Blogservations 06/16/09, Red Sox 8, Marlins 2

Can't be all that surprised by the results of this game. The high-strikeout Marlins don't do well against the slow pitchers with the big breaking balls. Or at least that's how the cliche goes. Let's take a look at some of my thoughts.

Chris Volstad tosses another dud.

Volstad had his second bad outing in a row and the second outing in the season in which he's given up five or more runs. A look at the peripheral stats shows part of the problem: Volstad has struck out only two batters his last 9 1/3 innings (two starts) and has given up two more home runs in the process, putting his season total at 14. Tonight he wasn't able to place his pitches, so despite a fastball that sat 91-93 MPH consistently, occasionally touching 94 MPH, he couldn't get the pitches over enough and fell behind in too many counts. He stayed mostly with the fastball because hitters weren't offering at his breaking balls. Let's take a look at my first foray into pitch f/x charts. All charts here courtesy of Brooks Baseball's Pitch f/x tool.

Here is Volstad's strikezone plot, with pitch types indicated. There are some random choices for pitch types that probably weren't the ones he threw. In particular, the "slider" was most likely a curveball and the the fastballs were likely more decently split between two- and four-seamer.


Now, here's the same chart indicating pitch results.


The charts show what one could tell empirically by watching the game. Volstad was a good deal out of control tonight, unable to pound the lower half of the zone like he usually does. His pitches tonight were scattered up and down the zone, and Red Sox hitters knew it; they laid off the majority of the pitches out of the zone, including almost all of Volstad's curveballs, and forced him to keep it in the strike zone, where they were able to get good contact on him.

Despite the erratic location and the need to throw within the strike zone, the Red Sox didn't pound him with big extra base hits. Only two of the nine hits Volstad allowed were for extra-bases, including David Ortiz's home run. So while they were certainly making good contact on Volstad and taking advantage of the juicky fastballs he was tossing high in the zone, they weren't hitting him all that hard, though I recall many of these singles being line drive hits. Hits such as Nick Green's infield single that squirted past Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, however, point towards some "hitting it where they ain't" type luck.

Volstad has improved as more of a strikeout pitcher, but he still requires a lot from his infield defense. With his work more pitch-to-contact than other guys in the rotation like Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson, it's imperative that Volstad keep the ball down in the strike zone to be effective. If he can't locate and begins to throw too many belt-high strikes, that's when the opposing team's swings get a bit more effective.

Marlins pitchers need to learn to hold runners.

Seems like this has been a problem all season long. The Marlins are tied with, ironically enough, the Red Sox with the most stolen bases allowed in the majors, and teams have scouted and used that knowledge to perfection. This development is due to two factors: 1) Marlins pitchers apparently have been slow to the plate out of the stretch; 2) Marlins catchers haven't made good enough throws.

My initial inclination would be to blame the first factor primarily. John Baker and Ronny Paulino have done a serviceable job behind the plate, but are not the strongest of arms. However, the team's pitching staff has definitely appeared slow to the plate and somewhat indifferent to runners on first. Truthfully though, I have no statistics to back this up, so while I make this claim, a more thorough study using Pitch f/x may be in line. Does anybody have a value for the average time to the plate for major league pitchers?

Fish Bites, 06/12/2009

I'll be attempting to put up a regular news and notes column highlighting the day's Florida Marlins news, along with any other interesting tidbits around Major League Baseball. Let's dive into today's links.

- MLB.com reports that manager Fredi Gonzalez expects it will be another three or four days until Anibal Sanchez can start throwing, meaning there's no chance he'll be available to pitch when he's first eligible to come off the DL June 18. With Sean West's last gem and how the rest of staff has performed admirably, I don't think we'll miss Sanchez and his current 5.22 FIP. I don't doubt some of that was his shoulder, but he'd been pitching poorly before his last DL stint and all the way back into when he first came back midseason last year. Maybe something's still wrong with him, a Triple-A stint or extended rehab session in the minors may be in the works.

- Speaking of the rotation, Dave Hyde of the Sun-Sentinel has not given up on the Marlins' season yet, and it's because the young starters are starting to get it. I'm just as much of a fan of our young staff, but there is work to be done. It's been noted that the Marlins' starters have increased their K/9 and decreased their BB/9, typically a great sign, but when two of your three main cogs are giving around 1.5 HR/9, it's going to be tough to win back this season. I love how Miller has been playing as of late, and if he can keep his walks down, he'll be a mainstay. Chris Volstad's HR/FB is likely fluky and should come down, but Ricky Nolasco's HR/FB has remained around his career totals, with his HR/9 up 0.2. I'm certain that if he can get that value down, his numbers will look more like those of last year, but it remains to be seen. I'm still optimistic.

- The Palm Beach Post wraps up the Marlins' draft, noting that half of the team's selections were pitchers. No real surprises here, folks. Larry Beinfest and company run this organization excellently, and if there's one thing we've learned about their style, which has seemed to work well so far, is that they stock up on pitching, especially high school arms ala Chris Volstad. Here's hoping that Chad James kid can bring it, along with the rest of the team's new arms.

- MLB.com also has a random piece on the fastest player in baseball. Lot's of typical names, no surprises here. Marlins third base coach Bo Porter went with the homer pick of Emilio Bonifacio, though I can't imagine he'd know that well since Bonifacio is hardly on base. Similarly, Braves catcher Brian McCann chose Michael Bourn and Willy Taveras, two guys who would be somewhat lucky to have an OBP above .310. In all honesty, I'm really tired of the fast leadoff man ideal. Can we find guys like Taveras or Joey Gathright that can actually get on base? Seems like every speedster has a horrendous bat and, even if they could draw walks, pitchers just pound the strike zone and dare them to hit more than a weak grounder up the middle. Jose Reyes, please lead the way.

- I actually almost forgot this one. Witness Kansas City vs. Cleveland last night, and in particular the highlights of the game winning hit by Mark DeRosa. That bird cannot be feeling well this morning.

Blogservations 06/10/09, Cardinals 13, Marlins 4

Sat and watched through much of this game, though I missed the debacle that was the eighth inning and on for somewhat important reasons. Still, here's some of my take on tonight's game.

Chris Volstad has a serious case of homeritis.

It's spread all over his pitching game. On the box score it says he only gave up one long ball, a three-run shot in the first inning to Colby Rasmus. But watching the game, he gave up another long fly ball to Yadier Molina that would've been a home run in almost any other park, but thanks to the "Teal Monster" out in left and Molina going into a bit of a home run trot, it was reduced to a long fly ball single. In my view, Volstad pretty much gave up two more jacks tonight, and in reality it's been a season-long trend.

This year, Volstad has improved on two of three of his peripheral stats, the true outcome ratios. His K/9 has jumped up to 7.18 from 5.55 last year, and his BB/9 has dropped to 2.68 from 3.84. The primary reason Volstad was able to post a 2.88 ERA last year was a microscopic home run rate; he only allowed two home runs in 84 1/3 innings last year, good for a paltry 3.9% HR/FB ratio. This year, that's been a completely different story. Including tonight, he has allowed 13 home runs, inflating his HR/FB to an absurd 17.4%. His true value is likely somewhere in between those two extremes, and once he regresses we'll see an ERA hovering in the high 3's (this assumes a regression in the K% as well, as I don't think he's ready to strike out major leaguers at that sort of pace just yet). Still, it's an alarming trend, and Volstad needs to help out by doing what he's supposed to be able to do best, keep the ball down and get it on the ground.