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2019 MLB Draft: Day One summary
5 years ago
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Fish Frenzy moved to MarlinManiac.com!
It's official, the move has been made from Fish Frenzy to Marlin Maniac! Please, everyone who enjoyed the content here, make your way over to the Marlin Maniac site, still with the same stuff, different name. Enjoy, and wish me luck!
Fish Frenzy has moved!
All right folks, I know Fish Frenzy just got it's feet on the ground, but I am trying to get it running as fast as possible. We've been moved as part of the FanSided.com network! The team's new site will be MarlinManiac, located soon at marlinmaniac.com. I'll try to keep this site up for general baseball works, but please, anyone who enjoyed the content on this site, please check out the new site as soon as it comes online within the next few days.
Note about tonight's game. There will be a BoniLine posted either here or at the new site whenever it is available, but there will be no Blogservations piece. I won't be able to watch the game unfortunately, I'll be out on a date tonight. In the next Fish Bites, I'll drop a line or two of thoughts on the game.
All right everyone, I hope you all can move with me when the new site comes up. A link will be posted here. Thanks for all the support and I'll see you over on the other side!
Note about tonight's game. There will be a BoniLine posted either here or at the new site whenever it is available, but there will be no Blogservations piece. I won't be able to watch the game unfortunately, I'll be out on a date tonight. In the next Fish Bites, I'll drop a line or two of thoughts on the game.
All right everyone, I hope you all can move with me when the new site comes up. A link will be posted here. Thanks for all the support and I'll see you over on the other side!
Fish Bites
Today's Marlins links come with me tired. Got up at 6 AM, but ready to link by 10 AM. Here we go.
- Tonight's game between Florida and Boston should be an interesting one. Ricky Nolasco will go up against Jon Lester, and one can be assured that a lot of bats will be missed. With the way the Marlins have been hitting all series, it's likely many of those will be on our side, but remember that the Sox didn't look very good against Andrew Miller last night, and Nolasco has been on his game as of late. In Nolasco's two outings since returning from his stint at Triple-A, he's thrown 13 innings, allowing 15 hits with 13 strikeouts and four walks to his credit. If the Fish can put up some early runs support, we could salvage a game in this three-game series.
- As for last night's game, congratulations to Red Sox starter and former Marlin Brad Penny for earning his 100th win last night. I'll always remember Penny fondly for pitching well in 2003, especially coming up big during the playoffs and World Series for the Marlins. Were it not for Beckett's masterful two games, we might have seen Penny win a World Series MVP.
- The Marlins won't financially close the stadium deal for another two weeks, reports the Herald. As mentioned yesterday, the combination of a forced vote thanks to Wachovia's demand for up-front fees and a citizen lawsuit trying to force an injunction on construction. I can't wait for all of this to be over.
- Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel Marlins blog reports some early struggles for top prospect Mike Stanton in Double-A. Well, that can't be too surprising, as it is the second biggest jump in a young prospect's career, moving from A to Double-A. By all accounts however, I've heard Stanton is one smart kid, and he's young enough that he can also afford to make some mistakes early. As Rodriguez mentions, the worst taht could happen is that he spends the rest of the year in Double-A (he definitely has nothing else to prove in A-ball), plays offseason ball, comes to Spring Training, and repeats Double-A until the Show calls. And it will come a calling for Stanton.
- Wes Helms doesn't think players with PED's on their record should get into the Hall of Fame. Certainly one way to look at it, though I fear the Hall will be pretty empty with some pretty good names left out if it were to turn out like that. I don't like to weigh in on steroids because I'm more interested in baseball today, but if everyone was supposedly doing it, it'd be tough to hold everyone out.
- For some non-Marlins stuff, check out Dan Turkenkopf's piece on adjusting steals for win value. Fun to see, especially with regarding Rickey Henderson's 1982 record 130 steals. For those who think the steal is back as a dangerous threat, take note. Also, Tom Tango doesn't quite agree with Dan's numbers.
- Finally, in case you haven't seen this, here's Dave Cameron's take on the most devastating crappy pitch in the big leagues. I laughed a lot when I read this, but you can't argue with the results.
- Tonight's game between Florida and Boston should be an interesting one. Ricky Nolasco will go up against Jon Lester, and one can be assured that a lot of bats will be missed. With the way the Marlins have been hitting all series, it's likely many of those will be on our side, but remember that the Sox didn't look very good against Andrew Miller last night, and Nolasco has been on his game as of late. In Nolasco's two outings since returning from his stint at Triple-A, he's thrown 13 innings, allowing 15 hits with 13 strikeouts and four walks to his credit. If the Fish can put up some early runs support, we could salvage a game in this three-game series.
- As for last night's game, congratulations to Red Sox starter and former Marlin Brad Penny for earning his 100th win last night. I'll always remember Penny fondly for pitching well in 2003, especially coming up big during the playoffs and World Series for the Marlins. Were it not for Beckett's masterful two games, we might have seen Penny win a World Series MVP.
- The Marlins won't financially close the stadium deal for another two weeks, reports the Herald. As mentioned yesterday, the combination of a forced vote thanks to Wachovia's demand for up-front fees and a citizen lawsuit trying to force an injunction on construction. I can't wait for all of this to be over.
- Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel Marlins blog reports some early struggles for top prospect Mike Stanton in Double-A. Well, that can't be too surprising, as it is the second biggest jump in a young prospect's career, moving from A to Double-A. By all accounts however, I've heard Stanton is one smart kid, and he's young enough that he can also afford to make some mistakes early. As Rodriguez mentions, the worst taht could happen is that he spends the rest of the year in Double-A (he definitely has nothing else to prove in A-ball), plays offseason ball, comes to Spring Training, and repeats Double-A until the Show calls. And it will come a calling for Stanton.
- Wes Helms doesn't think players with PED's on their record should get into the Hall of Fame. Certainly one way to look at it, though I fear the Hall will be pretty empty with some pretty good names left out if it were to turn out like that. I don't like to weigh in on steroids because I'm more interested in baseball today, but if everyone was supposedly doing it, it'd be tough to hold everyone out.
- For some non-Marlins stuff, check out Dan Turkenkopf's piece on adjusting steals for win value. Fun to see, especially with regarding Rickey Henderson's 1982 record 130 steals. For those who think the steal is back as a dangerous threat, take note. Also, Tom Tango doesn't quite agree with Dan's numbers.
- Finally, in case you haven't seen this, here's Dave Cameron's take on the most devastating crappy pitch in the big leagues. I laughed a lot when I read this, but you can't argue with the results.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Blogservations 06/17/09, Red Sox 6, Marlins 1
There's always games like this where you can get really frustrated as a fan. It was tough to watch the Marlins tonight, as it was obvious that they were hitting far worse than Brad Penny was pitching. It was also difficult to see the team give up runs on tough outs, plays where there was a good deal of luck involved. Let's go into the observations.
If you don't hit, you can't win.
Elementary really, so it isn't some grand sabermetric discovery. Then again, I didn't really need Hit f/x or anything like that to tell you the Marlins offense was atrocious tonight. What made it especially frustrating was the fact that Brad Penny was more than hittable. His fastball was definitely working, with 95-98 MPH heat throughout his innings. But he wasn't placing pitches particularly well and there was a good set of pitches that were out there to be hit. Look at his pitch type strike zone, again courtesy of Brooks Baseball.
It's difficult to see at the size I have it, but it's simple to tell that:
1) There were a good amount of belt- and thigh-high fastballs the Marlins could have driven.
2) Penny hung a huge amount of curveballs middle and high in the zone.
Yet the Marlins eked out, from my count, approximately four hard hit balls, one of which ended as Jorge Cantu's two-bag error that drove in the team's only run. Two others were doubles by Ross Gload and John Baker, but the team never capitalized.
This chart shows graphically the patient approach the Marlins were taking with Penny. The Fish whiffed only five times and only once outside the generalized strike zone. While they did also foul off one or two pitches outside the zone, for the most part the team stayed disciplined and swung at strikes. But all this hard work was for naught, as the team only turned four of those juicy pitches located middle and mid-high into bases. A frustrating evening to be sure.
Andrew Miller had some bad breaks.
In contrast, let's take a look at Andrew Miller's night out.
Pitch f/x was all over the place with regards to the types of pitches it was seeing, but as we know, Miller has a three-pitch arsenal: fastball, slider, changeup. Tonight, he was having some decent success with the changeup, throwing it 55% of the time for strikes and placing it where it would be difficult to hit, typically problems for Miller. In general he was able to keep the ball down, a stark contrast to Chris Volstad's erratic outing. Miller was able to get five swinging strikes outside of the zone, primarily with the fastball, which was ranging from 92-95 MPH and occasionally touching the high 90's.
So if all of that good was working, how come he gave up four runs? Two major things contributed to the run scoring against Miller:
1) He was missing the zone a lot, mostly down. Can't blame him too much though, as he was getting squeezed in the strike zone (more on that later).
2) He was getting really unlucky. A lot of soft hit balls found their way through the infield, into holes in the outfield defense, and other inaccessible areas. Some of that is our defense, some of that was just plain bad luck.
I can't be too disappointed in Miller's performance. He struck out six while walking four, right around his average performance, but as I mentioned he was being squeezed pretty bad down in the zone. He was getting whiffs with his pitches and showing better command on his changeup, a key to making him a solid starter. As a Marlins fan, you hope a better strike zone can make his numbers look better.
The strike zone seemed way off.
As I watched the game, I noticed some awkward stuff about the strike zone home plate umpire Jerry Crawford was calling. In particular, the one consistent thing I saw was a lack of a knee-high strike, made particularly obvious because Miller was living in that area of the typical strike zone. Normally, I'd be pretty happy to see a pitcher working down consistently like that, but take a look at the strikezone plot for both teams.
My suspicion during the game seemed correct; Crawford was definitely tightening up the bottom of the zone and not giving out the knee-high strike. But Penny was everywhere, so it didn't hurt him nearly as much. But there are a lot of little green triangles on there representing the Marlins' pitchers, and particularly Miller. Getting squeezed there really hurt his game plan, as it forced him to go a little higher in the zone or risk walking more men. He chose the latter and got burned by a few untimely lucky hits.
The other oddity I spotted was this.
There were a lot of red marks indicating Boston strikes called off of the inner half of the plate to left handers. Miller seemed to miss by much more to that side, and in addition faced significantly fewer left handers than Boston did; the Marlins trotted out Chris Coghlan, Ross Gload, Jeremy Hermida, and the switch-hitting Emilio Bonifacio, while the left side for Boston was populated by Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz only.
I didn't notice this in-game, but it makes me particularly mad. When the umps don't call an even strikezone for both teams, it's hard to gauge what types of pitches and locations should be used to get hitters out. These sorts of thing can really affect a pitcher's performance, and aren't usually seen through the box score stats. Just looking at the box score, I would have said Miller had a difficult struggle, but using the Pitch f/x data and some observation, you can tell he was really more in the strike zone than it was called. Combine that with some bad luck and you can get the makings of a poor performance.
The opposite went for Penny and the Sox starters. They got to take advantage of a fairly consistently called "bad" strike. I know Pitch f/x normalizes the strike zone, so the real zone is more hitter dependent, but those sort of bad calls can get players into chasing pitches that are far worse. It all stinks of just a forgettable evening for the Fish.
If you don't hit, you can't win.
Elementary really, so it isn't some grand sabermetric discovery. Then again, I didn't really need Hit f/x or anything like that to tell you the Marlins offense was atrocious tonight. What made it especially frustrating was the fact that Brad Penny was more than hittable. His fastball was definitely working, with 95-98 MPH heat throughout his innings. But he wasn't placing pitches particularly well and there was a good set of pitches that were out there to be hit. Look at his pitch type strike zone, again courtesy of Brooks Baseball.
1) There were a good amount of belt- and thigh-high fastballs the Marlins could have driven.
2) Penny hung a huge amount of curveballs middle and high in the zone.
Yet the Marlins eked out, from my count, approximately four hard hit balls, one of which ended as Jorge Cantu's two-bag error that drove in the team's only run. Two others were doubles by Ross Gload and John Baker, but the team never capitalized.
Andrew Miller had some bad breaks.
In contrast, let's take a look at Andrew Miller's night out.
So if all of that good was working, how come he gave up four runs? Two major things contributed to the run scoring against Miller:
1) He was missing the zone a lot, mostly down. Can't blame him too much though, as he was getting squeezed in the strike zone (more on that later).
2) He was getting really unlucky. A lot of soft hit balls found their way through the infield, into holes in the outfield defense, and other inaccessible areas. Some of that is our defense, some of that was just plain bad luck.
I can't be too disappointed in Miller's performance. He struck out six while walking four, right around his average performance, but as I mentioned he was being squeezed pretty bad down in the zone. He was getting whiffs with his pitches and showing better command on his changeup, a key to making him a solid starter. As a Marlins fan, you hope a better strike zone can make his numbers look better.
The strike zone seemed way off.
As I watched the game, I noticed some awkward stuff about the strike zone home plate umpire Jerry Crawford was calling. In particular, the one consistent thing I saw was a lack of a knee-high strike, made particularly obvious because Miller was living in that area of the typical strike zone. Normally, I'd be pretty happy to see a pitcher working down consistently like that, but take a look at the strikezone plot for both teams.
The other oddity I spotted was this.
I didn't notice this in-game, but it makes me particularly mad. When the umps don't call an even strikezone for both teams, it's hard to gauge what types of pitches and locations should be used to get hitters out. These sorts of thing can really affect a pitcher's performance, and aren't usually seen through the box score stats. Just looking at the box score, I would have said Miller had a difficult struggle, but using the Pitch f/x data and some observation, you can tell he was really more in the strike zone than it was called. Combine that with some bad luck and you can get the makings of a poor performance.
The opposite went for Penny and the Sox starters. They got to take advantage of a fairly consistently called "bad" strike. I know Pitch f/x normalizes the strike zone, so the real zone is more hitter dependent, but those sort of bad calls can get players into chasing pitches that are far worse. It all stinks of just a forgettable evening for the Fish.
The BoniLine, 06/17/09
An absolutely anemic performance for the Marlins at the plate, so this BoniLine won't be so striking to see.
Emilio Bonifacio: 4 PA, 0 H, 1 K, WPA: -.172
Best Performer:
Jorge Cantu: 4 PA, 1 H, 1 1B, WPA: .072
Cantu gets it on the back of a run delivered in the first inning. It looked like the Marlins were going to get to Brad Penny, as he as throwing a lot of pitches. But as it has been much of the season, the timely hits never happened, and the team lost.
Emilio Bonifacio: 4 PA, 0 H, 1 K, WPA: -.172
Best Performer:
Jorge Cantu: 4 PA, 1 H, 1 1B, WPA: .072
Cantu gets it on the back of a run delivered in the first inning. It looked like the Marlins were going to get to Brad Penny, as he as throwing a lot of pitches. But as it has been much of the season, the timely hits never happened, and the team lost.
The Real Worth of Lineup Tinkering
Yesterday in Fish Bites, I posted a link to an interesting quickie study using Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool of the potential for one of Tony LaRussa's famously quirky moves: batting the pitcher slot 8th instead of 9th. Here's a quick look at the results I calculated on the simulator myself.
Both of these results do come with signifcant caveats, namely that the statistics listed here are for about a third of a season's plate appearances and by no means stable yet. Sure, one and two wins sound like they matter and they do, given how we evaluate players with the latest run estimators and the closeness of playoff races these days; ask the Mets if they would've liked a one- or two-win improvement over Luis Castillo these last few years. But with only a a third of a season's worth of data and plate appearances, the inserted OBP and SLG values could be of little meaning. Rob Neyer pointed out an Alan Schwarz article in the New York Times earlier in the season about simulators and their ability to project baseball data; you can find Neyer's post here. Here the study mentioned was a difference between batting Alex Rodriguez cleanup vs. 9th in the Yankees lineup. Over 100 simulated seasons, the average differential was about 40 runs, or four wins. In comparison, our total projects a 1.6 win difference between batting the team's worst hitter (the pitcher) 8th or 9th in the lineup based on a third of a season's data. I find that difficult to believe.
