Blogservations 06/13/09, Marlins 6, Blue Jays 5

No BoniLine today, as Fredi gave him the day off in favor of Wes Helms. Still, a tight but very well-deserved victory for the Marlins over a good Jays team. Here are some of my thoughts on the game.

Sean West followed his masterpiece with a clunker.

Here's another solid reason why wins don't tell you anything. It was pretty visible to everyone there that Sean West could be beat out there, but the Jays were simply unable to get to him. In 5 2/3 innings, West walked four while striking out none and gave up two two-run homers in the process. His pitches, as one would expect in an outing like this, were not sharp. Watching him throughout, his velocity was way down, with his fastball sitting 87-89 MPH, only occasionally touching 90 MPH and going no higher. Color commentator Tommy Hutton mentioned that the Rogers Center radar gun looked a little slow, as evidenced by the uncharacteristic speeds for West and Leo Nunez. Still, West's fastball looked slow today, and he wasn't placing it anywhere effectively. The two home runs he allowed were big mistake pitches over the plate, and much of the time he spent either digging pitches into the dirt or missing in the strike zone. The Marlins should be considered lucky to get away with a win backed by a performance like this one.

The Marlins outfielders are locked in at the plate.

Last night Chris Coghlan put up a 4-for-5 line. Though he followed up last night with only one double today, the other two Marlins outfielders picked up the slack. Jeremy Hermida went 2-for-4 and Cody Ross went 3-for-4, and each of them smacked a two-run homer to produce the majority of the Fish's runs. Closing in on the midway mark for June, Hermida has posted an impressive .342/.432/.526 line for the month, good for a .410 wOBA. The most encouraging sign perhaps is the increased power; for the month Hermida has posted a .184 ISO, and in his last six games, he's knocked a double and three home runs. Not to be outdone, Cody Ross has put up a .275/.326/.475 line for the month and has powered the Marlins recently with two home runs and two doubles in the series, one of the doubles today coming off the top of the wall and looking conspicuously like a home run on video replay.

Combine the recent hot streaks with Coghlan's solid month and increasing power numbers and Ross Gload's quietly good season at the plate, and the Marlins suddenly have a bounty of useful offensive players who can play the outfield. I think Fredi should consider a lineup where Coghlan is moved to third base and Gload gets extra playing time in right field, even though his defense there is lacking. This would get the best bats in the lineup, even if it is only for one or two games a week versus right handers. It definitely seems like something to consider.

The bullpen looked spectacular.

A few games ago the pen struggled and Leo Nunez in particular surrendered the game winning run to St. Louis. Today the runs were allowed by West, but the pen came out and shut the door after an unearned made it a 6-5 game. Leo Nunez pitched an excellent 1 1/3 innings, striking out two in some very high leverage situations. Dan Meyer came in before him and knocked out Adam Lind in one of the tightest spots in the game, with runners on first and second with one out in the seventh inning and the Jays already with a run home. Finally, Matt Lindstrom gave up a leadoff hit but had no problems finishing off the top of the Jays order, thanks in some part to Marco Scutaro giving himself up for the sacrifice bunt. Lindstrom collected two easy outs in the highest leverage situations in the game, closing the door with a Vernon Wells strikeout.

The bullpen has had its ups and downs so far this year, trending down right now perhaps due to overwork, a situation that happened last year as well after the first half. Lindstrom has been wild all season long, and it has been torture to watch. But today Nunez and Lindstrom looked great and sealed a tough game for the Marlins. Hopefully this is a harbinger of things to come.

Fish Bites, 06/12/2009

I'll be attempting to put up a regular news and notes column highlighting the day's Florida Marlins news, along with any other interesting tidbits around Major League Baseball. Let's dive into today's links.

