Blogservations 06/17/09, Red Sox 6, Marlins 1

There's always games like this where you can get really frustrated as a fan. It was tough to watch the Marlins tonight, as it was obvious that they were hitting far worse than Brad Penny was pitching. It was also difficult to see the team give up runs on tough outs, plays where there was a good deal of luck involved. Let's go into the observations.

If you don't hit, you can't win.

Elementary really, so it isn't some grand sabermetric discovery. Then again, I didn't really need Hit f/x or anything like that to tell you the Marlins offense was atrocious tonight. What made it especially frustrating was the fact that Brad Penny was more than hittable. His fastball was definitely working, with 95-98 MPH heat throughout his innings. But he wasn't placing pitches particularly well and there was a good set of pitches that were out there to be hit. Look at his pitch type strike zone, again courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

It's difficult to see at the size I have it, but it's simple to tell that:

1) There were a good amount of belt- and thigh-high fastballs the Marlins could have driven.
2) Penny hung a huge amount of curveballs middle and high in the zone.

Yet the Marlins eked out, from my count, approximately four hard hit balls, one of which ended as Jorge Cantu's two-bag error that drove in the team's only run. Two others were doubles by Ross Gload and John Baker, but the team never capitalized.

This chart shows graphically the patient approach the Marlins were taking with Penny. The Fish whiffed only five times and only once outside the generalized strike zone. While they did also foul off one or two pitches outside the zone, for the most part the team stayed disciplined and swung at strikes. But all this hard work was for naught, as the team only turned four of those juicy pitches located middle and mid-high into bases. A frustrating evening to be sure.

Andrew Miller had some bad breaks.

In contrast, let's take a look at Andrew Miller's night out.


Pitch f/x was all over the place with regards to the types of pitches it was seeing, but as we know, Miller has a three-pitch arsenal: fastball, slider, changeup. Tonight, he was having some decent success with the changeup, throwing it 55% of the time for strikes and placing it where it would be difficult to hit, typically problems for Miller. In general he was able to keep the ball down, a stark contrast to Chris Volstad's erratic outing. Miller was able to get five swinging strikes outside of the zone, primarily with the fastball, which was ranging from 92-95 MPH and occasionally touching the high 90's.

So if all of that good was working, how come he gave up four runs? Two major things contributed to the run scoring against Miller:

1) He was missing the zone a lot, mostly down. Can't blame him too much though, as he was getting squeezed in the strike zone (more on that later).
2) He was getting really unlucky. A lot of soft hit balls found their way through the infield, into holes in the outfield defense, and other inaccessible areas. Some of that is our defense, some of that was just plain bad luck.

I can't be too disappointed in Miller's performance. He struck out six while walking four, right around his average performance, but as I mentioned he was being squeezed pretty bad down in the zone. He was getting whiffs with his pitches and showing better command on his changeup, a key to making him a solid starter. As a Marlins fan, you hope a better strike zone can make his numbers look better.

The strike zone seemed way off.

As I watched the game, I noticed some awkward stuff about the strike zone home plate umpire Jerry Crawford was calling. In particular, the one consistent thing I saw was a lack of a knee-high strike, made particularly obvious because Miller was living in that area of the typical strike zone. Normally, I'd be pretty happy to see a pitcher working down consistently like that, but take a look at the strikezone plot for both teams.

My suspicion during the game seemed correct; Crawford was definitely tightening up the bottom of the zone and not giving out the knee-high strike. But Penny was everywhere, so it didn't hurt him nearly as much. But there are a lot of little green triangles on there representing the Marlins' pitchers, and particularly Miller. Getting squeezed there really hurt his game plan, as it forced him to go a little higher in the zone or risk walking more men. He chose the latter and got burned by a few untimely lucky hits.

The other oddity I spotted was this.

