The Real Worth of Lineup Tinkering

Yesterday in Fish Bites, I posted a link to an interesting quickie study using Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool of the potential for one of Tony LaRussa's famously quirky moves: batting the pitcher slot 8th instead of 9th. Here's a quick look at the results I calculated on the simulator myself.

The current lineup: 4.547 runs/game
The sensible lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and Baker: 4.646 runs/game
The LaRussa lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and the pitcher: 4.709 runs/game

The difference between the current lineup and the sensible one is worth a modest 16 runs over 162 games, but the difference between the current and LaRussa lineups was calculated at a 26 runs in 162 games.

As you can see, the difference between the current lineup and the LaRussa lineup is somewhat significant. 2.6 wins is nothing to scoff at; it's the approximate difference between an average player and Dan Uggla last year. But if you take a look at the difference between the sensible lineup and the LaRussa lineup, the run differential is less pronounced, approximately one win less.

Both of these results do come with signifcant caveats, namely that the statistics listed here are for about a third of a season's plate appearances and by no means stable yet. Sure, one and two wins sound like they matter and they do, given how we evaluate players with the latest run estimators and the closeness of playoff races these days; ask the Mets if they would've liked a one- or two-win improvement over Luis Castillo these last few years. But with only a a third of a season's worth of data and plate appearances, the inserted OBP and SLG values could be of little meaning. Rob Neyer pointed out an Alan Schwarz article in the New York Times earlier in the season about simulators and their ability to project baseball data; you can find Neyer's post here. Here the study mentioned was a difference between batting Alex Rodriguez cleanup vs. 9th in the Yankees lineup. Over 100 simulated seasons, the average differential was about 40 runs, or four wins. In comparison, our total projects a 1.6 win difference between batting the team's worst hitter (the pitcher) 8th or 9th in the lineup based on a third of a season's data. I find that difficult to believe.

Still, the results are significant in telling us something, and that something is not so much that the configuration of a pitcher batting 8th is impressive, but rather that the configuration of batting a player with a .291 OBP second is not. Plate appearances dominate the difference in run potential for lineups, because the more chances efficient and better players get at producing runs, the better those runs get produced. Bonifacio and his .273 wOBA are just not an efficient use of the second most amount of plate appearances for your team. Putting a much more reasonable player available to you at that slot and moving Bonifacio down in the order will provide a similar return.

Finally, this sort of batting order decision clearly takes a backseat to better player evaluation. Using our nifty tool, consider replacing Bonifacio in his current spot in the lineup with a league average player in the National League, sporting a .332 OBP and .404 SLG: 4.778 runs per game, a full 0.231 runs, or 37.4 more runs over the course of the full season. This is probably a bit of an overstatement as well, as Bonifacio was worth about -12.5 runs compared to the average over the first 286 plate appearances, and I can't imagine him getting anything more than 750 PA's over the full season batting #2 in the lineup. At 750 PA's and his current rate of hitting ineptitude, Bonifacio would be worth about 32 runs less than an average player with the bat. Even then, those values trump any lineup changes being made, proving that the best way to fix an ailing offense is usually to replace bad players with decent ones, not shuttling them around in the lineup.

As a final look at the study, and a way to make myself feel smarter, here's the lineup I designed in my head prior to using the tool, based on what I feel would be the best use of the team's limited OBP skills.

1) LF Coghlan
2) RF Hermida
3) SS Ramirez
4) 1B Cantu
5) 2B Uggla
6) CF Ross
7) C Baker
8) 3B Bonifacio
9) Pitcher

This lineup calculated to 4.690 runs per game. Not half bad. I can't wait to see when Gaby Sanchez comes up and fills in for Bonifacio's spot. We'll return and reexamine this later, with better sample sizes for players like Coghlan who currently haven't played enough yet.

The BoniLine, 06/15/09

Emilio Bonifacio showed up at the bottom of the order and ended up posting a pretty good game.

Emilio Bonifacio: 3 PA, 2 H, 1 1B, 1 2B, 2 R, 1 SB, WPA: .045

Best Performer:
Chris Coghlan: 4 PA, 2 H, 1 1B, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 K, WPA: .079

Bonifacio ended up posting the second best WPA for the team, but when the team loses 8-3, decent performances like those of Coghlan and Bonifacio end up looking much better.

Ironically, I was discussing with a roommate Bonifacio's severe lack of power before he hit that line drive off of the very top of the Green Monster. Not sure how he pulled that off, though I suspect part of it is that the Monster is somewhat shallow to left field, but very tall. If he could line the ball more like that, it would certainly help, at least while Fredi keeps throwing him out there.

