The Real Worth of Lineup Tinkering

Yesterday in Fish Bites, I posted a link to an interesting quickie study using Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool of the potential for one of Tony LaRussa's famously quirky moves: batting the pitcher slot 8th instead of 9th. Here's a quick look at the results I calculated on the simulator myself.

The current lineup: 4.547 runs/game
The sensible lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and Baker: 4.646 runs/game
The LaRussa lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and the pitcher: 4.709 runs/game

The difference between the current lineup and the sensible one is worth a modest 16 runs over 162 games, but the difference between the current and LaRussa lineups was calculated at a 26 runs in 162 games.

As you can see, the difference between the current lineup and the LaRussa lineup is somewhat significant. 2.6 wins is nothing to scoff at; it's the approximate difference between an average player and Dan Uggla last year. But if you take a look at the difference between the sensible lineup and the LaRussa lineup, the run differential is less pronounced, approximately one win less.

Both of these results do come with signifcant caveats, namely that the statistics listed here are for about a third of a season's plate appearances and by no means stable yet. Sure, one and two wins sound like they matter and they do, given how we evaluate players with the latest run estimators and the closeness of playoff races these days; ask the Mets if they would've liked a one- or two-win improvement over Luis Castillo these last few years. But with only a a third of a season's worth of data and plate appearances, the inserted OBP and SLG values could be of little meaning. Rob Neyer pointed out an Alan Schwarz article in the New York Times earlier in the season about simulators and their ability to project baseball data; you can find Neyer's post here. Here the study mentioned was a difference between batting Alex Rodriguez cleanup vs. 9th in the Yankees lineup. Over 100 simulated seasons, the average differential was about 40 runs, or four wins. In comparison, our total projects a 1.6 win difference between batting the team's worst hitter (the pitcher) 8th or 9th in the lineup based on a third of a season's data. I find that difficult to believe.

Still, the results are significant in telling us something, and that something is not so much that the configuration of a pitcher batting 8th is impressive, but rather that the configuration of batting a player with a .291 OBP second is not. Plate appearances dominate the difference in run potential for lineups, because the more chances efficient and better players get at producing runs, the better those runs get produced. Bonifacio and his .273 wOBA are just not an efficient use of the second most amount of plate appearances for your team. Putting a much more reasonable player available to you at that slot and moving Bonifacio down in the order will provide a similar return.

Finally, this sort of batting order decision clearly takes a backseat to better player evaluation. Using our nifty tool, consider replacing Bonifacio in his current spot in the lineup with a league average player in the National League, sporting a .332 OBP and .404 SLG: 4.778 runs per game, a full 0.231 runs, or 37.4 more runs over the course of the full season. This is probably a bit of an overstatement as well, as Bonifacio was worth about -12.5 runs compared to the average over the first 286 plate appearances, and I can't imagine him getting anything more than 750 PA's over the full season batting #2 in the lineup. At 750 PA's and his current rate of hitting ineptitude, Bonifacio would be worth about 32 runs less than an average player with the bat. Even then, those values trump any lineup changes being made, proving that the best way to fix an ailing offense is usually to replace bad players with decent ones, not shuttling them around in the lineup.

As a final look at the study, and a way to make myself feel smarter, here's the lineup I designed in my head prior to using the tool, based on what I feel would be the best use of the team's limited OBP skills.

1) LF Coghlan
2) RF Hermida
3) SS Ramirez
4) 1B Cantu
5) 2B Uggla
6) CF Ross
7) C Baker
8) 3B Bonifacio
9) Pitcher

This lineup calculated to 4.690 runs per game. Not half bad. I can't wait to see when Gaby Sanchez comes up and fills in for Bonifacio's spot. We'll return and reexamine this later, with better sample sizes for players like Coghlan who currently haven't played enough yet.

Waltz, Hutton, and FishStripes: Broadcaster Quality Update

I sat in and watched about eight innings of tonight's ugly 8-3 loss to the Red Sox. I've got some opinions on the Marlins' play tonight, but I'll save that for Blogservations.

No, this part is designed to drop an update on my opinion of tonight's broadcast and what went down on it.

- There were about 10-15 mentions of how patient the Red Sox hitters are as a group. The majority, if not all of them, referenced OBP. I was especially happy to see Hutton pound on how high the top-of-the-lineup guys are in terms of OBP. A good chunk of me thinks he honestly gets that OBP is a big part of being useful at the top of the lineup; after all, the man's very smart to have worked this long in the business. Maybe he was emphasizing it because the Marlins don't do it.