There were a lot of red marks indicating Boston strikes called off of the inner half of the plate to left handers. Miller seemed to miss by much more to that side, and in addition faced significantly fewer left handers than Boston did; the Marlins trotted out Chris Coghlan, Ross Gload, Jeremy Hermida, and the switch-hitting Emilio Bonifacio, while the left side for Boston was populated by Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz only.

I didn't notice this in-game, but it makes me particularly mad. When the umps don't call an even strikezone for both teams, it's hard to gauge what types of pitches and locations should be used to get hitters out. These sorts of thing can really affect a pitcher's performance, and aren't usually seen through the box score stats. Just looking at the box score, I would have said Miller had a difficult struggle, but using the Pitch f/x data and some observation, you can tell he was really more in the strike zone than it was called. Combine that with some bad luck and you can get the makings of a poor performance.

The opposite went for Penny and the Sox starters. They got to take advantage of a fairly consistently called "bad" strike. I know Pitch f/x normalizes the strike zone, so the real zone is more hitter dependent, but those sort of bad calls can get players into chasing pitches that are far worse. It all stinks of just a forgettable evening for the Fish.

Blogservations 06/16/09, Red Sox 8, Marlins 2

Can't be all that surprised by the results of this game. The high-strikeout Marlins don't do well against the slow pitchers with the big breaking balls. Or at least that's how the cliche goes. Let's take a look at some of my thoughts.

Chris Volstad tosses another dud.

Volstad had his second bad outing in a row and the second outing in the season in which he's given up five or more runs. A look at the peripheral stats shows part of the problem: Volstad has struck out only two batters his last 9 1/3 innings (two starts) and has given up two more home runs in the process, putting his season total at 14. Tonight he wasn't able to place his pitches, so despite a fastball that sat 91-93 MPH consistently, occasionally touching 94 MPH, he couldn't get the pitches over enough and fell behind in too many counts. He stayed mostly with the fastball because hitters weren't offering at his breaking balls. Let's take a look at my first foray into pitch f/x charts. All charts here courtesy of Brooks Baseball's Pitch f/x tool.

Here is Volstad's strikezone plot, with pitch types indicated. There are some random choices for pitch types that probably weren't the ones he threw. In particular, the "slider" was most likely a curveball and the the fastballs were likely more decently split between two- and four-seamer.


Now, here's the same chart indicating pitch results.


The charts show what one could tell empirically by watching the game. Volstad was a good deal out of control tonight, unable to pound the lower half of the zone like he usually does. His pitches tonight were scattered up and down the zone, and Red Sox hitters knew it; they laid off the majority of the pitches out of the zone, including almost all of Volstad's curveballs, and forced him to keep it in the strike zone, where they were able to get good contact on him.

Despite the erratic location and the need to throw within the strike zone, the Red Sox didn't pound him with big extra base hits. Only two of the nine hits Volstad allowed were for extra-bases, including David Ortiz's home run. So while they were certainly making good contact on Volstad and taking advantage of the juicky fastballs he was tossing high in the zone, they weren't hitting him all that hard, though I recall many of these singles being line drive hits. Hits such as Nick Green's infield single that squirted past Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, however, point towards some "hitting it where they ain't" type luck.

Volstad has improved as more of a strikeout pitcher, but he still requires a lot from his infield defense. With his work more pitch-to-contact than other guys in the rotation like Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson, it's imperative that Volstad keep the ball down in the strike zone to be effective. If he can't locate and begins to throw too many belt-high strikes, that's when the opposing team's swings get a bit more effective.

Marlins pitchers need to learn to hold runners.

Seems like this has been a problem all season long. The Marlins are tied with, ironically enough, the Red Sox with the most stolen bases allowed in the majors, and teams have scouted and used that knowledge to perfection. This development is due to two factors: 1) Marlins pitchers apparently have been slow to the plate out of the stretch; 2) Marlins catchers haven't made good enough throws.

My initial inclination would be to blame the first factor primarily. John Baker and Ronny Paulino have done a serviceable job behind the plate, but are not the strongest of arms. However, the team's pitching staff has definitely appeared slow to the plate and somewhat indifferent to runners on first. Truthfully though, I have no statistics to back this up, so while I make this claim, a more thorough study using Pitch f/x may be in line. Does anybody have a value for the average time to the plate for major league pitchers?