Still, the results are significant in telling us something, and that something is not so much that the configuration of a pitcher batting 8th is impressive, but rather that the configuration of batting a player with a .291 OBP second is not. Plate appearances dominate the difference in run potential for lineups, because the more chances efficient and better players get at producing runs, the better those runs get produced. Bonifacio and his .273 wOBA are just not an efficient use of the second most amount of plate appearances for your team. Putting a much more reasonable player available to you at that slot and moving Bonifacio down in the order will provide a similar return.
Finally, this sort of batting order decision clearly takes a backseat to better player evaluation. Using our nifty tool, consider replacing Bonifacio in his current spot in the lineup with a league average player in the National League, sporting a .332 OBP and .404 SLG: 4.778 runs per game, a full 0.231 runs, or 37.4 more runs over the course of the full season. This is probably a bit of an overstatement as well, as Bonifacio was worth about -12.5 runs compared to the average over the first 286 plate appearances, and I can't imagine him getting anything more than 750 PA's over the full season batting #2 in the lineup. At 750 PA's and his current rate of hitting ineptitude, Bonifacio would be worth about 32 runs less than an average player with the bat. Even then, those values trump any lineup changes being made, proving that the best way to fix an ailing offense is usually to replace bad players with decent ones, not shuttling them around in the lineup.
As a final look at the study, and a way to make myself feel smarter, here's the lineup I designed in my head prior to using the tool, based on what I feel would be the best use of the team's limited OBP skills.
1) LF Coghlan
2) RF Hermida
3) SS Ramirez
4) 1B Cantu
5) 2B Uggla
6) CF Ross
7) C Baker
8) 3B Bonifacio
9) Pitcher
This lineup calculated to 4.690 runs per game. Not half bad. I can't wait to see when Gaby Sanchez comes up and fills in for Bonifacio's spot. We'll return and reexamine this later, with better sample sizes for players like Coghlan who currently haven't played enough yet.
The current lineup: 4.547 runs/gameAs you can see, the difference between the current lineup and the LaRussa lineup is somewhat significant. 2.6 wins is nothing to scoff at; it's the approximate difference between an average player and Dan Uggla last year. But if you take a look at the difference between the sensible lineup and the LaRussa lineup, the run differential is less pronounced, approximately one win less.
The sensible lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and Baker: 4.646 runs/game
The LaRussa lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and the pitcher: 4.709 runs/game
The difference between the current lineup and the sensible one is worth a modest 16 runs over 162 games, but the difference between the current and LaRussa lineups was calculated at a 26 runs in 162 games.
Both of these results do come with signifcant caveats, namely that the statistics listed here are for about a third of a season's plate appearances and by no means stable yet. Sure, one and two wins sound like they matter and they do, given how we evaluate players with the latest run estimators and the closeness of playoff races these days; ask the Mets if they would've liked a one- or two-win improvement over Luis Castillo these last few years. But with only a a third of a season's worth of data and plate appearances, the inserted OBP and SLG values could be of little meaning. Rob Neyer pointed out an Alan Schwarz article in the New York Times earlier in the season about simulators and their ability to project baseball data; you can find Neyer's post here. Here the study mentioned was a difference between batting Alex Rodriguez cleanup vs. 9th in the Yankees lineup. Over 100 simulated seasons, the average differential was about 40 runs, or four wins. In comparison, our total projects a 1.6 win difference between batting the team's worst hitter (the pitcher) 8th or 9th in the lineup based on a third of a season's data. I find that difficult to believe.
Still, the results are significant in telling us something, and that something is not so much that the configuration of a pitcher batting 8th is impressive, but rather that the configuration of batting a player with a .291 OBP second is not. Plate appearances dominate the difference in run potential for lineups, because the more chances efficient and better players get at producing runs, the better those runs get produced. Bonifacio and his .273 wOBA are just not an efficient use of the second most amount of plate appearances for your team. Putting a much more reasonable player available to you at that slot and moving Bonifacio down in the order will provide a similar return.
Finally, this sort of batting order decision clearly takes a backseat to better player evaluation. Using our nifty tool, consider replacing Bonifacio in his current spot in the lineup with a league average player in the National League, sporting a .332 OBP and .404 SLG: 4.778 runs per game, a full 0.231 runs, or 37.4 more runs over the course of the full season. This is probably a bit of an overstatement as well, as Bonifacio was worth about -12.5 runs compared to the average over the first 286 plate appearances, and I can't imagine him getting anything more than 750 PA's over the full season batting #2 in the lineup. At 750 PA's and his current rate of hitting ineptitude, Bonifacio would be worth about 32 runs less than an average player with the bat. Even then, those values trump any lineup changes being made, proving that the best way to fix an ailing offense is usually to replace bad players with decent ones, not shuttling them around in the lineup.
As a final look at the study, and a way to make myself feel smarter, here's the lineup I designed in my head prior to using the tool, based on what I feel would be the best use of the team's limited OBP skills.
1) LF Coghlan
2) RF Hermida
3) SS Ramirez
4) 1B Cantu
5) 2B Uggla
6) CF Ross
7) C Baker
8) 3B Bonifacio
9) Pitcher
This lineup calculated to 4.690 runs per game. Not half bad. I can't wait to see when Gaby Sanchez comes up and fills in for Bonifacio's spot. We'll return and reexamine this later, with better sample sizes for players like Coghlan who currently haven't played enough yet.
Fish Bites
Marlins-related business, dead ahead.
- HBPGate, as I began referring to it seconds ago, is over, according to Fredi Gonzalez. Good to hear it was handled well. Best line in the whole situation though?
- The sale of the Marlins' new stadium bonds has been put on hold, Matthew Haggman of the Herald reports. This is apparently due to an emergency motion filed on Monday for a temporary injunction on construction. Combine this with the Wachovia situation. If you couldn't already tell, this has been a massive mess from the start. Just goes to show that if people don't want it, it's going to take hell for even politicians and rich businessmen to make it happen.
- Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post's Fish Tank blog commends Burke Badenhop on his excellent effort in relief last night. The Hopper was unspectacularly solid, striking out only two while walking two and scattering four hits, though he did indeed not allow any runs charged to him. Capozzi points out Badenhop wasn't happy with the runs he let through that were charged to Chris Volstad. As well he shouldn't be.
- R.J Anderson on the worst regular in baseball. And your winner is...Brian Giles of San Diego. Interesting case for Giles, who had a solid year last season and blocked a deal to the Red Sox. But you and I both know who I wanted to get the nod.
-MLB.com Marlins site has an excellent article profiling the difficulty that is the Road to the Show. John Baker is on there prominently, and it's definitely an interesting read into the perspective of the long-time minor leaguer.
- And finally, our first backlink, courtesy of our friends at FishStripes! Thanks to the gang over there, looking forward to working with you guys to keep a healthy Marlins fan community going.
- HBPGate, as I began referring to it seconds ago, is over, according to Fredi Gonzalez. Good to hear it was handled well. Best line in the whole situation though?
“I want to apologize for my tirade,” Gonzalez said. “I know you guys are trying to do your jobs and everything. I try to protect my team. I’m like a big bear with baby cubs I guess.”Fredi is the big mama bear, and the Marlins are the little cubs? Silly images aside, I'm sure he tore into the cub that got us into this mess in the first place. Or at least he better have. Don't be coddling our cubs now, Big Mama.
- The sale of the Marlins' new stadium bonds has been put on hold, Matthew Haggman of the Herald reports. This is apparently due to an emergency motion filed on Monday for a temporary injunction on construction. Combine this with the Wachovia situation. If you couldn't already tell, this has been a massive mess from the start. Just goes to show that if people don't want it, it's going to take hell for even politicians and rich businessmen to make it happen.
- Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post's Fish Tank blog commends Burke Badenhop on his excellent effort in relief last night. The Hopper was unspectacularly solid, striking out only two while walking two and scattering four hits, though he did indeed not allow any runs charged to him. Capozzi points out Badenhop wasn't happy with the runs he let through that were charged to Chris Volstad. As well he shouldn't be.
- R.J Anderson on the worst regular in baseball. And your winner is...Brian Giles of San Diego. Interesting case for Giles, who had a solid year last season and blocked a deal to the Red Sox. But you and I both know who I wanted to get the nod.
-MLB.com Marlins site has an excellent article profiling the difficulty that is the Road to the Show. John Baker is on there prominently, and it's definitely an interesting read into the perspective of the long-time minor leaguer.
- And finally, our first backlink, courtesy of our friends at FishStripes! Thanks to the gang over there, looking forward to working with you guys to keep a healthy Marlins fan community going.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Blogservations 06/16/09, Red Sox 8, Marlins 2
Can't be all that surprised by the results of this game. The high-strikeout Marlins don't do well against the slow pitchers with the big breaking balls. Or at least that's how the cliche goes. Let's take a look at some of my thoughts.
Chris Volstad tosses another dud.
Volstad had his second bad outing in a row and the second outing in the season in which he's given up five or more runs. A look at the peripheral stats shows part of the problem: Volstad has struck out only two batters his last 9 1/3 innings (two starts) and has given up two more home runs in the process, putting his season total at 14. Tonight he wasn't able to place his pitches, so despite a fastball that sat 91-93 MPH consistently, occasionally touching 94 MPH, he couldn't get the pitches over enough and fell behind in too many counts. He stayed mostly with the fastball because hitters weren't offering at his breaking balls. Let's take a look at my first foray into pitch f/x charts. All charts here courtesy of Brooks Baseball's Pitch f/x tool.
Here is Volstad's strikezone plot, with pitch types indicated. There are some random choices for pitch types that probably weren't the ones he threw. In particular, the "slider" was most likely a curveball and the the fastballs were likely more decently split between two- and four-seamer.
Now, here's the same chart indicating pitch results.
The charts show what one could tell empirically by watching the game. Volstad was a good deal out of control tonight, unable to pound the lower half of the zone like he usually does. His pitches tonight were scattered up and down the zone, and Red Sox hitters knew it; they laid off the majority of the pitches out of the zone, including almost all of Volstad's curveballs, and forced him to keep it in the strike zone, where they were able to get good contact on him.
Despite the erratic location and the need to throw within the strike zone, the Red Sox didn't pound him with big extra base hits. Only two of the nine hits Volstad allowed were for extra-bases, including David Ortiz's home run. So while they were certainly making good contact on Volstad and taking advantage of the juicky fastballs he was tossing high in the zone, they weren't hitting him all that hard, though I recall many of these singles being line drive hits. Hits such as Nick Green's infield single that squirted past Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, however, point towards some "hitting it where they ain't" type luck.
Volstad has improved as more of a strikeout pitcher, but he still requires a lot from his infield defense. With his work more pitch-to-contact than other guys in the rotation like Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson, it's imperative that Volstad keep the ball down in the strike zone to be effective. If he can't locate and begins to throw too many belt-high strikes, that's when the opposing team's swings get a bit more effective.
Marlins pitchers need to learn to hold runners.
Seems like this has been a problem all season long. The Marlins are tied with, ironically enough, the Red Sox with the most stolen bases allowed in the majors, and teams have scouted and used that knowledge to perfection. This development is due to two factors: 1) Marlins pitchers apparently have been slow to the plate out of the stretch; 2) Marlins catchers haven't made good enough throws.
My initial inclination would be to blame the first factor primarily. John Baker and Ronny Paulino have done a serviceable job behind the plate, but are not the strongest of arms. However, the team's pitching staff has definitely appeared slow to the plate and somewhat indifferent to runners on first. Truthfully though, I have no statistics to back this up, so while I make this claim, a more thorough study using Pitch f/x may be in line. Does anybody have a value for the average time to the plate for major league pitchers?
Chris Volstad tosses another dud.
Volstad had his second bad outing in a row and the second outing in the season in which he's given up five or more runs. A look at the peripheral stats shows part of the problem: Volstad has struck out only two batters his last 9 1/3 innings (two starts) and has given up two more home runs in the process, putting his season total at 14. Tonight he wasn't able to place his pitches, so despite a fastball that sat 91-93 MPH consistently, occasionally touching 94 MPH, he couldn't get the pitches over enough and fell behind in too many counts. He stayed mostly with the fastball because hitters weren't offering at his breaking balls. Let's take a look at my first foray into pitch f/x charts. All charts here courtesy of Brooks Baseball's Pitch f/x tool.
Here is Volstad's strikezone plot, with pitch types indicated. There are some random choices for pitch types that probably weren't the ones he threw. In particular, the "slider" was most likely a curveball and the the fastballs were likely more decently split between two- and four-seamer.
Now, here's the same chart indicating pitch results.
The charts show what one could tell empirically by watching the game. Volstad was a good deal out of control tonight, unable to pound the lower half of the zone like he usually does. His pitches tonight were scattered up and down the zone, and Red Sox hitters knew it; they laid off the majority of the pitches out of the zone, including almost all of Volstad's curveballs, and forced him to keep it in the strike zone, where they were able to get good contact on him.
Despite the erratic location and the need to throw within the strike zone, the Red Sox didn't pound him with big extra base hits. Only two of the nine hits Volstad allowed were for extra-bases, including David Ortiz's home run. So while they were certainly making good contact on Volstad and taking advantage of the juicky fastballs he was tossing high in the zone, they weren't hitting him all that hard, though I recall many of these singles being line drive hits. Hits such as Nick Green's infield single that squirted past Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, however, point towards some "hitting it where they ain't" type luck.
Volstad has improved as more of a strikeout pitcher, but he still requires a lot from his infield defense. With his work more pitch-to-contact than other guys in the rotation like Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson, it's imperative that Volstad keep the ball down in the strike zone to be effective. If he can't locate and begins to throw too many belt-high strikes, that's when the opposing team's swings get a bit more effective.
Marlins pitchers need to learn to hold runners.
Seems like this has been a problem all season long. The Marlins are tied with, ironically enough, the Red Sox with the most stolen bases allowed in the majors, and teams have scouted and used that knowledge to perfection. This development is due to two factors: 1) Marlins pitchers apparently have been slow to the plate out of the stretch; 2) Marlins catchers haven't made good enough throws.
My initial inclination would be to blame the first factor primarily. John Baker and Ronny Paulino have done a serviceable job behind the plate, but are not the strongest of arms. However, the team's pitching staff has definitely appeared slow to the plate and somewhat indifferent to runners on first. Truthfully though, I have no statistics to back this up, so while I make this claim, a more thorough study using Pitch f/x may be in line. Does anybody have a value for the average time to the plate for major league pitchers?
Waltz, Hutton, and FishStripes: Broadcaster Quality Update
I sat in and watched about eight innings of tonight's ugly 8-3 loss to the Red Sox. I've got some opinions on the Marlins' play tonight, but I'll save that for Blogservations.
No, this part is designed to drop an update on my opinion of tonight's broadcast and what went down on it.
- There were about 10-15 mentions of how patient the Red Sox hitters are as a group. The majority, if not all of them, referenced OBP. I was especially happy to see Hutton pound on how high the top-of-the-lineup guys are in terms of OBP. A good chunk of me thinks he honestly gets that OBP is a big part of being useful at the top of the lineup; after all, the man's very smart to have worked this long in the business. Maybe he was emphasizing it because the Marlins don't do it.
Still, when you hear him talk about Bonifacio like he still has a shot as a leadoff man, you wonder. When you hear him advise Bonifacio to talk to Juan Pierre about the finer points of bunting, you raise your eyebrows. He needs help making contact and drawing walks, not bunting. JP can help the contact, but he's never had an eye for the zone.
By the way, still no mention of slugging percentage. I'm glad that they chose the better one of the OPS parts, but come on. Power is very well measured by SLG, everyone does it, and it's even the cooler, bigger number! Come on guys!
- Waltz made a long mention of Bill James on the broadcast as the two Marlins broadcasters discussed the balanced excellence of the Red Sox front office and scouting. As you know, the immortal Mr. James works for the Sox now, and Waltz expounded upon what James has done for the sabermetric community and the evolution of advanced statistics. There was about a ten second pause after Waltz finished where nothing was said during the broadcast. Waltz then went back to play-by-play. You kind of get the feeling Tommy Hutton wasn't a fan of Bill James.
- Here's what I found the most interesting. Our friends at FishStripes got a TV shoutout on Email Tuesday when dan 2.0 got his question aired and "answered" by the guys. The question asked about maybe moving Chris Coghlan/Dan Uggla into a combination of 2B/3B and playing Brett Carroll's weak bat and plus glove in the outfield. When I heard it, it got me all riled up, because I had the suggested idea too.
