able to deliver the big hits color commentator Tommy Hutton keeps clamoring for. It started with Hanley Ramirez's single in the seventh (a 3.58 Leverage Index) and culminated of course in the Cody Ross grand slam with the bases juiced (ironically only a 3.10 Leverage Index). I brought up the team's performance on plate appearances with a Leverage Index (LI) greater 2 in a previous game. Tonight, the club delivered in a big way, going 2 for 3 in 5 PA with LI over 2, with a Dan Uggla walk and a John Baker HBP as well. All in all, the team totaled a 0.391 WPA in those PA's, a rare "clutch" performance by the team.

Chris Coghlan is looking like a true leadoff man.

Fredi Gonzalez wisened up for last night's AL home game and batted Emilio Bonifacio, the team's worst hitter, in the characteristic ninth spot. While he struggled to an uneventful 0 for 4 night, the team's new leadoff hitter Chris Coghlan flourished, going 4 for 5 with 3 singles and a double. He also stole a base and scored twice, thanks to Hanley Ramirez's solid game. It was good to see Coghlan set the table against Toronto, a team that has an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup in Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. The Marlins' table-setting duo of Coghlan and Ross Gload combined for seven hits and two doubles in 10 PA, compiling a WPA of 0.171. If the team could get half that production from its leadoff and #2 hitters everyday, our offense would be much improved.

With Coghlan's ability to draw walks, he seems like a natural fit at the top of the order. Add to that his speed potential on the basepaths and the Fish have likely stumbled on a good choice for leadoff. As for the #2 guy, once the club starts playing NL teams again, it won't have the luxury of playing Gload at first base and having Cantu DH. Knowing that you're looking for OBP in your top of the lineup guys, as they get the most PA's and as a result should be the ones who use their opportunities most efficiently, the team should allow Jeremy Hermida to bat in the 2-hole again. He did this for much of the season last year before John Baker got the nod near the end of the season, but previously didn't deserve to be taking up that high slot due to an eroding OBP. Now his OBP stands at a robust .374, a number that would certainly hold up for a #2 hitter.

The other option the team should consider is another man who used to hit #2 for the club, Dan Uggla. Uggla hit in the 2-hole most of 2006, but was moved down in the order as a result of his power. At the time he also hadn't reached base at the clip he is now, and for the last two years he's shown dramatic improvement in his walks and OBP. In addition, Uggla has had a difficult time getting pitches to hit; a mere 47.1% of the pitches he's seen have been in the strikezone. Dave Cameron posted an interesting piece regarding a new strategy for #2 hitters, mostly putting players who are better fastball hitters but don't see fastballs normally into the 2-hole. If this strategy provided any sort of bonus benefit in addition to having Uggla's increasing plate selectivity, it might be worth a try.

The BoniLine, 06/12/2009

A quick BoniLine for tonight's excellent 7-3 win.

Emilio Bonifacio: 4 PA, 0 H, WPA: -.076

Best Performer:
Hanley Ramirez: 5 PA, 3 H, 3 1B, 1 SF, 3 RBI, WPA: .195

Granted, Bonifacio's line was uneventfully bad, as he had a low leverage index (0.75), bogged down by the extremely low leverage PA after Cody Ross's grand slam. Still, very characteristic of Bonifacio: 4 PA, 2 groundouts, 2 bunting outs, on bad bunts at that. The BoniLine trudges along...