Blogservations 06/14/09, Marlins 11, Blue Jays 3

The Marlins finish off a three-game sweep of the Jays in impressive fashion with an 11-3 win. Here are some of my thoughts on the performance.

Josh Johnson is going through the motions of becoming a true staff ace.

Today JJ did not necessarily have his best stuff, but the one number that did impress me the most was this: nine innings pitched. The complete game was JJ's second of the season, continuing a string of games where he has gone deep into games; this was his fifth straight start going seven or more innings. A sign of a true staff "ace," a term often thrown around and rarely truly applicable, is a guy who can pitch workhorse innings (that is, a lot of innings consistently) and pitch well in those increased innings. Johnson already has the filthy stuff to carry him to the top of any rotation, so it's good, especially being a recovering Tommy John surgery guy, to see him rack up the innings so smoothly.

Now, not all was rainbows and sunshine. His peripherals were not all that sharp today, with only six strikeouts to three walks. That's still a 2-to-1 K/BB ratio, a good ratio, but not great. More importantly, earlier in the week, after JJ spun an excellent game against the Cardinals, I mentioned that his HR/FB ratio was 2-3% lower than his career norms, and that as a result he had perhaps a deflated HR/9. Well, regression started hitting stride today, as the only runs Johnson allowed came off back-to-back home runs by Alex Rios and Kevin Millar. This isn't to say that Johnson will be handing out long balls like I dish out unsuccessful date requests to girls around the University, but we should expect some regression in his numbers and a subsequent rise in ERA and FIP. Not to worry everyone, he's still the best young starter we've got and, if the Marlins front office agrees, hopefully an Opening Day starter for years to come.

Fredi still doesn't know what on-base percentage means.

This has been ticking me off all year obviously, but it showed again when Fredi Gonzalez penciled in Emilio Bonifacio at the 2-hole again after two straight games with Ross Gload batting in that spot. Even if one were to consider what a "classic" #2 hitter is supposed to do, i.e. work pitch counts, hit for contact, bunt runners over, hit and run, all that "small ball" baseball that managers and broadcasters like to talk about but actually is only marginally useful because it often involves giving up outs, Bonifacio has to be the last guy to do this. When you have an extra hitter available, why not just shift your worst hitter to ninth in the order? You don't even have to worry about the pitcher's spot afterwards, you just line up your order from better/best hitters to worst hitter. I'm still confounded.

Blogservations 06/13/09, Marlins 6, Blue Jays 5

No BoniLine today, as Fredi gave him the day off in favor of Wes Helms. Still, a tight but very well-deserved victory for the Marlins over a good Jays team. Here are some of my thoughts on the game.

Sean West followed his masterpiece with a clunker.

Here's another solid reason why wins don't tell you anything. It was pretty visible to everyone there that Sean West could be beat out there, but the Jays were simply unable to get to him. In 5 2/3 innings, West walked four while striking out none and gave up two two-run homers in the process. His pitches, as one would expect in an outing like this, were not sharp. Watching him throughout, his velocity was way down, with his fastball sitting 87-89 MPH, only occasionally touching 90 MPH and going no higher. Color commentator Tommy Hutton mentioned that the Rogers Center radar gun looked a little slow, as evidenced by the uncharacteristic speeds for West and Leo Nunez. Still, West's fastball looked slow today, and he wasn't placing it anywhere effectively. The two home runs he allowed were big mistake pitches over the plate, and much of the time he spent either digging pitches into the dirt or missing in the strike zone. The Marlins should be considered lucky to get away with a win backed by a performance like this one.

The Marlins outfielders are locked in at the plate.