These are the same two guys that claim Uggla's reputation is mostly based on the All-Star game and not the obvious lack of range and the statistical backup (career Range Runs at -11.3, though the numbers have been wildly incosistent). Do they think Uggla doesn't have the arm for the hot corner? If so, they should at least go out and say it. Coghlan seems to have a decent enough arm, certainly enough to handle left field. Why not try him at 3B before moving him to a completely foreign position? If the team's scouts honestly felt that he profiled more as an outfielder, why wouldn't they ask the minor league coaches to play him a bit in left field?
I enjoy Waltz's voice and work as a play-by-play guy, and he seems to keep himself informed of at least the people and players we go up against. Hutton clearly knows a lot about the game, but I feel as if he's one of those old timers who is well set in his ways and not looking to change the way he thinks about the game. That's fine for him as a fellow Marlins fan, but it certainly takes away from my enjoyment of the game when he mentions the old cliches of insider baseball instead of updating with the new knowledge now available.
In short, those two still have a ways to go to get a thumbs up from me.
No, this part is designed to drop an update on my opinion of tonight's broadcast and what went down on it.
- There were about 10-15 mentions of how patient the Red Sox hitters are as a group. The majority, if not all of them, referenced OBP. I was especially happy to see Hutton pound on how high the top-of-the-lineup guys are in terms of OBP. A good chunk of me thinks he honestly gets that OBP is a big part of being useful at the top of the lineup; after all, the man's very smart to have worked this long in the business. Maybe he was emphasizing it because the Marlins don't do it.
Still, when you hear him talk about Bonifacio like he still has a shot as a leadoff man, you wonder. When you hear him advise Bonifacio to talk to Juan Pierre about the finer points of bunting, you raise your eyebrows. He needs help making contact and drawing walks, not bunting. JP can help the contact, but he's never had an eye for the zone.
By the way, still no mention of slugging percentage. I'm glad that they chose the better one of the OPS parts, but come on. Power is very well measured by SLG, everyone does it, and it's even the cooler, bigger number! Come on guys!
- Waltz made a long mention of Bill James on the broadcast as the two Marlins broadcasters discussed the balanced excellence of the Red Sox front office and scouting. As you know, the immortal Mr. James works for the Sox now, and Waltz expounded upon what James has done for the sabermetric community and the evolution of advanced statistics. There was about a ten second pause after Waltz finished where nothing was said during the broadcast. Waltz then went back to play-by-play. You kind of get the feeling Tommy Hutton wasn't a fan of Bill James.
- Here's what I found the most interesting. Our friends at FishStripes got a TV shoutout on Email Tuesday when dan 2.0 got his question aired and "answered" by the guys. The question asked about maybe moving Chris Coghlan/Dan Uggla into a combination of 2B/3B and playing Brett Carroll's weak bat and plus glove in the outfield. When I heard it, it got me all riled up, because I had the suggested idea too.
...If the club wanted to play players with nothing in the way of bats, why not move Brett Carroll to LF, where his superior glove could help out the struggling outfield defense. At least in this situation, Fredi wouldn't be tempted to give Brett Carroll a leadoff spot because of his "speed," and Carroll would bring more than lip service to the team's defense. They could try Coghlan at third, where he might have more success, and see if he's worth a long-term look, especially with Dan Uggla's ever-growing arbitration salary.I know, tooting my own horn, but I liked the idea and I was glad to see that someone else had come up with it too. But I guess it was a little much to ask for a decent answer. Waltz froze for a second before proclaiming that it was a "good question," while Hutton went into a diversion about how he was sure Larry Beinfest, Fredi Gonzalez, and the rest of the brain trust thought of the idea. Then, without giving too much reasoning, Waltz waved it off by saying Bonifacio would be better than either of those guys at third, while Hutton claimed that management thought Coghlan profiled as an outfielder anyway.
These are the same two guys that claim Uggla's reputation is mostly based on the All-Star game and not the obvious lack of range and the statistical backup (career Range Runs at -11.3, though the numbers have been wildly incosistent). Do they think Uggla doesn't have the arm for the hot corner? If so, they should at least go out and say it. Coghlan seems to have a decent enough arm, certainly enough to handle left field. Why not try him at 3B before moving him to a completely foreign position? If the team's scouts honestly felt that he profiled more as an outfielder, why wouldn't they ask the minor league coaches to play him a bit in left field?
I enjoy Waltz's voice and work as a play-by-play guy, and he seems to keep himself informed of at least the people and players we go up against. Hutton clearly knows a lot about the game, but I feel as if he's one of those old timers who is well set in his ways and not looking to change the way he thinks about the game. That's fine for him as a fellow Marlins fan, but it certainly takes away from my enjoyment of the game when he mentions the old cliches of insider baseball instead of updating with the new knowledge now available.
In short, those two still have a ways to go to get a thumbs up from me.
The BoniLine, 06/15/09
Emilio Bonifacio showed up at the bottom of the order and ended up posting a pretty good game.
Emilio Bonifacio: 3 PA, 2 H, 1 1B, 1 2B, 2 R, 1 SB, WPA: .045
Best Performer:
Chris Coghlan: 4 PA, 2 H, 1 1B, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 K, WPA: .079
Bonifacio ended up posting the second best WPA for the team, but when the team loses 8-3, decent performances like those of Coghlan and Bonifacio end up looking much better.
Ironically, I was discussing with a roommate Bonifacio's severe lack of power before he hit that line drive off of the very top of the Green Monster. Not sure how he pulled that off, though I suspect part of it is that the Monster is somewhat shallow to left field, but very tall. If he could line the ball more like that, it would certainly help, at least while Fredi keeps throwing him out there.
Emilio Bonifacio: 3 PA, 2 H, 1 1B, 1 2B, 2 R, 1 SB, WPA: .045
Best Performer:
Chris Coghlan: 4 PA, 2 H, 1 1B, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 K, WPA: .079
Bonifacio ended up posting the second best WPA for the team, but when the team loses 8-3, decent performances like those of Coghlan and Bonifacio end up looking much better.
Ironically, I was discussing with a roommate Bonifacio's severe lack of power before he hit that line drive off of the very top of the Green Monster. Not sure how he pulled that off, though I suspect part of it is that the Monster is somewhat shallow to left field, but very tall. If he could line the ball more like that, it would certainly help, at least while Fredi keeps throwing him out there.
Fish Bites
Running on mostly Mountain Dew and 45-60 minutes of sleep for the last day and a half, we begin pounding through today's late afternoon/early evening Bites!
- I was pleasantly surprised to find this interesting Marlins blog and, in particular, this interesting piece by Ryan Colburn on Marlins batting orders, the LaRussa way!
This was all done using Baseball Musings' awesome Lineup Analysis tool, in case you were wondering.
Now I ran the numbers myself and was surprised to find the following values, all using the 1999-2002 model:
The current lineup: 4.547 runs/game
The sensible lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and Baker: 4.646 runs/game
The LaRussa lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and the pitcher: 4.709 runs/game.
The difference between the current lineup and the sensible one is worth a modest 16 runs over 162 games, but the difference between the current and LaRussa lineups was calculated at a 26 runs in 162 games. But there's more fun to be had with this a little later.
- It seems Wachovia, the bank lending a large sum of credit towards paying for the Marlins' new stadium, wants some of that money now. Apparently they're demanding they get their fees paid to them before any money goes out towards other services in the building of the stadium. As a result, it looks like Miami-Dade county commissioners will have to make yet another vote on the issue, along with pushing the final pullout deadline to July 15th from July 1st. Delays, delays, as if this stadium business hasn't had enough of it. It's already bad enough the team sleazed its way into this mostly publicly-funded park, now we can't even get it underway without more problems from the parties involved.
- Slow Marlins news day, so I've got some other links for you. Eric Seidman has an excellent take on Matt Cain's performance, but be forewarned, lest ye be too quick with regression from BABIP.
- Also, a good post at Beyond the Box Score about Cap'n Jetes vs. A-Rod in the playoffs. You'd think it'd be no competition...and it really isn't, though jhmoore does mention that A-Rod has significantly fewer PA's in the playoffs than Jeter's ridiculous 549.
- I was pleasantly surprised to find this interesting Marlins blog and, in particular, this interesting piece by Ryan Colburn on Marlins batting orders, the LaRussa way!
So, here’s why the move makes sense from a logic standpoint: While the pitcher may be the least effective offensive “force” in the lineup, and therefore should garner the fewest at bats, the pitcher is often pinch-hit for, therefore skewing the numbers. For example, Marlins pitchers this year have an On-Base Percentage of .129 and a Slugging Percentage of .118, obviously both of these are quite terrible. However, the 9th spot (which includes pinch-hitters) puts up a .226/.205 line, weighted predominantly by the pitchers’ lines.
Under the lineup of: Chris Coghlan, Emilio Bonifacio, Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla, Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, John Baker and the Pitcher, the Marlins are projected to score roughly 4.5 runs a game over the course of a 162 game season.
However, the “proposed” lineup sits somewhere in the middle, in terms of order, as: Chris Coghlan, John Baker, Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla, Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, Pitcher, Bonifacio would net roughly 4.7 runs/game, making it surprisingly close to ideal.
This was all done using Baseball Musings' awesome Lineup Analysis tool, in case you were wondering.
Now I ran the numbers myself and was surprised to find the following values, all using the 1999-2002 model:
The current lineup: 4.547 runs/game
The sensible lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and Baker: 4.646 runs/game
The LaRussa lineup, flip-flopping Bonifacio and the pitcher: 4.709 runs/game.
The difference between the current lineup and the sensible one is worth a modest 16 runs over 162 games, but the difference between the current and LaRussa lineups was calculated at a 26 runs in 162 games. But there's more fun to be had with this a little later.
- It seems Wachovia, the bank lending a large sum of credit towards paying for the Marlins' new stadium, wants some of that money now. Apparently they're demanding they get their fees paid to them before any money goes out towards other services in the building of the stadium. As a result, it looks like Miami-Dade county commissioners will have to make yet another vote on the issue, along with pushing the final pullout deadline to July 15th from July 1st. Delays, delays, as if this stadium business hasn't had enough of it. It's already bad enough the team sleazed its way into this mostly publicly-funded park, now we can't even get it underway without more problems from the parties involved.
- Slow Marlins news day, so I've got some other links for you. Eric Seidman has an excellent take on Matt Cain's performance, but be forewarned, lest ye be too quick with regression from BABIP.
- Also, a good post at Beyond the Box Score about Cap'n Jetes vs. A-Rod in the playoffs. You'd think it'd be no competition...and it really isn't, though jhmoore does mention that A-Rod has significantly fewer PA's in the playoffs than Jeter's ridiculous 549.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Hanley Ramirez mad at HBP, fans' heads explode
True, as Marlins fans we don't see much in the way of media coverage. But when Hanley Ramirez got a bit prissy about being hit by a pitch, and it followed with Fredi Gonzalez went berserker rage on the media (and likely Hanley as well), well, the stories came a' flying, or as "a' flying" as Marlins stories get. Here's fellow Marlins blog FishStripes take on the issue.
Now, there are some things I can go along with on that, and some things I can't. I agree that what Hanley said was stupid, very stupid. And I also agree that it should have been kept within closed doors, within the clubhouse.
But come on. So what if he wasn't the only person hit? So what if he isn't the team's leader in HBP or home runs? So what if he wasn't the best player in the series (and in terms of Win Probability Added, he wasn't half bad)? He was one of the people hit. He felt bad about the Fish not retaliating, and whether it was right or wrong (my personal opinion is that the Marlins were right), it doesn't mean it's not a legitimate concern in the baseball world.
Let's not confuse why Hanley's comment was dumb. It wasn't dumb because he doesn't lead the team in home runs. It was dumb because saying that kind of stuff to the public media is dumb. He had every right to feel the way he did, just not to say it into the microphone for the crowd to hear.
Now FishStripes was not so harsh, the whole finger-wagging "you weren't even..." section aside. In fact, they were pretty light-handed about the affair, and I liked the way they handled it for the most part. What I haven't liked are the message board responses calling for Hanley's head and wondering why he doesn't work hard or doesn't give his full effort. From what I've seen, he's given his max effort the majority of the time. I haven't seen him dog a grounder or lazy out an infield play. He has occasionally gone into a home run trot prematurely, but what major leaguer who hits home runs hasn't done that? He's given it his all and wants to be on this team.
Honestly, we need to get off his back. He's young, he still has some maturing to do emotionally and mentally before he can handle his job as a major leaguer more seriously. Until then, we Marlins fans should be happy to see him play on the field and kind of tune out the silly things he says.
Dude, I've got news for you, you didn't hit a home run in the series and in fact you weren't even the star of the offensive for the series. Also, you were not the only one to get plunked. In fact, you are not even leading the team in hit by pitches or in home runs.
Is the "I'm going to be scared to hit a home run because I know I'm going to get hit" in chapter two of the How to be a Prima Dona Handbook?
The other part of it is, by publicly saying you are very easy to intimidate to the point you will stop trying, I can guarantee you will get hit and it won't matter how many times the Marlins retaliate, the other team will make you a target.
In the future if Ramirez has a problem he should take it up with Fredi behind close doors. It is the professional way to handle things.
Now, there are some things I can go along with on that, and some things I can't. I agree that what Hanley said was stupid, very stupid. And I also agree that it should have been kept within closed doors, within the clubhouse.
But come on. So what if he wasn't the only person hit? So what if he isn't the team's leader in HBP or home runs? So what if he wasn't the best player in the series (and in terms of Win Probability Added, he wasn't half bad)? He was one of the people hit. He felt bad about the Fish not retaliating, and whether it was right or wrong (my personal opinion is that the Marlins were right), it doesn't mean it's not a legitimate concern in the baseball world.
Let's not confuse why Hanley's comment was dumb. It wasn't dumb because he doesn't lead the team in home runs. It was dumb because saying that kind of stuff to the public media is dumb. He had every right to feel the way he did, just not to say it into the microphone for the crowd to hear.
Now FishStripes was not so harsh, the whole finger-wagging "you weren't even..." section aside. In fact, they were pretty light-handed about the affair, and I liked the way they handled it for the most part. What I haven't liked are the message board responses calling for Hanley's head and wondering why he doesn't work hard or doesn't give his full effort. From what I've seen, he's given his max effort the majority of the time. I haven't seen him dog a grounder or lazy out an infield play. He has occasionally gone into a home run trot prematurely, but what major leaguer who hits home runs hasn't done that? He's given it his all and wants to be on this team.
Honestly, we need to get off his back. He's young, he still has some maturing to do emotionally and mentally before he can handle his job as a major leaguer more seriously. Until then, we Marlins fans should be happy to see him play on the field and kind of tune out the silly things he says.
Everyone knows how bad Bonifacio's been
Rob Neyer knows of my plight.
The most painful of his remaining lines:
There isn't much more that needs to be said, he's been terrible and the front office has been slow in realizing this. Gaby Sanchez can't come soon enough to the majors.
It's probably been a few weeks since I've mentioned this, so here goes again: Bonifacio has been an absolute disaster. Among the 23 third basemen with enough plate appearances to qualify for a batting title (so far), Bonifacio ranks 21st in on-base percentage, 23rd in slugging percentage, and 23rd in OPS. He does have 11 steals ... but he's been caught trying four times and his defensive stats are lousy.
The most painful of his remaining lines:
Every day with Bonifacio in the lineup and Sanchez in the minors is just another day that the Marlins seem to care little about winning.
There isn't much more that needs to be said, he's been terrible and the front office has been slow in realizing this. Gaby Sanchez can't come soon enough to the majors.
Fish Bites
I'm dropping the date label on the Fish Bites pieces. The date's on top, ladies and gents, you can get a good look yourself! Anyway, on to the news and notes.
- Apparently Hanley Ramirez wasn't too happy about being hit by a pitch by Jays reliever Dirk Hayhurst yesterday, and wanted some retaliation as protection. Said Ramirez, in Spanish, "You know, incredible. There's going to come a point where I'm not going to feel protected. I'm going to be scared to hit a home run because I know I'm going to get hit."