Still, when you hear him talk about Bonifacio like he still has a shot as a leadoff man, you wonder. When you hear him advise Bonifacio to talk to Juan Pierre about the finer points of bunting, you raise your eyebrows. He needs help making contact and drawing walks, not bunting. JP can help the contact, but he's never had an eye for the zone.

By the way, still no mention of slugging percentage. I'm glad that they chose the better one of the OPS parts, but come on. Power is very well measured by SLG, everyone does it, and it's even the cooler, bigger number! Come on guys!

- Waltz made a long mention of Bill James on the broadcast as the two Marlins broadcasters discussed the balanced excellence of the Red Sox front office and scouting. As you know, the immortal Mr. James works for the Sox now, and Waltz expounded upon what James has done for the sabermetric community and the evolution of advanced statistics. There was about a ten second pause after Waltz finished where nothing was said during the broadcast. Waltz then went back to play-by-play. You kind of get the feeling Tommy Hutton wasn't a fan of Bill James.

- Here's what I found the most interesting. Our friends at FishStripes got a TV shoutout on Email Tuesday when dan 2.0 got his question aired and "answered" by the guys. The question asked about maybe moving Chris Coghlan/Dan Uggla into a combination of 2B/3B and playing Brett Carroll's weak bat and plus glove in the outfield. When I heard it, it got me all riled up, because I had the suggested idea too.

...If the club wanted to play players with nothing in the way of bats, why not move Brett Carroll to LF, where his superior glove could help out the struggling outfield defense. At least in this situation, Fredi wouldn't be tempted to give Brett Carroll a leadoff spot because of his "speed," and Carroll would bring more than lip service to the team's defense. They could try Coghlan at third, where he might have more success, and see if he's worth a long-term look, especially with Dan Uggla's ever-growing arbitration salary.

I know, tooting my own horn, but I liked the idea and I was glad to see that someone else had come up with it too. But I guess it was a little much to ask for a decent answer. Waltz froze for a second before proclaiming that it was a "good question," while Hutton went into a diversion about how he was sure Larry Beinfest, Fredi Gonzalez, and the rest of the brain trust thought of the idea. Then, without giving too much reasoning, Waltz waved it off by saying Bonifacio would be better than either of those guys at third, while Hutton claimed that management thought Coghlan profiled as an outfielder anyway.

These are the same two guys that claim Uggla's reputation is mostly based on the All-Star game and not the obvious lack of range and the statistical backup (career Range Runs at -11.3, though the numbers have been wildly incosistent). Do they think Uggla doesn't have the arm for the hot corner? If so, they should at least go out and say it. Coghlan seems to have a decent enough arm, certainly enough to handle left field. Why not try him at 3B before moving him to a completely foreign position? If the team's scouts honestly felt that he profiled more as an outfielder, why wouldn't they ask the minor league coaches to play him a bit in left field?

I enjoy Waltz's voice and work as a play-by-play guy, and he seems to keep himself informed of at least the people and players we go up against. Hutton clearly knows a lot about the game, but I feel as if he's one of those old timers who is well set in his ways and not looking to change the way he thinks about the game. That's fine for him as a fellow Marlins fan, but it certainly takes away from my enjoyment of the game when he mentions the old cliches of insider baseball instead of updating with the new knowledge now available.

In short, those two still have a ways to go to get a thumbs up from me.

Fish Bites

I'm dropping the date label on the Fish Bites pieces. The date's on top, ladies and gents, you can get a good look yourself! Anyway, on to the news and notes.

- Apparently Hanley Ramirez wasn't too happy about being hit by a pitch by Jays reliever Dirk Hayhurst yesterday, and wanted some retaliation as protection. Said Ramirez, in Spanish, "You know, incredible. There's going to come a point where I'm not going to feel protected. I'm going to be scared to hit a home run because I know I'm going to get hit."

I'm not a big fan of the barbarism that is throwing fastballs at other guys intentionally. I'm not exactly sure how that's supposed to help anyone. As a pitcher, you're giving up a base, and as a hitter, you're supposed to forget these sorts of things the next time you're up anyway. So you know I'm not a fan of how Hanley reacted to the situation here. But for him to say that he's going to be scared to hit a home run? Just because the other team is being moronic and childish doesn't the Marlins should follow suit. The way I see it, if he hits you, hit another home run. That should show them you're not afraid of the fastball.

- Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post blogs that Gaby Sanchez has moved to third base and might be on his way up to the big leagues. If so, this would be an obvious replacement for the struggling Emilio Bonifacio. I'm glad to see front office management (and this would be something the front office probably requested Triple-A New Orleans to do) is stepping up in trying to get a bat into third base. That being said, what Capozzi opens up afterwards was much more speculative and potentially devastating.

Capozzi mentions that Sanchez could take third base and move Bonifacio or Coghlan to their more naturla second base position, opening up Dan Uggla to be traded. The Marlins stand currently a game under .500 and, while it's still extremely early in the season, well within wild card reach, provided they start playing better. Of course, that sort of positioning doesn't imply that the Marlins won't make a move to help the team weather its limited finances as best it can. Uggla has been rumored to be involved in trade rumors ever since the team decided not to hand out a long-term deal to him after giving Hanley a six-year deal. This decision was absolutely correct; Uggla is 29 years old, is a below average defender at his current position, and figures to age in a not so graceful fashion. There was simply no reason to buy out any of his arbitration years for the likely $8 million a year it would have taken.

Right now, Uggla has trade value, and the Giants are rumored to be interested. But the Marlins would be silly to make a deal like this right now. If Uggla is dealt to the Giants, the team would suffer even more offensively than they have right now, especially if the plan was to move Bonifacio to second base. Furthermore, while the Giants do have an excellent set of prospects, none of those guys will be coming over to the Marlins in a trade. The Giants have made it very clear they're shopping starter Jonathan Sanchez, not top-flight prospects such as Madison Baumgarner or Tim Alderson. Sanchez is 26 years old and has electric stuff, but has yet to put it all together. His walk rate has jumped so far this season, up to a ridiculous 6.71 BB/9. His other peripherals are steady from last year, but the walk rate has bumped his FIP to 4.62 on the year. Do we really need another Andrew Miller-type pitcher in Marlins' staff?


- The Marlins apparently rejected a straight-up trade of Cody Ross for Jeff Francoeur. With all of Francoeur's struggles this year, I can't say I disagree. But let's look at both players' production this year. Francoeur has been awful this year, posting a .250/.284/.345 line that is down a bit from last year. But looking at some of his other stats, he's not faltering any from his rookie campaign. His GB/FB ratio is hovering around 1, as it has throughout his career. His LD% is at 20.7%, right around his career totals. His walk rate has basically been the same terrible total it always was, while his K% has actually gone down, currently standing at a career low 14.7%. As a result, his contact rate is up, so while he's swinging at everything, he's certainly hitting more of it. You'd expect that with a LD% at 20% and a decent contact rate, he'd be doing OK, but he's been horrific. The BABIP may have something to do with it; it's the same as last year's, when he had his worst season yet. In that analysis, Francoeur looks like a guy who's run into some bad luck and has one major hole in his game (he can't draw walks). That's not bad, but given his slightly above average glove (last year could have been a bit of an aberration in the field), he certainly could still play.

Ross has been as good in the field, if not better than Francoeur recently, plus he gets a bonus for being a passable center fielder. But as far as a hitting profile, Ross probably profiles as what Francoeur likely would be, a power-hitting outfielder with a poor eye for the strike zone. Cody is swinging at about 27% of balls outside the strike zone, a value that is not as extreme but similar in profile to Francoeur's. Cody's actually made less contact than Francoeur and has been significantly luckier (.309 BABIP vs. Francoeur's .278). The difference between the two has been in the power numbers. Cody's ISO stands at a robust .212, while Frenchy has a Bonifacio-esque .095.

Frenchy needs time in the minors to rebuild his swing and confidence. He'll never walk a ton, but if he can get his BA back up in the .270 range, combine that with his solid glove, he could pass as a decent right fielder. As for now, that trade simply would not have worked. Why acquire a younger player (Francoeur is 25) whose ceiling is the guy you have now (Cody is 29)? It would only work if you thought Francoeur could be better in a few years than Cody, but because Frenchy will never develop plate discipline, Ross is pretty much his ceiling.