Last night Chris Coghlan put up a 4-for-5 line. Though he followed up last night with only one double today, the other two Marlins outfielders picked up the slack. Jeremy Hermida went 2-for-4 and Cody Ross went 3-for-4, and each of them smacked a two-run homer to produce the majority of the Fish's runs. Closing in on the midway mark for June, Hermida has posted an impressive .342/.432/.526 line for the month, good for a .410 wOBA. The most encouraging sign perhaps is the increased power; for the month Hermida has posted a .184 ISO, and in his last six games, he's knocked a double and three home runs. Not to be outdone, Cody Ross has put up a .275/.326/.475 line for the month and has powered the Marlins recently with two home runs and two doubles in the series, one of the doubles today coming off the top of the wall and looking conspicuously like a home run on video replay.

Combine the recent hot streaks with Coghlan's solid month and increasing power numbers and Ross Gload's quietly good season at the plate, and the Marlins suddenly have a bounty of useful offensive players who can play the outfield. I think Fredi should consider a lineup where Coghlan is moved to third base and Gload gets extra playing time in right field, even though his defense there is lacking. This would get the best bats in the lineup, even if it is only for one or two games a week versus right handers. It definitely seems like something to consider.

The bullpen looked spectacular.

A few games ago the pen struggled and Leo Nunez in particular surrendered the game winning run to St. Louis. Today the runs were allowed by West, but the pen came out and shut the door after an unearned made it a 6-5 game. Leo Nunez pitched an excellent 1 1/3 innings, striking out two in some very high leverage situations. Dan Meyer came in before him and knocked out Adam Lind in one of the tightest spots in the game, with runners on first and second with one out in the seventh inning and the Jays already with a run home. Finally, Matt Lindstrom gave up a leadoff hit but had no problems finishing off the top of the Jays order, thanks in some part to Marco Scutaro giving himself up for the sacrifice bunt. Lindstrom collected two easy outs in the highest leverage situations in the game, closing the door with a Vernon Wells strikeout.

The bullpen has had its ups and downs so far this year, trending down right now perhaps due to overwork, a situation that happened last year as well after the first half. Lindstrom has been wild all season long, and it has been torture to watch. But today Nunez and Lindstrom looked great and sealed a tough game for the Marlins. Hopefully this is a harbinger of things to come.

Blogservations 06/12/09, Marlins 7, Blue Jays 3

No Blogservations on the Cardinal's 6-5 comeback win over the Marlins, as I didn't catch any of it and saw very little in the way of signs. The only thing I can say is that Leo Nunez's poor peripherals are starting to catch up to him. He throws it well, but he walks too many guys to be effective. Also, he's literally missing bats like he hasn't done before (a 71.6% contact rate, down from the low 80's he's put up most of his career), and combining that with the very low .246 BABIP, I'd say his season so far has been more than a bit fluky, and now he's beginning to regress to what he actually is.

Let's move on to this game.

Ricky Nolasco looked like his old self.

This start was more indicative of the old Nolasco of last year than any of his previous starts. Maybe the Triple-A demotion worked and he got his act together, though it was doubtful his act was off to begin with. Before the demotion, his K/9 had increased from last year, though it's come with an increase in BB/9 as well. Today Nolasco posted an impressive nine strikeouts against only one walk. Had he scattered those five hits and walk a bit more, it's likely he would not have allowed much in the way of runs; that being said, a big issue Nolasco had been facing was the big inning. Outside of the fifth inning last night, the outing was very encouraging.

Nolasco's biggest problem is likely the .399 BABIP he's posted so far, which screams "regression to the mean." Still, a 24% LD% shows he's being hit harder this season, which hopefully is not a trend. Nolasco's working well, showing numbers very similar, if not better, than those of last year. The final resutls are finally starting to catch up.

The Marlins finally came up big in the clutch.