I'm not a big fan of the barbarism that is throwing fastballs at other guys intentionally. I'm not exactly sure how that's supposed to help anyone. As a pitcher, you're giving up a base, and as a hitter, you're supposed to forget these sorts of things the next time you're up anyway. So you know I'm not a fan of how Hanley reacted to the situation here. But for him to say that he's going to be scared to hit a home run? Just because the other team is being moronic and childish doesn't the Marlins should follow suit. The way I see it, if he hits you, hit another home run. That should show them you're not afraid of the fastball.
- Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post blogs that Gaby Sanchez has moved to third base and might be on his way up to the big leagues. If so, this would be an obvious replacement for the struggling Emilio Bonifacio. I'm glad to see front office management (and this would be something the front office probably requested Triple-A New Orleans to do) is stepping up in trying to get a bat into third base. That being said, what Capozzi opens up afterwards was much more speculative and potentially devastating.
Capozzi mentions that Sanchez could take third base and move Bonifacio or Coghlan to their more naturla second base position, opening up Dan Uggla to be traded. The Marlins stand currently a game under .500 and, while it's still extremely early in the season, well within wild card reach, provided they start playing better. Of course, that sort of positioning doesn't imply that the Marlins won't make a move to help the team weather its limited finances as best it can. Uggla has been rumored to be involved in trade rumors ever since the team decided not to hand out a long-term deal to him after giving Hanley a six-year deal. This decision was absolutely correct; Uggla is 29 years old, is a below average defender at his current position, and figures to age in a not so graceful fashion. There was simply no reason to buy out any of his arbitration years for the likely $8 million a year it would have taken.
Right now, Uggla has trade value, and the Giants are rumored to be interested. But the Marlins would be silly to make a deal like this right now. If Uggla is dealt to the Giants, the team would suffer even more offensively than they have right now, especially if the plan was to move Bonifacio to second base. Furthermore, while the Giants do have an excellent set of prospects, none of those guys will be coming over to the Marlins in a trade. The Giants have made it very clear they're shopping starter Jonathan Sanchez, not top-flight prospects such as Madison Baumgarner or Tim Alderson. Sanchez is 26 years old and has electric stuff, but has yet to put it all together. His walk rate has jumped so far this season, up to a ridiculous 6.71 BB/9. His other peripherals are steady from last year, but the walk rate has bumped his FIP to 4.62 on the year. Do we really need another Andrew Miller-type pitcher in Marlins' staff?
- The Marlins apparently rejected a straight-up trade of Cody Ross for Jeff Francoeur. With all of Francoeur's struggles this year, I can't say I disagree. But let's look at both players' production this year. Francoeur has been awful this year, posting a .250/.284/.345 line that is down a bit from last year. But looking at some of his other stats, he's not faltering any from his rookie campaign. His GB/FB ratio is hovering around 1, as it has throughout his career. His LD% is at 20.7%, right around his career totals. His walk rate has basically been the same terrible total it always was, while his K% has actually gone down, currently standing at a career low 14.7%. As a result, his contact rate is up, so while he's swinging at everything, he's certainly hitting more of it. You'd expect that with a LD% at 20% and a decent contact rate, he'd be doing OK, but he's been horrific. The BABIP may have something to do with it; it's the same as last year's, when he had his worst season yet. In that analysis, Francoeur looks like a guy who's run into some bad luck and has one major hole in his game (he can't draw walks). That's not bad, but given his slightly above average glove (last year could have been a bit of an aberration in the field), he certainly could still play.
Ross has been as good in the field, if not better than Francoeur recently, plus he gets a bonus for being a passable center fielder. But as far as a hitting profile, Ross probably profiles as what Francoeur likely would be, a power-hitting outfielder with a poor eye for the strike zone. Cody is swinging at about 27% of balls outside the strike zone, a value that is not as extreme but similar in profile to Francoeur's. Cody's actually made less contact than Francoeur and has been significantly luckier (.309 BABIP vs. Francoeur's .278). The difference between the two has been in the power numbers. Cody's ISO stands at a robust .212, while Frenchy has a Bonifacio-esque .095.
Frenchy needs time in the minors to rebuild his swing and confidence. He'll never walk a ton, but if he can get his BA back up in the .270 range, combine that with his solid glove, he could pass as a decent right fielder. As for now, that trade simply would not have worked. Why acquire a younger player (Francoeur is 25) whose ceiling is the guy you have now (Cody is 29)? It would only work if you thought Francoeur could be better in a few years than Cody, but because Frenchy will never develop plate discipline, Ross is pretty much his ceiling.
- Apparently Hanley Ramirez wasn't too happy about being hit by a pitch by Jays reliever Dirk Hayhurst yesterday, and wanted some retaliation as protection. Said Ramirez, in Spanish, "You know, incredible. There's going to come a point where I'm not going to feel protected. I'm going to be scared to hit a home run because I know I'm going to get hit."
I'm not a big fan of the barbarism that is throwing fastballs at other guys intentionally. I'm not exactly sure how that's supposed to help anyone. As a pitcher, you're giving up a base, and as a hitter, you're supposed to forget these sorts of things the next time you're up anyway. So you know I'm not a fan of how Hanley reacted to the situation here. But for him to say that he's going to be scared to hit a home run? Just because the other team is being moronic and childish doesn't the Marlins should follow suit. The way I see it, if he hits you, hit another home run. That should show them you're not afraid of the fastball.
- Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post blogs that Gaby Sanchez has moved to third base and might be on his way up to the big leagues. If so, this would be an obvious replacement for the struggling Emilio Bonifacio. I'm glad to see front office management (and this would be something the front office probably requested Triple-A New Orleans to do) is stepping up in trying to get a bat into third base. That being said, what Capozzi opens up afterwards was much more speculative and potentially devastating.
Capozzi mentions that Sanchez could take third base and move Bonifacio or Coghlan to their more naturla second base position, opening up Dan Uggla to be traded. The Marlins stand currently a game under .500 and, while it's still extremely early in the season, well within wild card reach, provided they start playing better. Of course, that sort of positioning doesn't imply that the Marlins won't make a move to help the team weather its limited finances as best it can. Uggla has been rumored to be involved in trade rumors ever since the team decided not to hand out a long-term deal to him after giving Hanley a six-year deal. This decision was absolutely correct; Uggla is 29 years old, is a below average defender at his current position, and figures to age in a not so graceful fashion. There was simply no reason to buy out any of his arbitration years for the likely $8 million a year it would have taken.
Right now, Uggla has trade value, and the Giants are rumored to be interested. But the Marlins would be silly to make a deal like this right now. If Uggla is dealt to the Giants, the team would suffer even more offensively than they have right now, especially if the plan was to move Bonifacio to second base. Furthermore, while the Giants do have an excellent set of prospects, none of those guys will be coming over to the Marlins in a trade. The Giants have made it very clear they're shopping starter Jonathan Sanchez, not top-flight prospects such as Madison Baumgarner or Tim Alderson. Sanchez is 26 years old and has electric stuff, but has yet to put it all together. His walk rate has jumped so far this season, up to a ridiculous 6.71 BB/9. His other peripherals are steady from last year, but the walk rate has bumped his FIP to 4.62 on the year. Do we really need another Andrew Miller-type pitcher in Marlins' staff?
- The Marlins apparently rejected a straight-up trade of Cody Ross for Jeff Francoeur. With all of Francoeur's struggles this year, I can't say I disagree. But let's look at both players' production this year. Francoeur has been awful this year, posting a .250/.284/.345 line that is down a bit from last year. But looking at some of his other stats, he's not faltering any from his rookie campaign. His GB/FB ratio is hovering around 1, as it has throughout his career. His LD% is at 20.7%, right around his career totals. His walk rate has basically been the same terrible total it always was, while his K% has actually gone down, currently standing at a career low 14.7%. As a result, his contact rate is up, so while he's swinging at everything, he's certainly hitting more of it. You'd expect that with a LD% at 20% and a decent contact rate, he'd be doing OK, but he's been horrific. The BABIP may have something to do with it; it's the same as last year's, when he had his worst season yet. In that analysis, Francoeur looks like a guy who's run into some bad luck and has one major hole in his game (he can't draw walks). That's not bad, but given his slightly above average glove (last year could have been a bit of an aberration in the field), he certainly could still play.
Ross has been as good in the field, if not better than Francoeur recently, plus he gets a bonus for being a passable center fielder. But as far as a hitting profile, Ross probably profiles as what Francoeur likely would be, a power-hitting outfielder with a poor eye for the strike zone. Cody is swinging at about 27% of balls outside the strike zone, a value that is not as extreme but similar in profile to Francoeur's. Cody's actually made less contact than Francoeur and has been significantly luckier (.309 BABIP vs. Francoeur's .278). The difference between the two has been in the power numbers. Cody's ISO stands at a robust .212, while Frenchy has a Bonifacio-esque .095.
Frenchy needs time in the minors to rebuild his swing and confidence. He'll never walk a ton, but if he can get his BA back up in the .270 range, combine that with his solid glove, he could pass as a decent right fielder. As for now, that trade simply would not have worked. Why acquire a younger player (Francoeur is 25) whose ceiling is the guy you have now (Cody is 29)? It would only work if you thought Francoeur could be better in a few years than Cody, but because Frenchy will never develop plate discipline, Ross is pretty much his ceiling.
Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton: Please update your stats!
This really isn't an embittered cry for just Mr. Waltz and Mr. Hutton, but rather for all sportscasters really. It's just that I hear Waltz and Hutton the most as I sit and watch Marlins games over telecasts by ESPN and Fox.
A couple of nights ago, on the first game of what would be a three-game sweep of the Jays, Tommy Hutton was mentioning that most Marlins fans probably don't know the Toronto players all that well. He mentioned in particular two guys at the top of the lineup, Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill, both having tremendous seasons at the plate. In talking about these two players, both Waltz and Hutton mentioned the ability for these guys to "set the table" and get on base for the heart of the lineup.
Key in on the words get on base here.
Those sound very familiar.
Those are the words in a particular stat.
Really now? Speak up, which statistic would this be?
Ahem, it's...
Ahem! That would be on-base percentage.
Marvelous, on-base percentage, or as it's often referred to, OBP. It's a measure of a player's ability not to make outs, more or less. It's the easiest measure for, well, the ability to get on base, that I know of. It's readily available and typically a part of every website's "numbers that quickly highlight a player's performance." You know, what the Triple Crown stats used to exclusively be.
In any case, Hutton mentions this, and following a graphic that shows that Scutaro leads all American League leadoff men in hits and walks, he references how Scutaro has a .300 batting average.
Here, the focus should be on the words hits and batting average.
But here's where perhaps I was most ticked. Scutaro walks and Hill steps to the plate, where Waltz and Hutton once again deservedly mention his excellent season so far. They again mention his on-base ability and go on to say that he is tied for the league lead in hits and is high on the list in batting average.
Again, hits and batting average.
Ahem...
Why is that, when we have a statistic that is a stand-in for a player's ability to get on base, a statistic which is named directly for such an ability, a readily available and totally transparent statistic, why do we still use batting average and counting stats to display on-base ability? Can someone mention to Waltz and Hutton that it's been six years since Moneyball was published, and OBP is mainstream? It took another 30-40 minutes before I saw anything in the way of on-base percentage showing up in the telecast of the game, and that was as a part of a "runners on vs. bases empty" split graphic, a situation where analyzing OBP is marginally important.
Look, I get that many viewers might not fully understand the non-Triple Crown stats, but I think it's about time someone indoctrinate them on OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS at least. I'm not clamoring for Hutton to quote WAR or even OPS+ values for every player; that type of work simply isn't feasible for a television sportscaster. An understanding of WAR on the side of the listener is necessary for you to even consider saying something remarkably radical-sounding such "Player X was worth about 3 wins last year." For a fan who knew nothing of things like Runs Created, Batting Runs Above Average, or wOBA, this "wins" concept attached to a player would make no sense. "How arbitrary, a win value for a player. Only pitchers get wins, and they're mentioned right there!" an unknowing fan would say.
Such statistics are problematic because they simply aren't transparent enough. Though most places that due to put WAR-like values up on their stat sheets for players do explain how they come to their conclusions, these sites are the farthest thing from the mind of a fan who only knows the Triple Crown stats. It takes knowledge of park factors and other statistics and factors not easily accessible to the average fan to measure even OPS+. We haven't even gone into the possibility of having to explain what replacement level means to the average baseball fan watching a broadcast; people get confused just reading it.
What I'm suggesting is simply putting a slash line, maybe OPS as well, on the graphics broadcasts show, alongside the traditional HR and RBI. I know no one will ever get rid of RBI's in the mainstream media. It's too ingrained in the minds of people who watch the game, even though the stat doesn't reveal anything about a player's true capability, and it's too important currently for fantasy baseball to take off the graphics and stop mentioning. But if the big scoreboards in parks now provide a player's slash lines, shouldn't TV broadcasts do the same? And shouldn't the broadcasters, one of whom (the color man) is supposed to be an expert on baseball, know enough about the statistics that are better performance indicators to make mention of said statistics more consistently?
This extends into defense as well. Waltz and Hutton had John Dewan over for an interview down in South Florida while he was pimping The Fielding Bible II. Of course, Dewan is the pioneer of +/-, which has proven to be a good defensive metric, on par with Mitchel Lichtman's UZR, which I reference here. While I certainly don't expect Waltz and Hutton to start rattling off +/- values for Marlins players, even if +/- is very intuitively easy to understand, I certainly expect them to stop utilizing inferior statistics such as errors and fielding percentage as a measure of excellent defense. Just recently, Waltz and Hutton were discussing the best defenses in the NL and AL, using fielding percentage to determine their answer. Now, the NL team was probably correct (the Phillies came out on top), but just because the results are right doesn't mean the methodology is wrong. Fielding percentage doesn't take range into account, but it's always quoted as gospel for defense, years after it's become a meaningless statistic.
This is more of a rant than an organized piece certainly. I can't help but get angry when I have to continuously hear that a player is having a great season because of his .300 batting average or his 100 RBI's. Please, free OPS from its bondage and let it loose upon the TV viewership. They'll get it, I swear.
A couple of nights ago, on the first game of what would be a three-game sweep of the Jays, Tommy Hutton was mentioning that most Marlins fans probably don't know the Toronto players all that well. He mentioned in particular two guys at the top of the lineup, Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill, both having tremendous seasons at the plate. In talking about these two players, both Waltz and Hutton mentioned the ability for these guys to "set the table" and get on base for the heart of the lineup.
Key in on the words get on base here.
Those sound very familiar.
Those are the words in a particular stat.
Really now? Speak up, which statistic would this be?
Ahem, it's...
Ahem! That would be on-base percentage.
Marvelous, on-base percentage, or as it's often referred to, OBP. It's a measure of a player's ability not to make outs, more or less. It's the easiest measure for, well, the ability to get on base, that I know of. It's readily available and typically a part of every website's "numbers that quickly highlight a player's performance." You know, what the Triple Crown stats used to exclusively be.
In any case, Hutton mentions this, and following a graphic that shows that Scutaro leads all American League leadoff men in hits and walks, he references how Scutaro has a .300 batting average.
Here, the focus should be on the words hits and batting average.
But here's where perhaps I was most ticked. Scutaro walks and Hill steps to the plate, where Waltz and Hutton once again deservedly mention his excellent season so far. They again mention his on-base ability and go on to say that he is tied for the league lead in hits and is high on the list in batting average.
Again, hits and batting average.
Ahem...
Why is that, when we have a statistic that is a stand-in for a player's ability to get on base, a statistic which is named directly for such an ability, a readily available and totally transparent statistic, why do we still use batting average and counting stats to display on-base ability? Can someone mention to Waltz and Hutton that it's been six years since Moneyball was published, and OBP is mainstream? It took another 30-40 minutes before I saw anything in the way of on-base percentage showing up in the telecast of the game, and that was as a part of a "runners on vs. bases empty" split graphic, a situation where analyzing OBP is marginally important.
Look, I get that many viewers might not fully understand the non-Triple Crown stats, but I think it's about time someone indoctrinate them on OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS at least. I'm not clamoring for Hutton to quote WAR or even OPS+ values for every player; that type of work simply isn't feasible for a television sportscaster. An understanding of WAR on the side of the listener is necessary for you to even consider saying something remarkably radical-sounding such "Player X was worth about 3 wins last year." For a fan who knew nothing of things like Runs Created, Batting Runs Above Average, or wOBA, this "wins" concept attached to a player would make no sense. "How arbitrary, a win value for a player. Only pitchers get wins, and they're mentioned right there!" an unknowing fan would say.
