The Real Worth of Lineup Tinkering

Yesterday in Fish Bites, I posted a link to an interesting quickie study using Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool of the potential for one of Tony LaRussa's famously quirky moves: batting the pitcher slot 8th instead of 9th. Here's a quick look at the results I calculated on the simulator myself.

The current lineup: 4.547 runs/game
The sensible lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and Baker: 4.646 runs/game
The LaRussa lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and the pitcher: 4.709 runs/game

The difference between the current lineup and the sensible one is worth a modest 16 runs over 162 games, but the difference between the current and LaRussa lineups was calculated at a 26 runs in 162 games.

As you can see, the difference between the current lineup and the LaRussa lineup is somewhat significant. 2.6 wins is nothing to scoff at; it's the approximate difference between an average player and Dan Uggla last year. But if you take a look at the difference between the sensible lineup and the LaRussa lineup, the run differential is less pronounced, approximately one win less.

Both of these results do come with signifcant caveats, namely that the statistics listed here are for about a third of a season's plate appearances and by no means stable yet. Sure, one and two wins sound like they matter and they do, given how we evaluate players with the latest run estimators and the closeness of playoff races these days; ask the Mets if they would've liked a one- or two-win improvement over Luis Castillo these last few years. But with only a a third of a season's worth of data and plate appearances, the inserted OBP and SLG values could be of little meaning. Rob Neyer pointed out an Alan Schwarz article in the New York Times earlier in the season about simulators and their ability to project baseball data; you can find Neyer's post here. Here the study mentioned was a difference between batting Alex Rodriguez cleanup vs. 9th in the Yankees lineup. Over 100 simulated seasons, the average differential was about 40 runs, or four wins. In comparison, our total projects a 1.6 win difference between batting the team's worst hitter (the pitcher) 8th or 9th in the lineup based on a third of a season's data. I find that difficult to believe.

Still, the results are significant in telling us something, and that something is not so much that the configuration of a pitcher batting 8th is impressive, but rather that the configuration of batting a player with a .291 OBP second is not. Plate appearances dominate the difference in run potential for lineups, because the more chances efficient and better players get at producing runs, the better those runs get produced. Bonifacio and his .273 wOBA are just not an efficient use of the second most amount of plate appearances for your team. Putting a much more reasonable player available to you at that slot and moving Bonifacio down in the order will provide a similar return.

Finally, this sort of batting order decision clearly takes a backseat to better player evaluation. Using our nifty tool, consider replacing Bonifacio in his current spot in the lineup with a league average player in the National League, sporting a .332 OBP and .404 SLG: 4.778 runs per game, a full 0.231 runs, or 37.4 more runs over the course of the full season. This is probably a bit of an overstatement as well, as Bonifacio was worth about -12.5 runs compared to the average over the first 286 plate appearances, and I can't imagine him getting anything more than 750 PA's over the full season batting #2 in the lineup. At 750 PA's and his current rate of hitting ineptitude, Bonifacio would be worth about 32 runs less than an average player with the bat. Even then, those values trump any lineup changes being made, proving that the best way to fix an ailing offense is usually to replace bad players with decent ones, not shuttling them around in the lineup.

As a final look at the study, and a way to make myself feel smarter, here's the lineup I designed in my head prior to using the tool, based on what I feel would be the best use of the team's limited OBP skills.

1) LF Coghlan
2) RF Hermida
3) SS Ramirez
4) 1B Cantu
5) 2B Uggla
6) CF Ross
7) C Baker
8) 3B Bonifacio
9) Pitcher

This lineup calculated to 4.690 runs per game. Not half bad. I can't wait to see when Gaby Sanchez comes up and fills in for Bonifacio's spot. We'll return and reexamine this later, with better sample sizes for players like Coghlan who currently haven't played enough yet.

Fish Bites

Marlins-related business, dead ahead.

- HBPGate, as I began referring to it seconds ago, is over, according to Fredi Gonzalez. Good to hear it was handled well. Best line in the whole situation though?

“I want to apologize for my tirade,” Gonzalez said. “I know you guys are trying to do your jobs and everything. I try to protect my team. I’m like a big bear with baby cubs I guess.”

Fredi is the big mama bear, and the Marlins are the little cubs? Silly images aside, I'm sure he tore into the cub that got us into this mess in the first place. Or at least he better have. Don't be coddling our cubs now, Big Mama.

- The sale of the Marlins' new stadium bonds has been put on hold, Matthew Haggman of the Herald reports. This is apparently due to an emergency motion filed on Monday for a temporary injunction on construction. Combine this with the Wachovia situation. If you couldn't already tell, this has been a massive mess from the start. Just goes to show that if people don't want it, it's going to take hell for even politicians and rich businessmen to make it happen.

- Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post's Fish Tank blog commends Burke Badenhop on his excellent effort in relief last night. The Hopper was unspectacularly solid, striking out only two while walking two and scattering four hits, though he did indeed not allow any runs charged to him. Capozzi points out Badenhop wasn't happy with the runs he let through that were charged to Chris Volstad. As well he shouldn't be.

- R.J Anderson on the worst regular in baseball. And your winner is...Brian Giles of San Diego. Interesting case for Giles, who had a solid year last season and blocked a deal to the Red Sox. But you and I both know who I wanted to get the nod.

-MLB.com Marlins site has an excellent article profiling the difficulty that is the Road to the Show. John Baker is on there prominently, and it's definitely an interesting read into the perspective of the long-time minor leaguer.

- And finally, our first backlink, courtesy of our friends at FishStripes! Thanks to the gang over there, looking forward to working with you guys to keep a healthy Marlins fan community going.

Hanley Ramirez mad at HBP, fans' heads explode

True, as Marlins fans we don't see much in the way of media coverage. But when Hanley Ramirez got a bit prissy about being hit by a pitch, and it followed with Fredi Gonzalez went berserker rage on the media (and likely Hanley as well), well, the stories came a' flying, or as "a' flying" as Marlins stories get. Here's fellow Marlins blog FishStripes take on the issue.

Dude, I've got news for you, you didn't hit a home run in the series and in fact you weren't even the star of the offensive for the series. Also, you were not the only one to get plunked. In fact, you are not even leading the team in hit by pitches or in home runs.

Is the "I'm going to be scared to hit a home run because I know I'm going to get hit" in chapter two of the How to be a Prima Dona Handbook?

The other part of it is, by publicly saying you are very easy to intimidate to the point you will stop trying, I can guarantee you will get hit and it won't matter how many times the Marlins retaliate, the other team will make you a target.

In the future if Ramirez has a problem he should take it up with Fredi behind close doors. It is the professional way to handle things.

Now, there are some things I can go along with on that, and some things I can't. I agree that what Hanley said was stupid, very stupid. And I also agree that it should have been kept within closed doors, within the clubhouse.

But come on. So what if he wasn't the only person hit? So what if he isn't the team's leader in HBP or home runs? So what if he wasn't the best player in the series (and in terms of Win Probability Added, he wasn't half bad)? He was one of the people hit. He felt bad about the Fish not retaliating, and whether it was right or wrong (my personal opinion is that the Marlins were right), it doesn't mean it's not a legitimate concern in the baseball world.

Let's not confuse why Hanley's comment was dumb. It wasn't dumb because he doesn't lead the team in home runs. It was dumb because saying that kind of stuff to the public media is dumb. He had every right to feel the way he did, just not to say it into the microphone for the crowd to hear.

Now FishStripes was not so harsh, the whole finger-wagging "you weren't even..." section aside. In fact, they were pretty light-handed about the affair, and I liked the way they handled it for the most part. What I haven't liked are the message board responses calling for Hanley's head and wondering why he doesn't work hard or doesn't give his full effort. From what I've seen, he's given his max effort the majority of the time. I haven't seen him dog a grounder or lazy out an infield play. He has occasionally gone into a home run trot prematurely, but what major leaguer who hits home runs hasn't done that? He's given it his all and wants to be on this team.

Honestly, we need to get off his back. He's young, he still has some maturing to do emotionally and mentally before he can handle his job as a major leaguer more seriously. Until then, we Marlins fans should be happy to see him play on the field and kind of tune out the silly things he says.

Fish Bites

I'm dropping the date label on the Fish Bites pieces. The date's on top, ladies and gents, you can get a good look yourself! Anyway, on to the news and notes.

- Apparently Hanley Ramirez wasn't too happy about being hit by a pitch by Jays reliever Dirk Hayhurst yesterday, and wanted some retaliation as protection. Said Ramirez, in Spanish, "You know, incredible. There's going to come a point where I'm not going to feel protected. I'm going to be scared to hit a home run because I know I'm going to get hit."

I'm not a big fan of the barbarism that is throwing fastballs at other guys intentionally. I'm not exactly sure how that's supposed to help anyone. As a pitcher, you're giving up a base, and as a hitter, you're supposed to forget these sorts of things the next time you're up anyway. So you know I'm not a fan of how Hanley reacted to the situation here. But for him to say that he's going to be scared to hit a home run? Just because the other team is being moronic and childish doesn't the Marlins should follow suit. The way I see it, if he hits you, hit another home run. That should show them you're not afraid of the fastball.

- Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post blogs that Gaby Sanchez has moved to third base and might be on his way up to the big leagues. If so, this would be an obvious replacement for the struggling Emilio Bonifacio. I'm glad to see front office management (and this would be something the front office probably requested Triple-A New Orleans to do) is stepping up in trying to get a bat into third base. That being said, what Capozzi opens up afterwards was much more speculative and potentially devastating.

Capozzi mentions that Sanchez could take third base and move Bonifacio or Coghlan to their more naturla second base position, opening up Dan Uggla to be traded. The Marlins stand currently a game under .500 and, while it's still extremely early in the season, well within wild card reach, provided they start playing better. Of course, that sort of positioning doesn't imply that the Marlins won't make a move to help the team weather its limited finances as best it can. Uggla has been rumored to be involved in trade rumors ever since the team decided not to hand out a long-term deal to him after giving Hanley a six-year deal. This decision was absolutely correct; Uggla is 29 years old, is a below average defender at his current position, and figures to age in a not so graceful fashion. There was simply no reason to buy out any of his arbitration years for the likely $8 million a year it would have taken.

Right now, Uggla has trade value, and the Giants are rumored to be interested. But the Marlins would be silly to make a deal like this right now. If Uggla is dealt to the Giants, the team would suffer even more offensively than they have right now, especially if the plan was to move Bonifacio to second base. Furthermore, while the Giants do have an excellent set of prospects, none of those guys will be coming over to the Marlins in a trade. The Giants have made it very clear they're shopping starter Jonathan Sanchez, not top-flight prospects such as Madison Baumgarner or Tim Alderson. Sanchez is 26 years old and has electric stuff, but has yet to put it all together. His walk rate has jumped so far this season, up to a ridiculous 6.71 BB/9. His other peripherals are steady from last year, but the walk rate has bumped his FIP to 4.62 on the year. Do we really need another Andrew Miller-type pitcher in Marlins' staff?


- The Marlins apparently rejected a straight-up trade of Cody Ross for Jeff Francoeur. With all of Francoeur's struggles this year, I can't say I disagree. But let's look at both players' production this year. Francoeur has been awful this year, posting a .250/.284/.345 line that is down a bit from last year. But looking at some of his other stats, he's not faltering any from his rookie campaign. His GB/FB ratio is hovering around 1, as it has throughout his career. His LD% is at 20.7%, right around his career totals. His walk rate has basically been the same terrible total it always was, while his K% has actually gone down, currently standing at a career low 14.7%. As a result, his contact rate is up, so while he's swinging at everything, he's certainly hitting more of it. You'd expect that with a LD% at 20% and a decent contact rate, he'd be doing OK, but he's been horrific. The BABIP may have something to do with it; it's the same as last year's, when he had his worst season yet. In that analysis, Francoeur looks like a guy who's run into some bad luck and has one major hole in his game (he can't draw walks). That's not bad, but given his slightly above average glove (last year could have been a bit of an aberration in the field), he certainly could still play.

Ross has been as good in the field, if not better than Francoeur recently, plus he gets a bonus for being a passable center fielder. But as far as a hitting profile, Ross probably profiles as what Francoeur likely would be, a power-hitting outfielder with a poor eye for the strike zone. Cody is swinging at about 27% of balls outside the strike zone, a value that is not as extreme but similar in profile to Francoeur's. Cody's actually made less contact than Francoeur and has been significantly luckier (.309 BABIP vs. Francoeur's .278). The difference between the two has been in the power numbers. Cody's ISO stands at a robust .212, while Frenchy has a Bonifacio-esque .095.

Frenchy needs time in the minors to rebuild his swing and confidence. He'll never walk a ton, but if he can get his BA back up in the .270 range, combine that with his solid glove, he could pass as a decent right fielder. As for now, that trade simply would not have worked. Why acquire a younger player (Francoeur is 25) whose ceiling is the guy you have now (Cody is 29)? It would only work if you thought Francoeur could be better in a few years than Cody, but because Frenchy will never develop plate discipline, Ross is pretty much his ceiling.

The BoniLine, 06/12/2009

A quick BoniLine for tonight's excellent 7-3 win.

Emilio Bonifacio: 4 PA, 0 H, WPA: -.076

Best Performer:
Hanley Ramirez: 5 PA, 3 H, 3 1B, 1 SF, 3 RBI, WPA: .195

Granted, Bonifacio's line was uneventfully bad, as he had a low leverage index (0.75), bogged down by the extremely low leverage PA after Cody Ross's grand slam. Still, very characteristic of Bonifacio: 4 PA, 2 groundouts, 2 bunting outs, on bad bunts at that. The BoniLine trudges along...