- MLB.com reports that manager Fredi Gonzalez expects it will be another three or four days until Anibal Sanchez can start throwing, meaning there's no chance he'll be available to pitch when he's first eligible to come off the DL June 18. With Sean West's last gem and how the rest of staff has performed admirably, I don't think we'll miss Sanchez and his current 5.22 FIP. I don't doubt some of that was his shoulder, but he'd been pitching poorly before his last DL stint and all the way back into when he first came back midseason last year. Maybe something's still wrong with him, a Triple-A stint or extended rehab session in the minors may be in the works.

- Speaking of the rotation, Dave Hyde of the Sun-Sentinel has not given up on the Marlins' season yet, and it's because the young starters are starting to get it. I'm just as much of a fan of our young staff, but there is work to be done. It's been noted that the Marlins' starters have increased their K/9 and decreased their BB/9, typically a great sign, but when two of your three main cogs are giving around 1.5 HR/9, it's going to be tough to win back this season. I love how Miller has been playing as of late, and if he can keep his walks down, he'll be a mainstay. Chris Volstad's HR/FB is likely fluky and should come down, but Ricky Nolasco's HR/FB has remained around his career totals, with his HR/9 up 0.2. I'm certain that if he can get that value down, his numbers will look more like those of last year, but it remains to be seen. I'm still optimistic.

- The Palm Beach Post wraps up the Marlins' draft, noting that half of the team's selections were pitchers. No real surprises here, folks. Larry Beinfest and company run this organization excellently, and if there's one thing we've learned about their style, which has seemed to work well so far, is that they stock up on pitching, especially high school arms ala Chris Volstad. Here's hoping that Chad James kid can bring it, along with the rest of the team's new arms.

- MLB.com also has a random piece on the fastest player in baseball. Lot's of typical names, no surprises here. Marlins third base coach Bo Porter went with the homer pick of Emilio Bonifacio, though I can't imagine he'd know that well since Bonifacio is hardly on base. Similarly, Braves catcher Brian McCann chose Michael Bourn and Willy Taveras, two guys who would be somewhat lucky to have an OBP above .310. In all honesty, I'm really tired of the fast leadoff man ideal. Can we find guys like Taveras or Joey Gathright that can actually get on base? Seems like every speedster has a horrendous bat and, even if they could draw walks, pitchers just pound the strike zone and dare them to hit more than a weak grounder up the middle. Jose Reyes, please lead the way.

- I actually almost forgot this one. Witness Kansas City vs. Cleveland last night, and in particular the highlights of the game winning hit by Mark DeRosa. That bird cannot be feeling well this morning.

Blogservations 06/08/09, Marlins 4, Giants 0

I came in late for the game, stepping in during the bottom of the 5th inning. I was pleasantly surprised to see the team up 3-0 and threatening with the bases loaded and two outs, but with Ronny Paulino's groundout, the inning ended in typical Marlins fashion this year. The surprise silver lining for me was that I got to see a row of zeroes on Giants' portion of the column, revealing that Sean West was pitching a gem opposite Randy Johnson.

In any case, here's a few of my observations from the game:

Brett Carroll came up with some ironic timing for a hitting clinic.

He'll never be confused with anything resembling a good hitter, but the one thing Brett Carroll has brought this year in limited innings is a solid outfield glove. And seeing the latest UZR values for the outfielders the Marlins are throwing out there, a solid glove might be able to help the squad win a game or two more. He couldn't be worse than Emilio Bonifacio, could he?

Well, today Fredi gave Bonifacio and Jeremy Hermida the day off, slotting Wes Helms at third and Carroll in right field. Carroll surprisingly did not disappoint with the bat, hitting a three-run home run, his first as a major leaguer, that single-handedly added 21% to the Win Expectancy for the Fish. He added a triple and bunt single to those totals, going 3 for 4 for the night.