Such statistics are problematic because they simply aren't transparent enough. Though most places that due to put WAR-like values up on their stat sheets for players do explain how they come to their conclusions, these sites are the farthest thing from the mind of a fan who only knows the Triple Crown stats. It takes knowledge of park factors and other statistics and factors not easily accessible to the average fan to measure even OPS+. We haven't even gone into the possibility of having to explain what replacement level means to the average baseball fan watching a broadcast; people get confused just reading it.
What I'm suggesting is simply putting a slash line, maybe OPS as well, on the graphics broadcasts show, alongside the traditional HR and RBI. I know no one will ever get rid of RBI's in the mainstream media. It's too ingrained in the minds of people who watch the game, even though the stat doesn't reveal anything about a player's true capability, and it's too important currently for fantasy baseball to take off the graphics and stop mentioning. But if the big scoreboards in parks now provide a player's slash lines, shouldn't TV broadcasts do the same? And shouldn't the broadcasters, one of whom (the color man) is supposed to be an expert on baseball, know enough about the statistics that are better performance indicators to make mention of said statistics more consistently?
This extends into defense as well. Waltz and Hutton had John Dewan over for an interview down in South Florida while he was pimping The Fielding Bible II. Of course, Dewan is the pioneer of +/-, which has proven to be a good defensive metric, on par with Mitchel Lichtman's UZR, which I reference here. While I certainly don't expect Waltz and Hutton to start rattling off +/- values for Marlins players, even if +/- is very intuitively easy to understand, I certainly expect them to stop utilizing inferior statistics such as errors and fielding percentage as a measure of excellent defense. Just recently, Waltz and Hutton were discussing the best defenses in the NL and AL, using fielding percentage to determine their answer. Now, the NL team was probably correct (the Phillies came out on top), but just because the results are right doesn't mean the methodology is wrong. Fielding percentage doesn't take range into account, but it's always quoted as gospel for defense, years after it's become a meaningless statistic.
This is more of a rant than an organized piece certainly. I can't help but get angry when I have to continuously hear that a player is having a great season because of his .300 batting average or his 100 RBI's. Please, free OPS from its bondage and let it loose upon the TV viewership. They'll get it, I swear.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Blogservations 06/14/09, Marlins 11, Blue Jays 3
The Marlins finish off a three-game sweep of the Jays in impressive fashion with an 11-3 win. Here are some of my thoughts on the performance.
Josh Johnson is going through the motions of becoming a true staff ace.
Today JJ did not necessarily have his best stuff, but the one number that did impress me the most was this: nine innings pitched. The complete game was JJ's second of the season, continuing a string of games where he has gone deep into games; this was his fifth straight start going seven or more innings. A sign of a true staff "ace," a term often thrown around and rarely truly applicable, is a guy who can pitch workhorse innings (that is, a lot of innings consistently) and pitch well in those increased innings. Johnson already has the filthy stuff to carry him to the top of any rotation, so it's good, especially being a recovering Tommy John surgery guy, to see him rack up the innings so smoothly.
Now, not all was rainbows and sunshine. His peripherals were not all that sharp today, with only six strikeouts to three walks. That's still a 2-to-1 K/BB ratio, a good ratio, but not great. More importantly, earlier in the week, after JJ spun an excellent game against the Cardinals, I mentioned that his HR/FB ratio was 2-3% lower than his career norms, and that as a result he had perhaps a deflated HR/9. Well, regression started hitting stride today, as the only runs Johnson allowed came off back-to-back home runs by Alex Rios and Kevin Millar. This isn't to say that Johnson will be handing out long balls like I dish out unsuccessful date requests to girls around the University, but we should expect some regression in his numbers and a subsequent rise in ERA and FIP. Not to worry everyone, he's still the best young starter we've got and, if the Marlins front office agrees, hopefully an Opening Day starter for years to come.
Fredi still doesn't know what on-base percentage means.
This has been ticking me off all year obviously, but it showed again when Fredi Gonzalez penciled in Emilio Bonifacio at the 2-hole again after two straight games with Ross Gload batting in that spot. Even if one were to consider what a "classic" #2 hitter is supposed to do, i.e. work pitch counts, hit for contact, bunt runners over, hit and run, all that "small ball" baseball that managers and broadcasters like to talk about but actually is only marginally useful because it often involves giving up outs, Bonifacio has to be the last guy to do this. When you have an extra hitter available, why not just shift your worst hitter to ninth in the order? You don't even have to worry about the pitcher's spot afterwards, you just line up your order from better/best hitters to worst hitter. I'm still confounded.
Josh Johnson is going through the motions of becoming a true staff ace.
Today JJ did not necessarily have his best stuff, but the one number that did impress me the most was this: nine innings pitched. The complete game was JJ's second of the season, continuing a string of games where he has gone deep into games; this was his fifth straight start going seven or more innings. A sign of a true staff "ace," a term often thrown around and rarely truly applicable, is a guy who can pitch workhorse innings (that is, a lot of innings consistently) and pitch well in those increased innings. Johnson already has the filthy stuff to carry him to the top of any rotation, so it's good, especially being a recovering Tommy John surgery guy, to see him rack up the innings so smoothly.
Now, not all was rainbows and sunshine. His peripherals were not all that sharp today, with only six strikeouts to three walks. That's still a 2-to-1 K/BB ratio, a good ratio, but not great. More importantly, earlier in the week, after JJ spun an excellent game against the Cardinals, I mentioned that his HR/FB ratio was 2-3% lower than his career norms, and that as a result he had perhaps a deflated HR/9. Well, regression started hitting stride today, as the only runs Johnson allowed came off back-to-back home runs by Alex Rios and Kevin Millar. This isn't to say that Johnson will be handing out long balls like I dish out unsuccessful date requests to girls around the University, but we should expect some regression in his numbers and a subsequent rise in ERA and FIP. Not to worry everyone, he's still the best young starter we've got and, if the Marlins front office agrees, hopefully an Opening Day starter for years to come.
Fredi still doesn't know what on-base percentage means.
This has been ticking me off all year obviously, but it showed again when Fredi Gonzalez penciled in Emilio Bonifacio at the 2-hole again after two straight games with Ross Gload batting in that spot. Even if one were to consider what a "classic" #2 hitter is supposed to do, i.e. work pitch counts, hit for contact, bunt runners over, hit and run, all that "small ball" baseball that managers and broadcasters like to talk about but actually is only marginally useful because it often involves giving up outs, Bonifacio has to be the last guy to do this. When you have an extra hitter available, why not just shift your worst hitter to ninth in the order? You don't even have to worry about the pitcher's spot afterwards, you just line up your order from better/best hitters to worst hitter. I'm still confounded.
The BoniLine, 06/14/09
A convincing 11-3 Marlins win, and the BoniLine is proud to present a decent performance by Emilio Bonifacio!
Emilio Bonifacio: 6 PA, 2 H, 1 RBI, 2 K, WPA: .038
Best Performer
Ronny Paulino: 5 PA, 4 H, 2 1B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, WPA: .192
Paulino continues to swing a hot bat against lefties. Meanwhile, Bonifacio ends up third on the team in WPA, carried by an early game RBI to keep an inning alive, followed by the Marlins taking a huge lead and running low leverage situations the rest of the way. In reality, Bonifacio's day had very little true difference to Dan Uggla's day at the plate, and more players certainly impressed me over Boni. Still, not a bad game. I'd like to see some more line drives off of his bat, but a couple of ground ball singles is a decent start.
Emilio Bonifacio: 6 PA, 2 H, 1 RBI, 2 K, WPA: .038
Best Performer
Ronny Paulino: 5 PA, 4 H, 2 1B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, WPA: .192
Paulino continues to swing a hot bat against lefties. Meanwhile, Bonifacio ends up third on the team in WPA, carried by an early game RBI to keep an inning alive, followed by the Marlins taking a huge lead and running low leverage situations the rest of the way. In reality, Bonifacio's day had very little true difference to Dan Uggla's day at the plate, and more players certainly impressed me over Boni. Still, not a bad game. I'd like to see some more line drives off of his bat, but a couple of ground ball singles is a decent start.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Blogservations 06/13/09, Marlins 6, Blue Jays 5
No BoniLine today, as Fredi gave him the day off in favor of Wes Helms. Still, a tight but very well-deserved victory for the Marlins over a good Jays team. Here are some of my thoughts on the game.
Sean West followed his masterpiece with a clunker.
Here's another solid reason why wins don't tell you anything. It was pretty visible to everyone there that Sean West could be beat out there, but the Jays were simply unable to get to him. In 5 2/3 innings, West walked four while striking out none and gave up two two-run homers in the process. His pitches, as one would expect in an outing like this, were not sharp. Watching him throughout, his velocity was way down, with his fastball sitting 87-89 MPH, only occasionally touching 90 MPH and going no higher. Color commentator Tommy Hutton mentioned that the Rogers Center radar gun looked a little slow, as evidenced by the uncharacteristic speeds for West and Leo Nunez. Still, West's fastball looked slow today, and he wasn't placing it anywhere effectively. The two home runs he allowed were big mistake pitches over the plate, and much of the time he spent either digging pitches into the dirt or missing in the strike zone. The Marlins should be considered lucky to get away with a win backed by a performance like this one.
The Marlins outfielders are locked in at the plate.
Last night Chris Coghlan put up a 4-for-5 line. Though he followed up last night with only one double today, the other two Marlins outfielders picked up the slack. Jeremy Hermida went 2-for-4 and Cody Ross went 3-for-4, and each of them smacked a two-run homer to produce the majority of the Fish's runs. Closing in on the midway mark for June, Hermida has posted an impressive .342/.432/.526 line for the month, good for a .410 wOBA. The most encouraging sign perhaps is the increased power; for the month Hermida has posted a .184 ISO, and in his last six games, he's knocked a double and three home runs. Not to be outdone, Cody Ross has put up a .275/.326/.475 line for the month and has powered the Marlins recently with two home runs and two doubles in the series, one of the doubles today coming off the top of the wall and looking conspicuously like a home run on video replay.
Combine the recent hot streaks with Coghlan's solid month and increasing power numbers and Ross Gload's quietly good season at the plate, and the Marlins suddenly have a bounty of useful offensive players who can play the outfield. I think Fredi should consider a lineup where Coghlan is moved to third base and Gload gets extra playing time in right field, even though his defense there is lacking. This would get the best bats in the lineup, even if it is only for one or two games a week versus right handers. It definitely seems like something to consider.
The bullpen looked spectacular.
A few games ago the pen struggled and Leo Nunez in particular surrendered the game winning run to St. Louis. Today the runs were allowed by West, but the pen came out and shut the door after an unearned made it a 6-5 game. Leo Nunez pitched an excellent 1 1/3 innings, striking out two in some very high leverage situations. Dan Meyer came in before him and knocked out Adam Lind in one of the tightest spots in the game, with runners on first and second with one out in the seventh inning and the Jays already with a run home. Finally, Matt Lindstrom gave up a leadoff hit but had no problems finishing off the top of the Jays order, thanks in some part to Marco Scutaro giving himself up for the sacrifice bunt. Lindstrom collected two easy outs in the highest leverage situations in the game, closing the door with a Vernon Wells strikeout.
The bullpen has had its ups and downs so far this year, trending down right now perhaps due to overwork, a situation that happened last year as well after the first half. Lindstrom has been wild all season long, and it has been torture to watch. But today Nunez and Lindstrom looked great and sealed a tough game for the Marlins. Hopefully this is a harbinger of things to come.
Sean West followed his masterpiece with a clunker.
Here's another solid reason why wins don't tell you anything. It was pretty visible to everyone there that Sean West could be beat out there, but the Jays were simply unable to get to him. In 5 2/3 innings, West walked four while striking out none and gave up two two-run homers in the process. His pitches, as one would expect in an outing like this, were not sharp. Watching him throughout, his velocity was way down, with his fastball sitting 87-89 MPH, only occasionally touching 90 MPH and going no higher. Color commentator Tommy Hutton mentioned that the Rogers Center radar gun looked a little slow, as evidenced by the uncharacteristic speeds for West and Leo Nunez. Still, West's fastball looked slow today, and he wasn't placing it anywhere effectively. The two home runs he allowed were big mistake pitches over the plate, and much of the time he spent either digging pitches into the dirt or missing in the strike zone. The Marlins should be considered lucky to get away with a win backed by a performance like this one.
The Marlins outfielders are locked in at the plate.
Last night Chris Coghlan put up a 4-for-5 line. Though he followed up last night with only one double today, the other two Marlins outfielders picked up the slack. Jeremy Hermida went 2-for-4 and Cody Ross went 3-for-4, and each of them smacked a two-run homer to produce the majority of the Fish's runs. Closing in on the midway mark for June, Hermida has posted an impressive .342/.432/.526 line for the month, good for a .410 wOBA. The most encouraging sign perhaps is the increased power; for the month Hermida has posted a .184 ISO, and in his last six games, he's knocked a double and three home runs. Not to be outdone, Cody Ross has put up a .275/.326/.475 line for the month and has powered the Marlins recently with two home runs and two doubles in the series, one of the doubles today coming off the top of the wall and looking conspicuously like a home run on video replay.
Combine the recent hot streaks with Coghlan's solid month and increasing power numbers and Ross Gload's quietly good season at the plate, and the Marlins suddenly have a bounty of useful offensive players who can play the outfield. I think Fredi should consider a lineup where Coghlan is moved to third base and Gload gets extra playing time in right field, even though his defense there is lacking. This would get the best bats in the lineup, even if it is only for one or two games a week versus right handers. It definitely seems like something to consider.
The bullpen looked spectacular.
A few games ago the pen struggled and Leo Nunez in particular surrendered the game winning run to St. Louis. Today the runs were allowed by West, but the pen came out and shut the door after an unearned made it a 6-5 game. Leo Nunez pitched an excellent 1 1/3 innings, striking out two in some very high leverage situations. Dan Meyer came in before him and knocked out Adam Lind in one of the tightest spots in the game, with runners on first and second with one out in the seventh inning and the Jays already with a run home. Finally, Matt Lindstrom gave up a leadoff hit but had no problems finishing off the top of the Jays order, thanks in some part to Marco Scutaro giving himself up for the sacrifice bunt. Lindstrom collected two easy outs in the highest leverage situations in the game, closing the door with a Vernon Wells strikeout.
The bullpen has had its ups and downs so far this year, trending down right now perhaps due to overwork, a situation that happened last year as well after the first half. Lindstrom has been wild all season long, and it has been torture to watch. But today Nunez and Lindstrom looked great and sealed a tough game for the Marlins. Hopefully this is a harbinger of things to come.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Blogservations 06/12/09, Marlins 7, Blue Jays 3
No Blogservations on the Cardinal's 6-5 comeback win over the Marlins, as I didn't catch any of it and saw very little in the way of signs. The only thing I can say is that Leo Nunez's poor peripherals are starting to catch up to him. He throws it well, but he walks too many guys to be effective. Also, he's literally missing bats like he hasn't done before (a 71.6% contact rate, down from the low 80's he's put up most of his career), and combining that with the very low .246 BABIP, I'd say his season so far has been more than a bit fluky, and now he's beginning to regress to what he actually is.
Let's move on to this game.
Ricky Nolasco looked like his old self.
This start was more indicative of the old Nolasco of last year than any of his previous starts. Maybe the Triple-A demotion worked and he got his act together, though it was doubtful his act was off to begin with. Before the demotion, his K/9 had increased from last year, though it's come with an increase in BB/9 as well. Today Nolasco posted an impressive nine strikeouts against only one walk. Had he scattered those five hits and walk a bit more, it's likely he would not have allowed much in the way of runs; that being said, a big issue Nolasco had been facing was the big inning. Outside of the fifth inning last night, the outing was very encouraging.
Nolasco's biggest problem is likely the .399 BABIP he's posted so far, which screams "regression to the mean." Still, a 24% LD% shows he's being hit harder this season, which hopefully is not a trend. Nolasco's working well, showing numbers very similar, if not better, than those of last year. The final resutls are finally starting to catch up.
The Marlins finally came up big in the clutch.