Fish Bites

I'm dropping the date label on the Fish Bites pieces. The date's on top, ladies and gents, you can get a good look yourself! Anyway, on to the news and notes.

- Apparently Hanley Ramirez wasn't too happy about being hit by a pitch by Jays reliever Dirk Hayhurst yesterday, and wanted some retaliation as protection. Said Ramirez, in Spanish, "You know, incredible. There's going to come a point where I'm not going to feel protected. I'm going to be scared to hit a home run because I know I'm going to get hit."

I'm not a big fan of the barbarism that is throwing fastballs at other guys intentionally. I'm not exactly sure how that's supposed to help anyone. As a pitcher, you're giving up a base, and as a hitter, you're supposed to forget these sorts of things the next time you're up anyway. So you know I'm not a fan of how Hanley reacted to the situation here. But for him to say that he's going to be scared to hit a home run? Just because the other team is being moronic and childish doesn't the Marlins should follow suit. The way I see it, if he hits you, hit another home run. That should show them you're not afraid of the fastball.

- Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post blogs that Gaby Sanchez has moved to third base and might be on his way up to the big leagues. If so, this would be an obvious replacement for the struggling Emilio Bonifacio. I'm glad to see front office management (and this would be something the front office probably requested Triple-A New Orleans to do) is stepping up in trying to get a bat into third base. That being said, what Capozzi opens up afterwards was much more speculative and potentially devastating.

Capozzi mentions that Sanchez could take third base and move Bonifacio or Coghlan to their more naturla second base position, opening up Dan Uggla to be traded. The Marlins stand currently a game under .500 and, while it's still extremely early in the season, well within wild card reach, provided they start playing better. Of course, that sort of positioning doesn't imply that the Marlins won't make a move to help the team weather its limited finances as best it can. Uggla has been rumored to be involved in trade rumors ever since the team decided not to hand out a long-term deal to him after giving Hanley a six-year deal. This decision was absolutely correct; Uggla is 29 years old, is a below average defender at his current position, and figures to age in a not so graceful fashion. There was simply no reason to buy out any of his arbitration years for the likely $8 million a year it would have taken.

Right now, Uggla has trade value, and the Giants are rumored to be interested. But the Marlins would be silly to make a deal like this right now. If Uggla is dealt to the Giants, the team would suffer even more offensively than they have right now, especially if the plan was to move Bonifacio to second base. Furthermore, while the Giants do have an excellent set of prospects, none of those guys will be coming over to the Marlins in a trade. The Giants have made it very clear they're shopping starter Jonathan Sanchez, not top-flight prospects such as Madison Baumgarner or Tim Alderson. Sanchez is 26 years old and has electric stuff, but has yet to put it all together. His walk rate has jumped so far this season, up to a ridiculous 6.71 BB/9. His other peripherals are steady from last year, but the walk rate has bumped his FIP to 4.62 on the year. Do we really need another Andrew Miller-type pitcher in Marlins' staff?


- The Marlins apparently rejected a straight-up trade of Cody Ross for Jeff Francoeur. With all of Francoeur's struggles this year, I can't say I disagree. But let's look at both players' production this year. Francoeur has been awful this year, posting a .250/.284/.345 line that is down a bit from last year. But looking at some of his other stats, he's not faltering any from his rookie campaign. His GB/FB ratio is hovering around 1, as it has throughout his career. His LD% is at 20.7%, right around his career totals. His walk rate has basically been the same terrible total it always was, while his K% has actually gone down, currently standing at a career low 14.7%. As a result, his contact rate is up, so while he's swinging at everything, he's certainly hitting more of it. You'd expect that with a LD% at 20% and a decent contact rate, he'd be doing OK, but he's been horrific. The BABIP may have something to do with it; it's the same as last year's, when he had his worst season yet. In that analysis, Francoeur looks like a guy who's run into some bad luck and has one major hole in his game (he can't draw walks). That's not bad, but given his slightly above average glove (last year could have been a bit of an aberration in the field), he certainly could still play.

Ross has been as good in the field, if not better than Francoeur recently, plus he gets a bonus for being a passable center fielder. But as far as a hitting profile, Ross probably profiles as what Francoeur likely would be, a power-hitting outfielder with a poor eye for the strike zone. Cody is swinging at about 27% of balls outside the strike zone, a value that is not as extreme but similar in profile to Francoeur's. Cody's actually made less contact than Francoeur and has been significantly luckier (.309 BABIP vs. Francoeur's .278). The difference between the two has been in the power numbers. Cody's ISO stands at a robust .212, while Frenchy has a Bonifacio-esque .095.