The high leverage plays finally started to go the Marlins' way. With the exception of Jorge Cantu's bases loaded ground out in the third inning, the Fish were able to deliver the big hits color commentator Tommy Hutton keeps clamoring for. It started with Hanley Ramirez's single in the seventh (a 3.58 Leverage Index) and culminated of course in the Cody Ross grand slam with the bases juiced (ironically only a 3.10 Leverage Index). I brought up the team's performance on plate appearances with a Leverage Index (LI) greater 2 in a previous game. Tonight, the club delivered in a big way, going 2 for 3 in 5 PA with LI over 2, with a Dan Uggla walk and a John Baker HBP as well. All in all, the team totaled a 0.391 WPA in those PA's, a rare "clutch" performance by the team.

Chris Coghlan is looking like a true leadoff man.

Fredi Gonzalez wisened up for last night's AL home game and batted Emilio Bonifacio, the team's worst hitter, in the characteristic ninth spot. While he struggled to an uneventful 0 for 4 night, the team's new leadoff hitter Chris Coghlan flourished, going 4 for 5 with 3 singles and a double. He also stole a base and scored twice, thanks to Hanley Ramirez's solid game. It was good to see Coghlan set the table against Toronto, a team that has an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup in Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. The Marlins' table-setting duo of Coghlan and Ross Gload combined for seven hits and two doubles in 10 PA, compiling a WPA of 0.171. If the team could get half that production from its leadoff and #2 hitters everyday, our offense would be much improved.

With Coghlan's ability to draw walks, he seems like a natural fit at the top of the order. Add to that his speed potential on the basepaths and the Fish have likely stumbled on a good choice for leadoff. As for the #2 guy, once the club starts playing NL teams again, it won't have the luxury of playing Gload at first base and having Cantu DH. Knowing that you're looking for OBP in your top of the lineup guys, as they get the most PA's and as a result should be the ones who use their opportunities most efficiently, the team should allow Jeremy Hermida to bat in the 2-hole again. He did this for much of the season last year before John Baker got the nod near the end of the season, but previously didn't deserve to be taking up that high slot due to an eroding OBP. Now his OBP stands at a robust .374, a number that would certainly hold up for a #2 hitter.

The other option the team should consider is another man who used to hit #2 for the club, Dan Uggla. Uggla hit in the 2-hole most of 2006, but was moved down in the order as a result of his power. At the time he also hadn't reached base at the clip he is now, and for the last two years he's shown dramatic improvement in his walks and OBP. In addition, Uggla has had a difficult time getting pitches to hit; a mere 47.1% of the pitches he's seen have been in the strikezone. Dave Cameron posted an interesting piece regarding a new strategy for #2 hitters, mostly putting players who are better fastball hitters but don't see fastballs normally into the 2-hole. If this strategy provided any sort of bonus benefit in addition to having Uggla's increasing plate selectivity, it might be worth a try.

Blogservations 06/10/09, Cardinals 13, Marlins 4

Sat and watched through much of this game, though I missed the debacle that was the eighth inning and on for somewhat important reasons. Still, here's some of my take on tonight's game.

Chris Volstad has a serious case of homeritis.

It's spread all over his pitching game. On the box score it says he only gave up one long ball, a three-run shot in the first inning to Colby Rasmus. But watching the game, he gave up another long fly ball to Yadier Molina that would've been a home run in almost any other park, but thanks to the "Teal Monster" out in left and Molina going into a bit of a home run trot, it was reduced to a long fly ball single. In my view, Volstad pretty much gave up two more jacks tonight, and in reality it's been a season-long trend.

This year, Volstad has improved on two of three of his peripheral stats, the true outcome ratios. His K/9 has jumped up to 7.18 from 5.55 last year, and his BB/9 has dropped to 2.68 from 3.84. The primary reason Volstad was able to post a 2.88 ERA last year was a microscopic home run rate; he only allowed two home runs in 84 1/3 innings last year, good for a paltry 3.9% HR/FB ratio. This year, that's been a completely different story. Including tonight, he has allowed 13 home runs, inflating his HR/FB to an absurd 17.4%. His true value is likely somewhere in between those two extremes, and once he regresses we'll see an ERA hovering in the high 3's (this assumes a regression in the K% as well, as I don't think he's ready to strike out major leaguers at that sort of pace just yet). Still, it's an alarming trend, and Volstad needs to help out by doing what he's supposed to be able to do best, keep the ball down and get it on the ground.