I maintain that the team has could have enough depth in the outfield to start Carroll in either left or right field and Hermida at the other side. Fredi likes to bring Carroll in late as a defensive replacement, but at this stage, his bat is no worse than Bonifacio's and his plus glove can be in the game full-time. In just 77 innings of work, Carroll has provided a 5.7 UZR. Of course, small sample size is a big factor here. Looking at his career outfield totals, he's posted a 7.9 UZR in 237 innings, a decent indicator of a good glove.

This would leave the team with Ross Gload as its onyl backup outfielder, so perhaps this strategy should be held until Alfredo Amezaga returns from the DL, which from what I hear isn't anytime soon. Still, after advocating Carroll to start, he certainly backed me up with a good performance.

Sean West showed some impressive stuff.

West ranked as the organization's 4th best prospect and top pitching prospect coming into this year, according to Baseball America. He had been injured in 2007 after a very solid 2006 in low-A, but recovered nicely in 2008. After a slew of injuries and ineffective starts from various Marlins starters, West got the call from AA and has done decently so far. His 5.26 FIP was heavily influenced by his start versus the Brewers, where he was hammered in four innings of work. But his other two starts showed promise, as the peripherals were fine (7/5 K/BB in 12 innings of work, 1 HR allowed) for a 22 year-old fresh off his first 8 starts at AA.

Tonight West put up a gem against the Giants, however. Having watched him starting in the sixth inning, I saw his fastball sitting at 90-92 MPH and a nasty-looking slider in the low-mid 80's with good lateral and downward movement. I'm in no ways a baseball scout, so all I can say is what I saw, and what I saw was some solid movement on his breaking balls that were getting hitters to buckle and miss on many occasions. He was spotting the fastball decently, though the Giants weren't doing much with the ones he was missing.

The best part perhaps was revealed in his peripherals. In eight innings of work, he put up 6 K and only 1 BB, scattering 2 hits. That's good stuff, and it shows some of his ability to miss bats that had not been seen all that much in his previous starts. Here's hoping tonight is the start of a good run for West the rest of the way through his major league stint this year. I suspect we'll see him back in AA when the injury to Anibal Sanchez clears up and he's ready to start again.

I'm anxious to see more of Chris Coghlan.

Coghlan looked great as a minor leaguer last year and was poised to be brought to big leagues this season. But with 2B blocked by Dan Uggla (and the team's refusal to move him out of the position despite his poor range), Coghlan would have to find a new position to play. With Bonifacio struggling at the time of his call-up, many figured that would be third base, but Fredi's insistance on playing Bonifacio moved Coghlan to left field. While Coghlan's current line of .224/.350/.329 isn't lighting up the sky, it's his OBP that intrigues me and leaves me wanting to see more.

The Marlins have quite a few players in their lineup that struggle with getting on base. Bonifacio and his terrible numbers aside, we also have low OBP's on players like Cody Ross (.305) and Jorge Cantu (.339) because they lack the patience for walks. Cantu so far has posted a 6.5% BB rate, while Ross himself has a 6.1% BB rate. Three Marlin's regulars are posting BB rates above 10%: John Baker, who seems to be getting 2/3 of the catcher PA only, Jeremy Hermida, who seems to have lost all semblance of power and is in that sense the opposite of Ross, and Dan Uggla, who is just now returning to peak form from some bad BABIP karma.

Coghlan shows a robust 16.7% BB rate early in the season and has the .350 OBP that is at least a little deserving of a leadoff spot. All of this is in a small sample size, so we have to take it with a grain of salt. But if he can provide this kind of OBP and increase his power numbers a bit more (he is currently posting a weak 11.9% line drive % (LD%) which I suspect doesn't match his minor league track record and should receive a decent bump, which should help his currently low BABIP), he could be the kind of leadoff hitter the team needs to compete offensively.

However, that kind of expectation may be a tad overzealous. zIPS projects a .241/.327/.353 finish to Coghlan's year, with a BB rate down to 11.0%, closer to his minor league career values. A line like that wouldn't exactly be a cup of tea, but the team could do worse with the talent it currently has.