The high leverage plays finally started to go the Marlins' way. With the exception of Jorge Cantu's bases loaded ground out in the third inning, the Fish were able to deliver the big hits color commentator Tommy Hutton keeps clamoring for. It started with Hanley Ramirez's single in the seventh (a 3.58 Leverage Index) and culminated of course in the Cody Ross grand slam with the bases juiced (ironically only a 3.10 Leverage Index). I brought up the team's performance on plate appearances with a Leverage Index (LI) greater 2 in a previous game. Tonight, the club delivered in a big way, going 2 for 3 in 5 PA with LI over 2, with a Dan Uggla walk and a John Baker HBP as well. All in all, the team totaled a 0.391 WPA in those PA's, a rare "clutch" performance by the team.
Chris Coghlan is looking like a true leadoff man.
Fredi Gonzalez wisened up for last night's AL home game and batted Emilio Bonifacio, the team's worst hitter, in the characteristic ninth spot. While he struggled to an uneventful 0 for 4 night, the team's new leadoff hitter Chris Coghlan flourished, going 4 for 5 with 3 singles and a double. He also stole a base and scored twice, thanks to Hanley Ramirez's solid game. It was good to see Coghlan set the table against Toronto, a team that has an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup in Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. The Marlins' table-setting duo of Coghlan and Ross Gload combined for seven hits and two doubles in 10 PA, compiling a WPA of 0.171. If the team could get half that production from its leadoff and #2 hitters everyday, our offense would be much improved.
With Coghlan's ability to draw walks, he seems like a natural fit at the top of the order. Add to that his speed potential on the basepaths and the Fish have likely stumbled on a good choice for leadoff. As for the #2 guy, once the club starts playing NL teams again, it won't have the luxury of playing Gload at first base and having Cantu DH. Knowing that you're looking for OBP in your top of the lineup guys, as they get the most PA's and as a result should be the ones who use their opportunities most efficiently, the team should allow Jeremy Hermida to bat in the 2-hole again. He did this for much of the season last year before John Baker got the nod near the end of the season, but previously didn't deserve to be taking up that high slot due to an eroding OBP. Now his OBP stands at a robust .374, a number that would certainly hold up for a #2 hitter.
The other option the team should consider is another man who used to hit #2 for the club, Dan Uggla. Uggla hit in the 2-hole most of 2006, but was moved down in the order as a result of his power. At the time he also hadn't reached base at the clip he is now, and for the last two years he's shown dramatic improvement in his walks and OBP. In addition, Uggla has had a difficult time getting pitches to hit; a mere 47.1% of the pitches he's seen have been in the strikezone. Dave Cameron posted an interesting piece regarding a new strategy for #2 hitters, mostly putting players who are better fastball hitters but don't see fastballs normally into the 2-hole. If this strategy provided any sort of bonus benefit in addition to having Uggla's increasing plate selectivity, it might be worth a try.
Let's move on to this game.
Ricky Nolasco looked like his old self.
This start was more indicative of the old Nolasco of last year than any of his previous starts. Maybe the Triple-A demotion worked and he got his act together, though it was doubtful his act was off to begin with. Before the demotion, his K/9 had increased from last year, though it's come with an increase in BB/9 as well. Today Nolasco posted an impressive nine strikeouts against only one walk. Had he scattered those five hits and walk a bit more, it's likely he would not have allowed much in the way of runs; that being said, a big issue Nolasco had been facing was the big inning. Outside of the fifth inning last night, the outing was very encouraging.
Nolasco's biggest problem is likely the .399 BABIP he's posted so far, which screams "regression to the mean." Still, a 24% LD% shows he's being hit harder this season, which hopefully is not a trend. Nolasco's working well, showing numbers very similar, if not better, than those of last year. The final resutls are finally starting to catch up.
The Marlins finally came up big in the clutch.
The high leverage plays finally started to go the Marlins' way. With the exception of Jorge Cantu's bases loaded ground out in the third inning, the Fish were able to deliver the big hits color commentator Tommy Hutton keeps clamoring for. It started with Hanley Ramirez's single in the seventh (a 3.58 Leverage Index) and culminated of course in the Cody Ross grand slam with the bases juiced (ironically only a 3.10 Leverage Index). I brought up the team's performance on plate appearances with a Leverage Index (LI) greater 2 in a previous game. Tonight, the club delivered in a big way, going 2 for 3 in 5 PA with LI over 2, with a Dan Uggla walk and a John Baker HBP as well. All in all, the team totaled a 0.391 WPA in those PA's, a rare "clutch" performance by the team.
Chris Coghlan is looking like a true leadoff man.
Fredi Gonzalez wisened up for last night's AL home game and batted Emilio Bonifacio, the team's worst hitter, in the characteristic ninth spot. While he struggled to an uneventful 0 for 4 night, the team's new leadoff hitter Chris Coghlan flourished, going 4 for 5 with 3 singles and a double. He also stole a base and scored twice, thanks to Hanley Ramirez's solid game. It was good to see Coghlan set the table against Toronto, a team that has an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup in Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. The Marlins' table-setting duo of Coghlan and Ross Gload combined for seven hits and two doubles in 10 PA, compiling a WPA of 0.171. If the team could get half that production from its leadoff and #2 hitters everyday, our offense would be much improved.
With Coghlan's ability to draw walks, he seems like a natural fit at the top of the order. Add to that his speed potential on the basepaths and the Fish have likely stumbled on a good choice for leadoff. As for the #2 guy, once the club starts playing NL teams again, it won't have the luxury of playing Gload at first base and having Cantu DH. Knowing that you're looking for OBP in your top of the lineup guys, as they get the most PA's and as a result should be the ones who use their opportunities most efficiently, the team should allow Jeremy Hermida to bat in the 2-hole again. He did this for much of the season last year before John Baker got the nod near the end of the season, but previously didn't deserve to be taking up that high slot due to an eroding OBP. Now his OBP stands at a robust .374, a number that would certainly hold up for a #2 hitter.
The other option the team should consider is another man who used to hit #2 for the club, Dan Uggla. Uggla hit in the 2-hole most of 2006, but was moved down in the order as a result of his power. At the time he also hadn't reached base at the clip he is now, and for the last two years he's shown dramatic improvement in his walks and OBP. In addition, Uggla has had a difficult time getting pitches to hit; a mere 47.1% of the pitches he's seen have been in the strikezone. Dave Cameron posted an interesting piece regarding a new strategy for #2 hitters, mostly putting players who are better fastball hitters but don't see fastballs normally into the 2-hole. If this strategy provided any sort of bonus benefit in addition to having Uggla's increasing plate selectivity, it might be worth a try.
The BoniLine, 06/12/2009
A quick BoniLine for tonight's excellent 7-3 win.
Emilio Bonifacio: 4 PA, 0 H, WPA: -.076
Best Performer:
Hanley Ramirez: 5 PA, 3 H, 3 1B, 1 SF, 3 RBI, WPA: .195
Granted, Bonifacio's line was uneventfully bad, as he had a low leverage index (0.75), bogged down by the extremely low leverage PA after Cody Ross's grand slam. Still, very characteristic of Bonifacio: 4 PA, 2 groundouts, 2 bunting outs, on bad bunts at that. The BoniLine trudges along...
Emilio Bonifacio: 4 PA, 0 H, WPA: -.076
Best Performer:
Hanley Ramirez: 5 PA, 3 H, 3 1B, 1 SF, 3 RBI, WPA: .195
Granted, Bonifacio's line was uneventfully bad, as he had a low leverage index (0.75), bogged down by the extremely low leverage PA after Cody Ross's grand slam. Still, very characteristic of Bonifacio: 4 PA, 2 groundouts, 2 bunting outs, on bad bunts at that. The BoniLine trudges along...
Fish Bites, 06/12/2009
I'll be attempting to put up a regular news and notes column highlighting the day's Florida Marlins news, along with any other interesting tidbits around Major League Baseball. Let's dive into today's links.
- MLB.com reports that manager Fredi Gonzalez expects it will be another three or four days until Anibal Sanchez can start throwing, meaning there's no chance he'll be available to pitch when he's first eligible to come off the DL June 18. With Sean West's last gem and how the rest of staff has performed admirably, I don't think we'll miss Sanchez and his current 5.22 FIP. I don't doubt some of that was his shoulder, but he'd been pitching poorly before his last DL stint and all the way back into when he first came back midseason last year. Maybe something's still wrong with him, a Triple-A stint or extended rehab session in the minors may be in the works.
- Speaking of the rotation, Dave Hyde of the Sun-Sentinel has not given up on the Marlins' season yet, and it's because the young starters are starting to get it. I'm just as much of a fan of our young staff, but there is work to be done. It's been noted that the Marlins' starters have increased their K/9 and decreased their BB/9, typically a great sign, but when two of your three main cogs are giving around 1.5 HR/9, it's going to be tough to win back this season. I love how Miller has been playing as of late, and if he can keep his walks down, he'll be a mainstay. Chris Volstad's HR/FB is likely fluky and should come down, but Ricky Nolasco's HR/FB has remained around his career totals, with his HR/9 up 0.2. I'm certain that if he can get that value down, his numbers will look more like those of last year, but it remains to be seen. I'm still optimistic.
- The Palm Beach Post wraps up the Marlins' draft, noting that half of the team's selections were pitchers. No real surprises here, folks. Larry Beinfest and company run this organization excellently, and if there's one thing we've learned about their style, which has seemed to work well so far, is that they stock up on pitching, especially high school arms ala Chris Volstad. Here's hoping that Chad James kid can bring it, along with the rest of the team's new arms.
- MLB.com also has a random piece on the fastest player in baseball. Lot's of typical names, no surprises here. Marlins third base coach Bo Porter went with the homer pick of Emilio Bonifacio, though I can't imagine he'd know that well since Bonifacio is hardly on base. Similarly, Braves catcher Brian McCann chose Michael Bourn and Willy Taveras, two guys who would be somewhat lucky to have an OBP above .310. In all honesty, I'm really tired of the fast leadoff man ideal. Can we find guys like Taveras or Joey Gathright that can actually get on base? Seems like every speedster has a horrendous bat and, even if they could draw walks, pitchers just pound the strike zone and dare them to hit more than a weak grounder up the middle. Jose Reyes, please lead the way.
- I actually almost forgot this one. Witness Kansas City vs. Cleveland last night, and in particular the highlights of the game winning hit by Mark DeRosa. That bird cannot be feeling well this morning.
- MLB.com reports that manager Fredi Gonzalez expects it will be another three or four days until Anibal Sanchez can start throwing, meaning there's no chance he'll be available to pitch when he's first eligible to come off the DL June 18. With Sean West's last gem and how the rest of staff has performed admirably, I don't think we'll miss Sanchez and his current 5.22 FIP. I don't doubt some of that was his shoulder, but he'd been pitching poorly before his last DL stint and all the way back into when he first came back midseason last year. Maybe something's still wrong with him, a Triple-A stint or extended rehab session in the minors may be in the works.
- Speaking of the rotation, Dave Hyde of the Sun-Sentinel has not given up on the Marlins' season yet, and it's because the young starters are starting to get it. I'm just as much of a fan of our young staff, but there is work to be done. It's been noted that the Marlins' starters have increased their K/9 and decreased their BB/9, typically a great sign, but when two of your three main cogs are giving around 1.5 HR/9, it's going to be tough to win back this season. I love how Miller has been playing as of late, and if he can keep his walks down, he'll be a mainstay. Chris Volstad's HR/FB is likely fluky and should come down, but Ricky Nolasco's HR/FB has remained around his career totals, with his HR/9 up 0.2. I'm certain that if he can get that value down, his numbers will look more like those of last year, but it remains to be seen. I'm still optimistic.
- The Palm Beach Post wraps up the Marlins' draft, noting that half of the team's selections were pitchers. No real surprises here, folks. Larry Beinfest and company run this organization excellently, and if there's one thing we've learned about their style, which has seemed to work well so far, is that they stock up on pitching, especially high school arms ala Chris Volstad. Here's hoping that Chad James kid can bring it, along with the rest of the team's new arms.
- MLB.com also has a random piece on the fastest player in baseball. Lot's of typical names, no surprises here. Marlins third base coach Bo Porter went with the homer pick of Emilio Bonifacio, though I can't imagine he'd know that well since Bonifacio is hardly on base. Similarly, Braves catcher Brian McCann chose Michael Bourn and Willy Taveras, two guys who would be somewhat lucky to have an OBP above .310. In all honesty, I'm really tired of the fast leadoff man ideal. Can we find guys like Taveras or Joey Gathright that can actually get on base? Seems like every speedster has a horrendous bat and, even if they could draw walks, pitchers just pound the strike zone and dare them to hit more than a weak grounder up the middle. Jose Reyes, please lead the way.
- I actually almost forgot this one. Witness Kansas City vs. Cleveland last night, and in particular the highlights of the game winning hit by Mark DeRosa. That bird cannot be feeling well this morning.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
The BoniLine, 06/11/2009
The BoniLine is a new daily containing some of the highlights of Emilio Bonifacio's stat lines from the last game. As a comparison point, I'll be placing alongside Bonifacio's line the line of the best offensive performer for the Marlins for that game according to Win Probability Added (WPA). This will go on until Fredi Gonzalez tones down Bonifacio's playing time significantly (ie. bench him!)
06/11/2009: Cardinals 6, Marlins 5
Emilio Bonifacio: 5 PA, 1H, 1 1B, 1 R, WPA: -.176
Best Perfomer:
Ross Gload: 4 PA, 3 H, 1B, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, WPA: .281
I'm sure there will be days where the BoniLine and the BestLine are the same. With the consistency that Fredi is playing Bonifacio, I sure hope it'll happen often.
06/11/2009: Cardinals 6, Marlins 5
Emilio Bonifacio: 5 PA, 1H, 1 1B, 1 R, WPA: -.176
Best Perfomer:
Ross Gload: 4 PA, 3 H, 1B, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, WPA: .281
I'm sure there will be days where the BoniLine and the BestLine are the same. With the consistency that Fredi is playing Bonifacio, I sure hope it'll happen often.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Blogservations 06/10/09, Cardinals 13, Marlins 4
Sat and watched through much of this game, though I missed the debacle that was the eighth inning and on for somewhat important reasons. Still, here's some of my take on tonight's game.
Chris Volstad has a serious case of homeritis.
It's spread all over his pitching game. On the box score it says he only gave up one long ball, a three-run shot in the first inning to Colby Rasmus. But watching the game, he gave up another long fly ball to Yadier Molina that would've been a home run in almost any other park, but thanks to the "Teal Monster" out in left and Molina going into a bit of a home run trot, it was reduced to a long fly ball single. In my view, Volstad pretty much gave up two more jacks tonight, and in reality it's been a season-long trend.
This year, Volstad has improved on two of three of his peripheral stats, the true outcome ratios. His K/9 has jumped up to 7.18 from 5.55 last year, and his BB/9 has dropped to 2.68 from 3.84. The primary reason Volstad was able to post a 2.88 ERA last year was a microscopic home run rate; he only allowed two home runs in 84 1/3 innings last year, good for a paltry 3.9% HR/FB ratio. This year, that's been a completely different story. Including tonight, he has allowed 13 home runs, inflating his HR/FB to an absurd 17.4%. His true value is likely somewhere in between those two extremes, and once he regresses we'll see an ERA hovering in the high 3's (this assumes a regression in the K% as well, as I don't think he's ready to strike out major leaguers at that sort of pace just yet). Still, it's an alarming trend, and Volstad needs to help out by doing what he's supposed to be able to do best, keep the ball down and get it on the ground.
Chris Volstad has a serious case of homeritis.
It's spread all over his pitching game. On the box score it says he only gave up one long ball, a three-run shot in the first inning to Colby Rasmus. But watching the game, he gave up another long fly ball to Yadier Molina that would've been a home run in almost any other park, but thanks to the "Teal Monster" out in left and Molina going into a bit of a home run trot, it was reduced to a long fly ball single. In my view, Volstad pretty much gave up two more jacks tonight, and in reality it's been a season-long trend.