Blogservations 06/12/09, Marlins 7, Blue Jays 3

No Blogservations on the Cardinal's 6-5 comeback win over the Marlins, as I didn't catch any of it and saw very little in the way of signs. The only thing I can say is that Leo Nunez's poor peripherals are starting to catch up to him. He throws it well, but he walks too many guys to be effective. Also, he's literally missing bats like he hasn't done before (a 71.6% contact rate, down from the low 80's he's put up most of his career), and combining that with the very low .246 BABIP, I'd say his season so far has been more than a bit fluky, and now he's beginning to regress to what he actually is.

Let's move on to this game.

Ricky Nolasco looked like his old self.

This start was more indicative of the old Nolasco of last year than any of his previous starts. Maybe the Triple-A demotion worked and he got his act together, though it was doubtful his act was off to begin with. Before the demotion, his K/9 had increased from last year, though it's come with an increase in BB/9 as well. Today Nolasco posted an impressive nine strikeouts against only one walk. Had he scattered those five hits and walk a bit more, it's likely he would not have allowed much in the way of runs; that being said, a big issue Nolasco had been facing was the big inning. Outside of the fifth inning last night, the outing was very encouraging.

Nolasco's biggest problem is likely the .399 BABIP he's posted so far, which screams "regression to the mean." Still, a 24% LD% shows he's being hit harder this season, which hopefully is not a trend. Nolasco's working well, showing numbers very similar, if not better, than those of last year. The final resutls are finally starting to catch up.

The Marlins finally came up big in the clutch.

The high leverage plays finally started to go the Marlins' way. With the exception of Jorge Cantu's bases loaded ground out in the third inning, the Fish were able to deliver the big hits color commentator Tommy Hutton keeps clamoring for. It started with Hanley Ramirez's single in the seventh (a 3.58 Leverage Index) and culminated of course in the Cody Ross grand slam with the bases juiced (ironically only a 3.10 Leverage Index). I brought up the team's performance on plate appearances with a Leverage Index (LI) greater 2 in a previous game. Tonight, the club delivered in a big way, going 2 for 3 in 5 PA with LI over 2, with a Dan Uggla walk and a John Baker HBP as well. All in all, the team totaled a 0.391 WPA in those PA's, a rare "clutch" performance by the team.

Chris Coghlan is looking like a true leadoff man.

Fredi Gonzalez wisened up for last night's AL home game and batted Emilio Bonifacio, the team's worst hitter, in the characteristic ninth spot. While he struggled to an uneventful 0 for 4 night, the team's new leadoff hitter Chris Coghlan flourished, going 4 for 5 with 3 singles and a double. He also stole a base and scored twice, thanks to Hanley Ramirez's solid game. It was good to see Coghlan set the table against Toronto, a team that has an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup in Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. The Marlins' table-setting duo of Coghlan and Ross Gload combined for seven hits and two doubles in 10 PA, compiling a WPA of 0.171. If the team could get half that production from its leadoff and #2 hitters everyday, our offense would be much improved.

With Coghlan's ability to draw walks, he seems like a natural fit at the top of the order. Add to that his speed potential on the basepaths and the Fish have likely stumbled on a good choice for leadoff. As for the #2 guy, once the club starts playing NL teams again, it won't have the luxury of playing Gload at first base and having Cantu DH. Knowing that you're looking for OBP in your top of the lineup guys, as they get the most PA's and as a result should be the ones who use their opportunities most efficiently, the team should allow Jeremy Hermida to bat in the 2-hole again. He did this for much of the season last year before John Baker got the nod near the end of the season, but previously didn't deserve to be taking up that high slot due to an eroding OBP. Now his OBP stands at a robust .374, a number that would certainly hold up for a #2 hitter.

The other option the team should consider is another man who used to hit #2 for the club, Dan Uggla. Uggla hit in the 2-hole most of 2006, but was moved down in the order as a result of his power. At the time he also hadn't reached base at the clip he is now, and for the last two years he's shown dramatic improvement in his walks and OBP. In addition, Uggla has had a difficult time getting pitches to hit; a mere 47.1% of the pitches he's seen have been in the strikezone. Dave Cameron posted an interesting piece regarding a new strategy for #2 hitters, mostly putting players who are better fastball hitters but don't see fastballs normally into the 2-hole. If this strategy provided any sort of bonus benefit in addition to having Uggla's increasing plate selectivity, it might be worth a try.