Blogservations 06/09/09. Marlins 4, Cardinals 3

I regrettably was unable to watch this pitching duel of a game, so I had to do the old browsing of the box score. Luckily, FanGraphs has an excellent box score, game graph, and play-by-play setup for each game, and this yielded plenty of interesting information. Let's dive in.

I love Josh Johnson

It wasn't the prettiest of his outings, but his peripherals still looked excellent. JJ went seven innings, striking out six and walking just one. Looking at the PBP, it seemed he had a rough second and third inning, where he gave up the majority of his hits. From there, he retired 12 of his next 14 batters, allowing one hit and the lone walk, an intentional one to Rick Ankiel. He certainly outdueled fellow ace Chris Carpenter, who went six innings and gave up the same number of runs with only two strikeouts and one walk.

JJ's numbers are certainly excellent right now, but there is reason to expect some regression. This is the lowest walk rate he's posted so far in his career, so it will be interesting to see him keep it up. Also, he's allowing the lowest HR/FB rate of his career at 5.9%, well below his career values before the season of around 8-9%. He's been forcing far more grounders than previously seen as well.

The HR/FB should surely go up a bit, but it doesn't mean he still won't have a Cy Young caliber season. zIPS projects a 3.17 ERA and 2.96 FIP and a slight increase in his HR totals. Mind you, this is in 27 starts. If JJ can stay healthy all season, you can realistically expect 200+ innings with similar rate values, which should put him in contention with the likes of Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.

The Marlins blew some high leverage situations.

It was a bit frustrating to see leverage indexes over 2 and Marlins hitters whiffing on the opportunities. This has been a common complaint about the Marlins, voiced often by the team's official announcing crew of Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton, that the Marlins are missing out on the "big hit." This game was no exception, even with the walk off by Hermida. Discounting Hermida's walk off home run which added .354 to the win probability (obviously, as it won the game), the team went 1 for 4 in situations where the leverage index for the play was at 2 or higher, with a win probability added (WPA) of -.127. Remember, a leverage index of 1 is a neutral situation with regards to run scoring, with higher values relating stronger to run scoring, and win probability added is a percentage change in the chances of winning based on the result of a play. The only thing that saved that value was Emilio Bonifacio's RBI single worth .132 in WPA.

Timely hitting has a problem for the Fish all season long, and in this game it was no different. At least until a certain walk off blast to right field.

Blogservations 06/08/09, Marlins 4, Giants 0

I came in late for the game, stepping in during the bottom of the 5th inning. I was pleasantly surprised to see the team up 3-0 and threatening with the bases loaded and two outs, but with Ronny Paulino's groundout, the inning ended in typical Marlins fashion this year. The surprise silver lining for me was that I got to see a row of zeroes on Giants' portion of the column, revealing that Sean West was pitching a gem opposite Randy Johnson.

In any case, here's a few of my observations from the game:

Brett Carroll came up with some ironic timing for a hitting clinic.

He'll never be confused with anything resembling a good hitter, but the one thing Brett Carroll has brought this year in limited innings is a solid outfield glove. And seeing the latest UZR values for the outfielders the Marlins are throwing out there, a solid glove might be able to help the squad win a game or two more. He couldn't be worse than Emilio Bonifacio, could he?

Well, today Fredi gave Bonifacio and Jeremy Hermida the day off, slotting Wes Helms at third and Carroll in right field. Carroll surprisingly did not disappoint with the bat, hitting a three-run home run, his first as a major leaguer, that single-handedly added 21% to the Win Expectancy for the Fish. He added a triple and bunt single to those totals, going 3 for 4 for the night.