This year, Volstad has improved on two of three of his peripheral stats, the true outcome ratios. His K/9 has jumped up to 7.18 from 5.55 last year, and his BB/9 has dropped to 2.68 from 3.84. The primary reason Volstad was able to post a 2.88 ERA last year was a microscopic home run rate; he only allowed two home runs in 84 1/3 innings last year, good for a paltry 3.9% HR/FB ratio. This year, that's been a completely different story. Including tonight, he has allowed 13 home runs, inflating his HR/FB to an absurd 17.4%. His true value is likely somewhere in between those two extremes, and once he regresses we'll see an ERA hovering in the high 3's (this assumes a regression in the K% as well, as I don't think he's ready to strike out major leaguers at that sort of pace just yet). Still, it's an alarming trend, and Volstad needs to help out by doing what he's supposed to be able to do best, keep the ball down and get it on the ground.
Who is Jeremy Hermida?
In 2007, Jeremy Hermida put up a .296/.369/.501 slash line at the tender age of 23. In 484 plate appearances, he posted a .372 wOBA which was good for 2.7 wins above replacement. This season seemed like it was the beginning of a bright future projected by the likes Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus during Hermida's minor league career. However, a look at his BABIP compared to a crude projection using his LD% showed a value that might have suggested a bit of luck.
Sure enough, regression set in a big way the following year, to the tune of a .249/.323/.406 line and a .321 wOBA. His K% stayed as high as ever while his walk rate dropped another 1%. As Dave Golebiewski of FanGraphs noted in November of 2008, his swinging had gotten a lot less disciplined as well.
All in all, it had appeared Hermida had regressed as far as possible from his initially grand projections. So who really is the true Jeremy Hermida?
His minor league numbers were good, but not great, with a career slash line of .284/.398/.436. A minor league career ISO of .152 is nothing to be proud of, even if you were finishing your minor league run at age 21. So far, Hermida has shown no sign of increasing his power, culminating in this season's so-far horrific .126. That's not a power number you expect or want to see in a corner outfielder, especially one with the glove that Hermida carries (a career UZR of -23.8 in 3000 innings in right field).
Still, the minor league performance should have projected some sort of patience, capability to take walks. But before this season he had not hit above 10% BB% in any of his three seasons. Combine that with increasing K% and you get a player who makes far too many outs, struggles to make contact, and already was known as someone who hadn't developed major league power. Yet his LD% have remained fairly constant through his first three seasons at 20%. His dip last year to 17.7% could have made for some of the batting average fall, but the lack of power was troubling for a player who wasn't really missing out in the luck department all that much.
The post by Golebiewski detailed Hermida's increasing lack of strike zone recognition, so I won't go into here, as it's not original research. But as an update, what have we seen so far this year? In 240 plate appearances, Hermida has racked up a .261/.363/.386 line with numbers good for a .338 wOBA. That's close to league average, carried by the first major observation to be had in that slash line: Hermida has been drawing many a walk early in the year. After drawing only 48 walks all of last year (559 PA), he's drawn 32 in less than half the plate appearances. This has amounted to a drastically improved BB%, up to 13.4%. The strikeouts are still high, at 24.6%, but you can't argue with the walk rate and subsequent .102 Isolated Patience.
But what of his plate discipline numbers? As mentioned by Golebiewski, it had seemed Hermida was swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone and less of them inside the strike zone. A look at the numbers this year shows some slight differences. He's swung at "only" 24.2% of pitches outside the strike zone, while his swing rate inside the strike zone has remained at around 60%. His overall contact rate is up 1.5%, and in particular his outside zone contact rate is up 2%. Combine this with him seeing 4% less pitches in the strike zone, and you can see how a decrease in pitches in the zone and a slight but significant decrease in pitches swung at outside the zone has drastically improved his walk rate.
His power numbers are way down, but he seems to be hitting it as hard as ever, as evidenced by a more career-typical 21.8% LD%. However, he has a HR/FB ratio of 10.6%, a number perhaps partially attributed to the fact that he isn't seeing many pitches to hit; only 45.2% of pitches to Hermida have been in the strike zone. So perhaps some of his power problem isn't his fault directly, but could be assisted if he stopped swinging at so many bad pitches.
In any case, I don't expect either trend of significantly higher OBP and significantly lower SLG to continue, and neither do the various projection systems. zIPS has Hermida with a finishing line of .266/.357/.426, good for a .349 wOBA. This would certainly be an improvement over his previous year, but would be more in line with numbers of a guy who just doesn't do enough of either avoiding outs and making more use of his outs (ie. on-base or slugging capabilities) to warrant a lot of playing time. When you figure in his defensive liabilities, it points to a player who shouldn't be taking up the sort of playing time the Marlins are expecting of him right now. He is just 25 years old, so he may one day be able to match the grandiose aspirations of his minor league years. The Marlins are likely to see another season of him if he isn't traded, after which the Fish are looking to hand a corner outfield spot to the power-packed youngster Mike Stanton. But the Fish will be shopping Hermida and his bounty of talent and are willing to allow someone else to figure him out, provided the right return.
Sure enough, regression set in a big way the following year, to the tune of a .249/.323/.406 line and a .321 wOBA. His K% stayed as high as ever while his walk rate dropped another 1%. As Dave Golebiewski of FanGraphs noted in November of 2008, his swinging had gotten a lot less disciplined as well.
All in all, it had appeared Hermida had regressed as far as possible from his initially grand projections. So who really is the true Jeremy Hermida?
His minor league numbers were good, but not great, with a career slash line of .284/.398/.436. A minor league career ISO of .152 is nothing to be proud of, even if you were finishing your minor league run at age 21. So far, Hermida has shown no sign of increasing his power, culminating in this season's so-far horrific .126. That's not a power number you expect or want to see in a corner outfielder, especially one with the glove that Hermida carries (a career UZR of -23.8 in 3000 innings in right field).
Still, the minor league performance should have projected some sort of patience, capability to take walks. But before this season he had not hit above 10% BB% in any of his three seasons. Combine that with increasing K% and you get a player who makes far too many outs, struggles to make contact, and already was known as someone who hadn't developed major league power. Yet his LD% have remained fairly constant through his first three seasons at 20%. His dip last year to 17.7% could have made for some of the batting average fall, but the lack of power was troubling for a player who wasn't really missing out in the luck department all that much.
The post by Golebiewski detailed Hermida's increasing lack of strike zone recognition, so I won't go into here, as it's not original research. But as an update, what have we seen so far this year? In 240 plate appearances, Hermida has racked up a .261/.363/.386 line with numbers good for a .338 wOBA. That's close to league average, carried by the first major observation to be had in that slash line: Hermida has been drawing many a walk early in the year. After drawing only 48 walks all of last year (559 PA), he's drawn 32 in less than half the plate appearances. This has amounted to a drastically improved BB%, up to 13.4%. The strikeouts are still high, at 24.6%, but you can't argue with the walk rate and subsequent .102 Isolated Patience.
But what of his plate discipline numbers? As mentioned by Golebiewski, it had seemed Hermida was swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone and less of them inside the strike zone. A look at the numbers this year shows some slight differences. He's swung at "only" 24.2% of pitches outside the strike zone, while his swing rate inside the strike zone has remained at around 60%. His overall contact rate is up 1.5%, and in particular his outside zone contact rate is up 2%. Combine this with him seeing 4% less pitches in the strike zone, and you can see how a decrease in pitches in the zone and a slight but significant decrease in pitches swung at outside the zone has drastically improved his walk rate.
His power numbers are way down, but he seems to be hitting it as hard as ever, as evidenced by a more career-typical 21.8% LD%. However, he has a HR/FB ratio of 10.6%, a number perhaps partially attributed to the fact that he isn't seeing many pitches to hit; only 45.2% of pitches to Hermida have been in the strike zone. So perhaps some of his power problem isn't his fault directly, but could be assisted if he stopped swinging at so many bad pitches.
In any case, I don't expect either trend of significantly higher OBP and significantly lower SLG to continue, and neither do the various projection systems. zIPS has Hermida with a finishing line of .266/.357/.426, good for a .349 wOBA. This would certainly be an improvement over his previous year, but would be more in line with numbers of a guy who just doesn't do enough of either avoiding outs and making more use of his outs (ie. on-base or slugging capabilities) to warrant a lot of playing time. When you figure in his defensive liabilities, it points to a player who shouldn't be taking up the sort of playing time the Marlins are expecting of him right now. He is just 25 years old, so he may one day be able to match the grandiose aspirations of his minor league years. The Marlins are likely to see another season of him if he isn't traded, after which the Fish are looking to hand a corner outfield spot to the power-packed youngster Mike Stanton. But the Fish will be shopping Hermida and his bounty of talent and are willing to allow someone else to figure him out, provided the right return.
Blogservations 06/09/09. Marlins 4, Cardinals 3
I regrettably was unable to watch this pitching duel of a game, so I had to do the old browsing of the box score. Luckily, FanGraphs has an excellent box score, game graph, and play-by-play setup for each game, and this yielded plenty of interesting information. Let's dive in.
I love Josh Johnson
It wasn't the prettiest of his outings, but his peripherals still looked excellent. JJ went seven innings, striking out six and walking just one. Looking at the PBP, it seemed he had a rough second and third inning, where he gave up the majority of his hits. From there, he retired 12 of his next 14 batters, allowing one hit and the lone walk, an intentional one to Rick Ankiel. He certainly outdueled fellow ace Chris Carpenter, who went six innings and gave up the same number of runs with only two strikeouts and one walk.
JJ's numbers are certainly excellent right now, but there is reason to expect some regression. This is the lowest walk rate he's posted so far in his career, so it will be interesting to see him keep it up. Also, he's allowing the lowest HR/FB rate of his career at 5.9%, well below his career values before the season of around 8-9%. He's been forcing far more grounders than previously seen as well.
The HR/FB should surely go up a bit, but it doesn't mean he still won't have a Cy Young caliber season. zIPS projects a 3.17 ERA and 2.96 FIP and a slight increase in his HR totals. Mind you, this is in 27 starts. If JJ can stay healthy all season, you can realistically expect 200+ innings with similar rate values, which should put him in contention with the likes of Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.
The Marlins blew some high leverage situations.
It was a bit frustrating to see leverage indexes over 2 and Marlins hitters whiffing on the opportunities. This has been a common complaint about the Marlins, voiced often by the team's official announcing crew of Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton, that the Marlins are missing out on the "big hit." This game was no exception, even with the walk off by Hermida. Discounting Hermida's walk off home run which added .354 to the win probability (obviously, as it won the game), the team went 1 for 4 in situations where the leverage index for the play was at 2 or higher, with a win probability added (WPA) of -.127. Remember, a leverage index of 1 is a neutral situation with regards to run scoring, with higher values relating stronger to run scoring, and win probability added is a percentage change in the chances of winning based on the result of a play. The only thing that saved that value was Emilio Bonifacio's RBI single worth .132 in WPA.
Timely hitting has a problem for the Fish all season long, and in this game it was no different. At least until a certain walk off blast to right field.
I love Josh Johnson
It wasn't the prettiest of his outings, but his peripherals still looked excellent. JJ went seven innings, striking out six and walking just one. Looking at the PBP, it seemed he had a rough second and third inning, where he gave up the majority of his hits. From there, he retired 12 of his next 14 batters, allowing one hit and the lone walk, an intentional one to Rick Ankiel. He certainly outdueled fellow ace Chris Carpenter, who went six innings and gave up the same number of runs with only two strikeouts and one walk.
JJ's numbers are certainly excellent right now, but there is reason to expect some regression. This is the lowest walk rate he's posted so far in his career, so it will be interesting to see him keep it up. Also, he's allowing the lowest HR/FB rate of his career at 5.9%, well below his career values before the season of around 8-9%. He's been forcing far more grounders than previously seen as well.
The HR/FB should surely go up a bit, but it doesn't mean he still won't have a Cy Young caliber season. zIPS projects a 3.17 ERA and 2.96 FIP and a slight increase in his HR totals. Mind you, this is in 27 starts. If JJ can stay healthy all season, you can realistically expect 200+ innings with similar rate values, which should put him in contention with the likes of Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.
The Marlins blew some high leverage situations.
It was a bit frustrating to see leverage indexes over 2 and Marlins hitters whiffing on the opportunities. This has been a common complaint about the Marlins, voiced often by the team's official announcing crew of Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton, that the Marlins are missing out on the "big hit." This game was no exception, even with the walk off by Hermida. Discounting Hermida's walk off home run which added .354 to the win probability (obviously, as it won the game), the team went 1 for 4 in situations where the leverage index for the play was at 2 or higher, with a win probability added (WPA) of -.127. Remember, a leverage index of 1 is a neutral situation with regards to run scoring, with higher values relating stronger to run scoring, and win probability added is a percentage change in the chances of winning based on the result of a play. The only thing that saved that value was Emilio Bonifacio's RBI single worth .132 in WPA.
Timely hitting has a problem for the Fish all season long, and in this game it was no different. At least until a certain walk off blast to right field.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Blogservations 06/08/09, Marlins 4, Giants 0
I came in late for the game, stepping in during the bottom of the 5th inning. I was pleasantly surprised to see the team up 3-0 and threatening with the bases loaded and two outs, but with Ronny Paulino's groundout, the inning ended in typical Marlins fashion this year. The surprise silver lining for me was that I got to see a row of zeroes on Giants' portion of the column, revealing that Sean West was pitching a gem opposite Randy Johnson.
In any case, here's a few of my observations from the game:
Brett Carroll came up with some ironic timing for a hitting clinic.
He'll never be confused with anything resembling a good hitter, but the one thing Brett Carroll has brought this year in limited innings is a solid outfield glove. And seeing the latest UZR values for the outfielders the Marlins are throwing out there, a solid glove might be able to help the squad win a game or two more. He couldn't be worse than Emilio Bonifacio, could he?
Well, today Fredi gave Bonifacio and Jeremy Hermida the day off, slotting Wes Helms at third and Carroll in right field. Carroll surprisingly did not disappoint with the bat, hitting a three-run home run, his first as a major leaguer, that single-handedly added 21% to the Win Expectancy for the Fish. He added a triple and bunt single to those totals, going 3 for 4 for the night.
I maintain that the team has could have enough depth in the outfield to start Carroll in either left or right field and Hermida at the other side. Fredi likes to bring Carroll in late as a defensive replacement, but at this stage, his bat is no worse than Bonifacio's and his plus glove can be in the game full-time. In just 77 innings of work, Carroll has provided a 5.7 UZR. Of course, small sample size is a big factor here. Looking at his career outfield totals, he's posted a 7.9 UZR in 237 innings, a decent indicator of a good glove.
This would leave the team with Ross Gload as its onyl backup outfielder, so perhaps this strategy should be held until Alfredo Amezaga returns from the DL, which from what I hear isn't anytime soon. Still, after advocating Carroll to start, he certainly backed me up with a good performance.
Sean West showed some impressive stuff.
West ranked as the organization's 4th best prospect and top pitching prospect coming into this year, according to Baseball America. He had been injured in 2007 after a very solid 2006 in low-A, but recovered nicely in 2008. After a slew of injuries and ineffective starts from various Marlins starters, West got the call from AA and has done decently so far. His 5.26 FIP was heavily influenced by his start versus the Brewers, where he was hammered in four innings of work. But his other two starts showed promise, as the peripherals were fine (7/5 K/BB in 12 innings of work, 1 HR allowed) for a 22 year-old fresh off his first 8 starts at AA.
Tonight West put up a gem against the Giants, however. Having watched him starting in the sixth inning, I saw his fastball sitting at 90-92 MPH and a nasty-looking slider in the low-mid 80's with good lateral and downward movement. I'm in no ways a baseball scout, so all I can say is what I saw, and what I saw was some solid movement on his breaking balls that were getting hitters to buckle and miss on many occasions. He was spotting the fastball decently, though the Giants weren't doing much with the ones he was missing.
The best part perhaps was revealed in his peripherals. In eight innings of work, he put up 6 K and only 1 BB, scattering 2 hits. That's good stuff, and it shows some of his ability to miss bats that had not been seen all that much in his previous starts. Here's hoping tonight is the start of a good run for West the rest of the way through his major league stint this year. I suspect we'll see him back in AA when the injury to Anibal Sanchez clears up and he's ready to start again.
I'm anxious to see more of Chris Coghlan.
Coghlan looked great as a minor leaguer last year and was poised to be brought to big leagues this season. But with 2B blocked by Dan Uggla (and the team's refusal to move him out of the position despite his poor range), Coghlan would have to find a new position to play. With Bonifacio struggling at the time of his call-up, many figured that would be third base, but Fredi's insistance on playing Bonifacio moved Coghlan to left field. While Coghlan's current line of .224/.350/.329 isn't lighting up the sky, it's his OBP that intrigues me and leaves me wanting to see more.