Frenchy needs time in the minors to rebuild his swing and confidence. He'll never walk a ton, but if he can get his BA back up in the .270 range, combine that with his solid glove, he could pass as a decent right fielder. As for now, that trade simply would not have worked. Why acquire a younger player (Francoeur is 25) whose ceiling is the guy you have now (Cody is 29)? It would only work if you thought Francoeur could be better in a few years than Cody, but because Frenchy will never develop plate discipline, Ross is pretty much his ceiling.

Blogservations 06/13/09, Marlins 6, Blue Jays 5

No BoniLine today, as Fredi gave him the day off in favor of Wes Helms. Still, a tight but very well-deserved victory for the Marlins over a good Jays team. Here are some of my thoughts on the game.

Sean West followed his masterpiece with a clunker.

Here's another solid reason why wins don't tell you anything. It was pretty visible to everyone there that Sean West could be beat out there, but the Jays were simply unable to get to him. In 5 2/3 innings, West walked four while striking out none and gave up two two-run homers in the process. His pitches, as one would expect in an outing like this, were not sharp. Watching him throughout, his velocity was way down, with his fastball sitting 87-89 MPH, only occasionally touching 90 MPH and going no higher. Color commentator Tommy Hutton mentioned that the Rogers Center radar gun looked a little slow, as evidenced by the uncharacteristic speeds for West and Leo Nunez. Still, West's fastball looked slow today, and he wasn't placing it anywhere effectively. The two home runs he allowed were big mistake pitches over the plate, and much of the time he spent either digging pitches into the dirt or missing in the strike zone. The Marlins should be considered lucky to get away with a win backed by a performance like this one.

The Marlins outfielders are locked in at the plate.

Last night Chris Coghlan put up a 4-for-5 line. Though he followed up last night with only one double today, the other two Marlins outfielders picked up the slack. Jeremy Hermida went 2-for-4 and Cody Ross went 3-for-4, and each of them smacked a two-run homer to produce the majority of the Fish's runs. Closing in on the midway mark for June, Hermida has posted an impressive .342/.432/.526 line for the month, good for a .410 wOBA. The most encouraging sign perhaps is the increased power; for the month Hermida has posted a .184 ISO, and in his last six games, he's knocked a double and three home runs. Not to be outdone, Cody Ross has put up a .275/.326/.475 line for the month and has powered the Marlins recently with two home runs and two doubles in the series, one of the doubles today coming off the top of the wall and looking conspicuously like a home run on video replay.

Combine the recent hot streaks with Coghlan's solid month and increasing power numbers and Ross Gload's quietly good season at the plate, and the Marlins suddenly have a bounty of useful offensive players who can play the outfield. I think Fredi should consider a lineup where Coghlan is moved to third base and Gload gets extra playing time in right field, even though his defense there is lacking. This would get the best bats in the lineup, even if it is only for one or two games a week versus right handers. It definitely seems like something to consider.

The bullpen looked spectacular.

A few games ago the pen struggled and Leo Nunez in particular surrendered the game winning run to St. Louis. Today the runs were allowed by West, but the pen came out and shut the door after an unearned made it a 6-5 game. Leo Nunez pitched an excellent 1 1/3 innings, striking out two in some very high leverage situations. Dan Meyer came in before him and knocked out Adam Lind in one of the tightest spots in the game, with runners on first and second with one out in the seventh inning and the Jays already with a run home. Finally, Matt Lindstrom gave up a leadoff hit but had no problems finishing off the top of the Jays order, thanks in some part to Marco Scutaro giving himself up for the sacrifice bunt. Lindstrom collected two easy outs in the highest leverage situations in the game, closing the door with a Vernon Wells strikeout.

The bullpen has had its ups and downs so far this year, trending down right now perhaps due to overwork, a situation that happened last year as well after the first half. Lindstrom has been wild all season long, and it has been torture to watch. But today Nunez and Lindstrom looked great and sealed a tough game for the Marlins. Hopefully this is a harbinger of things to come.

Blogservations 06/12/09, Marlins 7, Blue Jays 3

No Blogservations on the Cardinal's 6-5 comeback win over the Marlins, as I didn't catch any of it and saw very little in the way of signs. The only thing I can say is that Leo Nunez's poor peripherals are starting to catch up to him. He throws it well, but he walks too many guys to be effective. Also, he's literally missing bats like he hasn't done before (a 71.6% contact rate, down from the low 80's he's put up most of his career), and combining that with the very low .246 BABIP, I'd say his season so far has been more than a bit fluky, and now he's beginning to regress to what he actually is.