I maintain that the team has could have enough depth in the outfield to start Carroll in either left or right field and Hermida at the other side. Fredi likes to bring Carroll in late as a defensive replacement, but at this stage, his bat is no worse than Bonifacio's and his plus glove can be in the game full-time. In just 77 innings of work, Carroll has provided a 5.7 UZR. Of course, small sample size is a big factor here. Looking at his career outfield totals, he's posted a 7.9 UZR in 237 innings, a decent indicator of a good glove.

This would leave the team with Ross Gload as its onyl backup outfielder, so perhaps this strategy should be held until Alfredo Amezaga returns from the DL, which from what I hear isn't anytime soon. Still, after advocating Carroll to start, he certainly backed me up with a good performance.

Sean West showed some impressive stuff.

West ranked as the organization's 4th best prospect and top pitching prospect coming into this year, according to Baseball America. He had been injured in 2007 after a very solid 2006 in low-A, but recovered nicely in 2008. After a slew of injuries and ineffective starts from various Marlins starters, West got the call from AA and has done decently so far. His 5.26 FIP was heavily influenced by his start versus the Brewers, where he was hammered in four innings of work. But his other two starts showed promise, as the peripherals were fine (7/5 K/BB in 12 innings of work, 1 HR allowed) for a 22 year-old fresh off his first 8 starts at AA.

Tonight West put up a gem against the Giants, however. Having watched him starting in the sixth inning, I saw his fastball sitting at 90-92 MPH and a nasty-looking slider in the low-mid 80's with good lateral and downward movement. I'm in no ways a baseball scout, so all I can say is what I saw, and what I saw was some solid movement on his breaking balls that were getting hitters to buckle and miss on many occasions. He was spotting the fastball decently, though the Giants weren't doing much with the ones he was missing.

The best part perhaps was revealed in his peripherals. In eight innings of work, he put up 6 K and only 1 BB, scattering 2 hits. That's good stuff, and it shows some of his ability to miss bats that had not been seen all that much in his previous starts. Here's hoping tonight is the start of a good run for West the rest of the way through his major league stint this year. I suspect we'll see him back in AA when the injury to Anibal Sanchez clears up and he's ready to start again.

I'm anxious to see more of Chris Coghlan.

Coghlan looked great as a minor leaguer last year and was poised to be brought to big leagues this season. But with 2B blocked by Dan Uggla (and the team's refusal to move him out of the position despite his poor range), Coghlan would have to find a new position to play. With Bonifacio struggling at the time of his call-up, many figured that would be third base, but Fredi's insistance on playing Bonifacio moved Coghlan to left field. While Coghlan's current line of .224/.350/.329 isn't lighting up the sky, it's his OBP that intrigues me and leaves me wanting to see more.

The Marlins have quite a few players in their lineup that struggle with getting on base. Bonifacio and his terrible numbers aside, we also have low OBP's on players like Cody Ross (.305) and Jorge Cantu (.339) because they lack the patience for walks. Cantu so far has posted a 6.5% BB rate, while Ross himself has a 6.1% BB rate. Three Marlin's regulars are posting BB rates above 10%: John Baker, who seems to be getting 2/3 of the catcher PA only, Jeremy Hermida, who seems to have lost all semblance of power and is in that sense the opposite of Ross, and Dan Uggla, who is just now returning to peak form from some bad BABIP karma.

Coghlan shows a robust 16.7% BB rate early in the season and has the .350 OBP that is at least a little deserving of a leadoff spot. All of this is in a small sample size, so we have to take it with a grain of salt. But if he can provide this kind of OBP and increase his power numbers a bit more (he is currently posting a weak 11.9% line drive % (LD%) which I suspect doesn't match his minor league track record and should receive a decent bump, which should help his currently low BABIP), he could be the kind of leadoff hitter the team needs to compete offensively.

However, that kind of expectation may be a tad overzealous. zIPS projects a .241/.327/.353 finish to Coghlan's year, with a BB rate down to 11.0%, closer to his minor league career values. A line like that wouldn't exactly be a cup of tea, but the team could do worse with the talent it currently has.