The Marlins have quite a few players in their lineup that struggle with getting on base. Bonifacio and his terrible numbers aside, we also have low OBP's on players like Cody Ross (.305) and Jorge Cantu (.339) because they lack the patience for walks. Cantu so far has posted a 6.5% BB rate, while Ross himself has a 6.1% BB rate. Three Marlin's regulars are posting BB rates above 10%: John Baker, who seems to be getting 2/3 of the catcher PA only, Jeremy Hermida, who seems to have lost all semblance of power and is in that sense the opposite of Ross, and Dan Uggla, who is just now returning to peak form from some bad BABIP karma.
Coghlan shows a robust 16.7% BB rate early in the season and has the .350 OBP that is at least a little deserving of a leadoff spot. All of this is in a small sample size, so we have to take it with a grain of salt. But if he can provide this kind of OBP and increase his power numbers a bit more (he is currently posting a weak 11.9% line drive % (LD%) which I suspect doesn't match his minor league track record and should receive a decent bump, which should help his currently low BABIP), he could be the kind of leadoff hitter the team needs to compete offensively.
However, that kind of expectation may be a tad overzealous. zIPS projects a .241/.327/.353 finish to Coghlan's year, with a BB rate down to 11.0%, closer to his minor league career values. A line like that wouldn't exactly be a cup of tea, but the team could do worse with the talent it currently has.
In any case, here's a few of my observations from the game:
Brett Carroll came up with some ironic timing for a hitting clinic.
He'll never be confused with anything resembling a good hitter, but the one thing Brett Carroll has brought this year in limited innings is a solid outfield glove. And seeing the latest UZR values for the outfielders the Marlins are throwing out there, a solid glove might be able to help the squad win a game or two more. He couldn't be worse than Emilio Bonifacio, could he?
Well, today Fredi gave Bonifacio and Jeremy Hermida the day off, slotting Wes Helms at third and Carroll in right field. Carroll surprisingly did not disappoint with the bat, hitting a three-run home run, his first as a major leaguer, that single-handedly added 21% to the Win Expectancy for the Fish. He added a triple and bunt single to those totals, going 3 for 4 for the night.
I maintain that the team has could have enough depth in the outfield to start Carroll in either left or right field and Hermida at the other side. Fredi likes to bring Carroll in late as a defensive replacement, but at this stage, his bat is no worse than Bonifacio's and his plus glove can be in the game full-time. In just 77 innings of work, Carroll has provided a 5.7 UZR. Of course, small sample size is a big factor here. Looking at his career outfield totals, he's posted a 7.9 UZR in 237 innings, a decent indicator of a good glove.
This would leave the team with Ross Gload as its onyl backup outfielder, so perhaps this strategy should be held until Alfredo Amezaga returns from the DL, which from what I hear isn't anytime soon. Still, after advocating Carroll to start, he certainly backed me up with a good performance.
Sean West showed some impressive stuff.
West ranked as the organization's 4th best prospect and top pitching prospect coming into this year, according to Baseball America. He had been injured in 2007 after a very solid 2006 in low-A, but recovered nicely in 2008. After a slew of injuries and ineffective starts from various Marlins starters, West got the call from AA and has done decently so far. His 5.26 FIP was heavily influenced by his start versus the Brewers, where he was hammered in four innings of work. But his other two starts showed promise, as the peripherals were fine (7/5 K/BB in 12 innings of work, 1 HR allowed) for a 22 year-old fresh off his first 8 starts at AA.
Tonight West put up a gem against the Giants, however. Having watched him starting in the sixth inning, I saw his fastball sitting at 90-92 MPH and a nasty-looking slider in the low-mid 80's with good lateral and downward movement. I'm in no ways a baseball scout, so all I can say is what I saw, and what I saw was some solid movement on his breaking balls that were getting hitters to buckle and miss on many occasions. He was spotting the fastball decently, though the Giants weren't doing much with the ones he was missing.
The best part perhaps was revealed in his peripherals. In eight innings of work, he put up 6 K and only 1 BB, scattering 2 hits. That's good stuff, and it shows some of his ability to miss bats that had not been seen all that much in his previous starts. Here's hoping tonight is the start of a good run for West the rest of the way through his major league stint this year. I suspect we'll see him back in AA when the injury to Anibal Sanchez clears up and he's ready to start again.
I'm anxious to see more of Chris Coghlan.
Coghlan looked great as a minor leaguer last year and was poised to be brought to big leagues this season. But with 2B blocked by Dan Uggla (and the team's refusal to move him out of the position despite his poor range), Coghlan would have to find a new position to play. With Bonifacio struggling at the time of his call-up, many figured that would be third base, but Fredi's insistance on playing Bonifacio moved Coghlan to left field. While Coghlan's current line of .224/.350/.329 isn't lighting up the sky, it's his OBP that intrigues me and leaves me wanting to see more.
The Marlins have quite a few players in their lineup that struggle with getting on base. Bonifacio and his terrible numbers aside, we also have low OBP's on players like Cody Ross (.305) and Jorge Cantu (.339) because they lack the patience for walks. Cantu so far has posted a 6.5% BB rate, while Ross himself has a 6.1% BB rate. Three Marlin's regulars are posting BB rates above 10%: John Baker, who seems to be getting 2/3 of the catcher PA only, Jeremy Hermida, who seems to have lost all semblance of power and is in that sense the opposite of Ross, and Dan Uggla, who is just now returning to peak form from some bad BABIP karma.
Coghlan shows a robust 16.7% BB rate early in the season and has the .350 OBP that is at least a little deserving of a leadoff spot. All of this is in a small sample size, so we have to take it with a grain of salt. But if he can provide this kind of OBP and increase his power numbers a bit more (he is currently posting a weak 11.9% line drive % (LD%) which I suspect doesn't match his minor league track record and should receive a decent bump, which should help his currently low BABIP), he could be the kind of leadoff hitter the team needs to compete offensively.
However, that kind of expectation may be a tad overzealous. zIPS projects a .241/.327/.353 finish to Coghlan's year, with a BB rate down to 11.0%, closer to his minor league career values. A line like that wouldn't exactly be a cup of tea, but the team could do worse with the talent it currently has.
Fredi, why is Bonifacio still playing?
The question is simple enough.
Fredi, why is Emilio Bonifacio still playing third base for this team?
Going into the season, President of Baseball Operations Larry Beinfest recognized the Marlins' biggest hole was their defense. This was evident from watching the club, and the numbers tend to support this premise. The following is the Marlins' typical lineup, complete with UZR from last year.
SS Hanley Ramirez: -0.7
3B Jorge Cantu: -7.3
1B Mike Jacobs: -13.6
2B Dan Uggla: 1.6
LF Josh Willingham: 1.3
RF Jeremy Hermida: -9.3
CF Cody Ross: 11.3
Admittedly, UZR isn't a fair assessment for individual players on a year-to-year basis, but you can take a look at FanGraphs totals for the last few years and get three-year values that give accurate picture, one that would likely be quite similar to the one shown here. If you follow the accepted convention that 10 runs = 1 win and that a replacement level player is league-average at his position, the Marlins' mainstays combined to cost the team 16.7 runs, or about 1.6 wins, over the course of the season. Good defense from reserves like Wes Helms, who played a decent amount because of Mike Jacobs terrible lefty splits, and Alfredo Amezaga, who logged good innings in both CF and SS when Hanley was out with injury, brought the Fish's UZR totals to a respectable -2.6 runs.
Of course, last year brought the revolution of defense into baseball as clubs found that winning teams like the rejuvenated Tampa Bay Rays and the eventual World Champion Philadelphia Phillies were doing it in part because of their excellent defense (FanGraphs has both those teams at the top of team UZR at around 74 runs, 7.4 wins above average). So the Marlins decided to make some personnel changes around the diamond, the most dramatic being the shipping of Mike Jacobs away to DH for the Kansas City Royals in return for Leo Nunez. This move provided a twofold benefit:
1) It got rid of Jacobs and his sieve-like work at 1B.
2) It moved Cantu away from 3B, where he was highly ineffective, to 1B, where his defensive deficiencies could be hidden.
There was still a question of who would play the other infield corner position. Cantu could have stayed at 3B if the team elected to start Gaby Sanchez, reigning Southern League MVP, at 1B. The club also had Dallas McPherson, who wasn't the sharpest at 3B but hit 42 HR in Triple-A last year, as an option.
However, the team went with an entirely different route. The club acquired Bonifacio, a light-hitting 24 year old in a deal that sent Scott Olsen and Willingham to the Nationals. They then planted him at 3B, citing his benefits as speed and an improved defensive glove at the hot corner.
Then that magical first week happened, and there were rave reviews abound about the speedster at the top of the lineup.
Since that first week or so, Bonifacio has been terrible. By the end of April, he had a meager .269/.306/.344 line, and that would soon diminish by May. In that month, he posted a horrid .235/.279/.277 line which is scarily close to his current .242/.287/.292 line. He hadn't hit an extra-base hit since May 15 before last week's pair of doubles, and he has only 8 extra-base hits all season long.
To put it all together, I'll use wOBA as a method of describing a player's level of total offensive performance. According to FanGraphs, Bonifacio has put up a .265 wOBA for the year. Keep in mind of course that a league-average wOBA would be expected to be somewhere around .340. In comparison, Cameron Maybin, who was demoted last month to Triple-A, posted a .261 wOBA.
These hitting woes wouldn't be as much of an issue if Bonifacio had been playing stellar defense at 3B. But his current UZR is -5.8, meaning he's costing runs with his bat and his glove. This, along with expected regressions in defense by Uggla, who clearly lacks the range to play 2B, and Ross
This still wouldn't be all that much of a problem if manager Fredi Gonzalez would shuttle Bonifacio down to eighth in the order. Yet up to last week he was still leading off for the team! I'm not a huge proponent of the subtle benefits of batting order and of certain slots requiring certain things, but I do know that if you're giving your worst hitter the most plate appearances on your team, you're not helping your team win games as manager. Manager's already don't contribute much on the field; they actually don't contribute anything directly to the field at all. All they can do is make the right decisions for the club and let the players decide it. Fredi should not be allowing Emilio Bonifacio to be deciding games for this team, neither with his bat nor glove.
It isn't as if the team doesn't have options either. They brought up Chris Coghlan from the minors in early May, and I remember Dave Cameron of FanGraphs and USS Mariner fame mentioning that it should signal the end of Bonifacio getting major playing time. Yet we're a month past and he's still batting second in the order while Coghlan has moved to left field, a new position for him. If the club wanted to play players with nothing in the way of bats, why not move Brett Carroll to LF, where his superior glove could help out the struggling outfield defense. At least in this situation, Fredi wouldn't be tempted to give Brett Carroll a leadoff spot because of his "speed," and Carroll would bring more than lip service to the team's defense. They could try Coghlan at third, where he might have more success, and see if he's worth a long-term look, especially with Dan Uggla's ever-growing arbitration salary.
It's mind-boggling how managers can fall in love with speed at the top of the lineup and ignore the most important things about hitters at the top of the lineup. The old adage says "you can't steal first" and only a select few hitters can claim otherwise (Ichiro comes to mind). Emilio Bonifacio is not Ichiro.
Fredi, why is Emilio Bonifacio still playing third base for this team?
Going into the season, President of Baseball Operations Larry Beinfest recognized the Marlins' biggest hole was their defense. This was evident from watching the club, and the numbers tend to support this premise. The following is the Marlins' typical lineup, complete with UZR from last year.
SS Hanley Ramirez: -0.7
3B Jorge Cantu: -7.3
1B Mike Jacobs: -13.6
2B Dan Uggla: 1.6
LF Josh Willingham: 1.3
RF Jeremy Hermida: -9.3
CF Cody Ross: 11.3
Admittedly, UZR isn't a fair assessment for individual players on a year-to-year basis, but you can take a look at FanGraphs totals for the last few years and get three-year values that give accurate picture, one that would likely be quite similar to the one shown here. If you follow the accepted convention that 10 runs = 1 win and that a replacement level player is league-average at his position, the Marlins' mainstays combined to cost the team 16.7 runs, or about 1.6 wins, over the course of the season. Good defense from reserves like Wes Helms, who played a decent amount because of Mike Jacobs terrible lefty splits, and Alfredo Amezaga, who logged good innings in both CF and SS when Hanley was out with injury, brought the Fish's UZR totals to a respectable -2.6 runs.
Of course, last year brought the revolution of defense into baseball as clubs found that winning teams like the rejuvenated Tampa Bay Rays and the eventual World Champion Philadelphia Phillies were doing it in part because of their excellent defense (FanGraphs has both those teams at the top of team UZR at around 74 runs, 7.4 wins above average). So the Marlins decided to make some personnel changes around the diamond, the most dramatic being the shipping of Mike Jacobs away to DH for the Kansas City Royals in return for Leo Nunez. This move provided a twofold benefit:
1) It got rid of Jacobs and his sieve-like work at 1B.
2) It moved Cantu away from 3B, where he was highly ineffective, to 1B, where his defensive deficiencies could be hidden.
There was still a question of who would play the other infield corner position. Cantu could have stayed at 3B if the team elected to start Gaby Sanchez, reigning Southern League MVP, at 1B. The club also had Dallas McPherson, who wasn't the sharpest at 3B but hit 42 HR in Triple-A last year, as an option.
However, the team went with an entirely different route. The club acquired Bonifacio, a light-hitting 24 year old in a deal that sent Scott Olsen and Willingham to the Nationals. They then planted him at 3B, citing his benefits as speed and an improved defensive glove at the hot corner.
Then that magical first week happened, and there were rave reviews abound about the speedster at the top of the lineup.
Since that first week or so, Bonifacio has been terrible. By the end of April, he had a meager .269/.306/.344 line, and that would soon diminish by May. In that month, he posted a horrid .235/.279/.277 line which is scarily close to his current .242/.287/.292 line. He hadn't hit an extra-base hit since May 15 before last week's pair of doubles, and he has only 8 extra-base hits all season long.
To put it all together, I'll use wOBA as a method of describing a player's level of total offensive performance. According to FanGraphs, Bonifacio has put up a .265 wOBA for the year. Keep in mind of course that a league-average wOBA would be expected to be somewhere around .340. In comparison, Cameron Maybin, who was demoted last month to Triple-A, posted a .261 wOBA.
These hitting woes wouldn't be as much of an issue if Bonifacio had been playing stellar defense at 3B. But his current UZR is -5.8, meaning he's costing runs with his bat and his glove. This, along with expected regressions in defense by Uggla, who clearly lacks the range to play 2B, and Ross
This still wouldn't be all that much of a problem if manager Fredi Gonzalez would shuttle Bonifacio down to eighth in the order. Yet up to last week he was still leading off for the team! I'm not a huge proponent of the subtle benefits of batting order and of certain slots requiring certain things, but I do know that if you're giving your worst hitter the most plate appearances on your team, you're not helping your team win games as manager. Manager's already don't contribute much on the field; they actually don't contribute anything directly to the field at all. All they can do is make the right decisions for the club and let the players decide it. Fredi should not be allowing Emilio Bonifacio to be deciding games for this team, neither with his bat nor glove.
It isn't as if the team doesn't have options either. They brought up Chris Coghlan from the minors in early May, and I remember Dave Cameron of FanGraphs and USS Mariner fame mentioning that it should signal the end of Bonifacio getting major playing time. Yet we're a month past and he's still batting second in the order while Coghlan has moved to left field, a new position for him. If the club wanted to play players with nothing in the way of bats, why not move Brett Carroll to LF, where his superior glove could help out the struggling outfield defense. At least in this situation, Fredi wouldn't be tempted to give Brett Carroll a leadoff spot because of his "speed," and Carroll would bring more than lip service to the team's defense. They could try Coghlan at third, where he might have more success, and see if he's worth a long-term look, especially with Dan Uggla's ever-growing arbitration salary.
It's mind-boggling how managers can fall in love with speed at the top of the lineup and ignore the most important things about hitters at the top of the lineup. The old adage says "you can't steal first" and only a select few hitters can claim otherwise (Ichiro comes to mind). Emilio Bonifacio is not Ichiro.
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