Let's move on to this game.

Ricky Nolasco looked like his old self.

This start was more indicative of the old Nolasco of last year than any of his previous starts. Maybe the Triple-A demotion worked and he got his act together, though it was doubtful his act was off to begin with. Before the demotion, his K/9 had increased from last year, though it's come with an increase in BB/9 as well. Today Nolasco posted an impressive nine strikeouts against only one walk. Had he scattered those five hits and walk a bit more, it's likely he would not have allowed much in the way of runs; that being said, a big issue Nolasco had been facing was the big inning. Outside of the fifth inning last night, the outing was very encouraging.

Nolasco's biggest problem is likely the .399 BABIP he's posted so far, which screams "regression to the mean." Still, a 24% LD% shows he's being hit harder this season, which hopefully is not a trend. Nolasco's working well, showing numbers very similar, if not better, than those of last year. The final resutls are finally starting to catch up.

The Marlins finally came up big in the clutch.

The high leverage plays finally started to go the Marlins' way. With the exception of Jorge Cantu's bases loaded ground out in the third inning, the Fish were able to deliver the big hits color commentator Tommy Hutton keeps clamoring for. It started with Hanley Ramirez's single in the seventh (a 3.58 Leverage Index) and culminated of course in the Cody Ross grand slam with the bases juiced (ironically only a 3.10 Leverage Index). I brought up the team's performance on plate appearances with a Leverage Index (LI) greater 2 in a previous game. Tonight, the club delivered in a big way, going 2 for 3 in 5 PA with LI over 2, with a Dan Uggla walk and a John Baker HBP as well. All in all, the team totaled a 0.391 WPA in those PA's, a rare "clutch" performance by the team.

Chris Coghlan is looking like a true leadoff man.

Fredi Gonzalez wisened up for last night's AL home game and batted Emilio Bonifacio, the team's worst hitter, in the characteristic ninth spot. While he struggled to an uneventful 0 for 4 night, the team's new leadoff hitter Chris Coghlan flourished, going 4 for 5 with 3 singles and a double. He also stole a base and scored twice, thanks to Hanley Ramirez's solid game. It was good to see Coghlan set the table against Toronto, a team that has an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup in Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. The Marlins' table-setting duo of Coghlan and Ross Gload combined for seven hits and two doubles in 10 PA, compiling a WPA of 0.171. If the team could get half that production from its leadoff and #2 hitters everyday, our offense would be much improved.

With Coghlan's ability to draw walks, he seems like a natural fit at the top of the order. Add to that his speed potential on the basepaths and the Fish have likely stumbled on a good choice for leadoff. As for the #2 guy, once the club starts playing NL teams again, it won't have the luxury of playing Gload at first base and having Cantu DH. Knowing that you're looking for OBP in your top of the lineup guys, as they get the most PA's and as a result should be the ones who use their opportunities most efficiently, the team should allow Jeremy Hermida to bat in the 2-hole again. He did this for much of the season last year before John Baker got the nod near the end of the season, but previously didn't deserve to be taking up that high slot due to an eroding OBP. Now his OBP stands at a robust .374, a number that would certainly hold up for a #2 hitter.

The other option the team should consider is another man who used to hit #2 for the club, Dan Uggla. Uggla hit in the 2-hole most of 2006, but was moved down in the order as a result of his power. At the time he also hadn't reached base at the clip he is now, and for the last two years he's shown dramatic improvement in his walks and OBP. In addition, Uggla has had a difficult time getting pitches to hit; a mere 47.1% of the pitches he's seen have been in the strikezone. Dave Cameron posted an interesting piece regarding a new strategy for #2 hitters, mostly putting players who are better fastball hitters but don't see fastballs normally into the 2-hole. If this strategy provided any sort of bonus benefit in addition to having Uggla's increasing plate selectivity, it might be worth a try.

Blogservations 06/08/09, Marlins 4, Giants 0

I came in late for the game, stepping in during the bottom of the 5th inning. I was pleasantly surprised to see the team up 3-0 and threatening with the bases loaded and two outs, but with Ronny Paulino's groundout, the inning ended in typical Marlins fashion this year. The surprise silver lining for me was that I got to see a row of zeroes on Giants' portion of the column, revealing that Sean West was pitching a gem opposite Randy Johnson.

In any case, here's a few of my observations from the game:

Brett Carroll came up with some ironic timing for a hitting clinic.

He'll never be confused with anything resembling a good hitter, but the one thing Brett Carroll has brought this year in limited innings is a solid outfield glove. And seeing the latest UZR values for the outfielders the Marlins are throwing out there, a solid glove might be able to help the squad win a game or two more. He couldn't be worse than Emilio Bonifacio, could he?

Well, today Fredi gave Bonifacio and Jeremy Hermida the day off, slotting Wes Helms at third and Carroll in right field. Carroll surprisingly did not disappoint with the bat, hitting a three-run home run, his first as a major leaguer, that single-handedly added 21% to the Win Expectancy for the Fish. He added a triple and bunt single to those totals, going 3 for 4 for the night.

I maintain that the team has could have enough depth in the outfield to start Carroll in either left or right field and Hermida at the other side. Fredi likes to bring Carroll in late as a defensive replacement, but at this stage, his bat is no worse than Bonifacio's and his plus glove can be in the game full-time. In just 77 innings of work, Carroll has provided a 5.7 UZR. Of course, small sample size is a big factor here. Looking at his career outfield totals, he's posted a 7.9 UZR in 237 innings, a decent indicator of a good glove.

This would leave the team with Ross Gload as its onyl backup outfielder, so perhaps this strategy should be held until Alfredo Amezaga returns from the DL, which from what I hear isn't anytime soon. Still, after advocating Carroll to start, he certainly backed me up with a good performance.

Sean West showed some impressive stuff.

West ranked as the organization's 4th best prospect and top pitching prospect coming into this year, according to Baseball America. He had been injured in 2007 after a very solid 2006 in low-A, but recovered nicely in 2008. After a slew of injuries and ineffective starts from various Marlins starters, West got the call from AA and has done decently so far. His 5.26 FIP was heavily influenced by his start versus the Brewers, where he was hammered in four innings of work. But his other two starts showed promise, as the peripherals were fine (7/5 K/BB in 12 innings of work, 1 HR allowed) for a 22 year-old fresh off his first 8 starts at AA.

Tonight West put up a gem against the Giants, however. Having watched him starting in the sixth inning, I saw his fastball sitting at 90-92 MPH and a nasty-looking slider in the low-mid 80's with good lateral and downward movement. I'm in no ways a baseball scout, so all I can say is what I saw, and what I saw was some solid movement on his breaking balls that were getting hitters to buckle and miss on many occasions. He was spotting the fastball decently, though the Giants weren't doing much with the ones he was missing.

The best part perhaps was revealed in his peripherals. In eight innings of work, he put up 6 K and only 1 BB, scattering 2 hits. That's good stuff, and it shows some of his ability to miss bats that had not been seen all that much in his previous starts. Here's hoping tonight is the start of a good run for West the rest of the way through his major league stint this year. I suspect we'll see him back in AA when the injury to Anibal Sanchez clears up and he's ready to start again.

I'm anxious to see more of Chris Coghlan.

Coghlan looked great as a minor leaguer last year and was poised to be brought to big leagues this season. But with 2B blocked by Dan Uggla (and the team's refusal to move him out of the position despite his poor range), Coghlan would have to find a new position to play. With Bonifacio struggling at the time of his call-up, many figured that would be third base, but Fredi's insistance on playing Bonifacio moved Coghlan to left field. While Coghlan's current line of .224/.350/.329 isn't lighting up the sky, it's his OBP that intrigues me and leaves me wanting to see more.

The Marlins have quite a few players in their lineup that struggle with getting on base. Bonifacio and his terrible numbers aside, we also have low OBP's on players like Cody Ross (.305) and Jorge Cantu (.339) because they lack the patience for walks. Cantu so far has posted a 6.5% BB rate, while Ross himself has a 6.1% BB rate. Three Marlin's regulars are posting BB rates above 10%: John Baker, who seems to be getting 2/3 of the catcher PA only, Jeremy Hermida, who seems to have lost all semblance of power and is in that sense the opposite of Ross, and Dan Uggla, who is just now returning to peak form from some bad BABIP karma.

Coghlan shows a robust 16.7% BB rate early in the season and has the .350 OBP that is at least a little deserving of a leadoff spot. All of this is in a small sample size, so we have to take it with a grain of salt. But if he can provide this kind of OBP and increase his power numbers a bit more (he is currently posting a weak 11.9% line drive % (LD%) which I suspect doesn't match his minor league track record and should receive a decent bump, which should help his currently low BABIP), he could be the kind of leadoff hitter the team needs to compete offensively.

However, that kind of expectation may be a tad overzealous. zIPS projects a .241/.327/.353 finish to Coghlan's year, with a BB rate down to 11.0%, closer to his minor league career values. A line like that wouldn't exactly be a cup of tea, but the team could do worse with the talent it currently has.