Blogservations 06/13/09, Marlins 6, Blue Jays 5

No BoniLine today, as Fredi gave him the day off in favor of Wes Helms. Still, a tight but very well-deserved victory for the Marlins over a good Jays team. Here are some of my thoughts on the game.

Sean West followed his masterpiece with a clunker.

Here's another solid reason why wins don't tell you anything. It was pretty visible to everyone there that Sean West could be beat out there, but the Jays were simply unable to get to him. In 5 2/3 innings, West walked four while striking out none and gave up two two-run homers in the process. His pitches, as one would expect in an outing like this, were not sharp. Watching him throughout, his velocity was way down, with his fastball sitting 87-89 MPH, only occasionally touching 90 MPH and going no higher. Color commentator Tommy Hutton mentioned that the Rogers Center radar gun looked a little slow, as evidenced by the uncharacteristic speeds for West and Leo Nunez. Still, West's fastball looked slow today, and he wasn't placing it anywhere effectively. The two home runs he allowed were big mistake pitches over the plate, and much of the time he spent either digging pitches into the dirt or missing in the strike zone. The Marlins should be considered lucky to get away with a win backed by a performance like this one.

The Marlins outfielders are locked in at the plate.

Last night Chris Coghlan put up a 4-for-5 line. Though he followed up last night with only one double today, the other two Marlins outfielders picked up the slack. Jeremy Hermida went 2-for-4 and Cody Ross went 3-for-4, and each of them smacked a two-run homer to produce the majority of the Fish's runs. Closing in on the midway mark for June, Hermida has posted an impressive .342/.432/.526 line for the month, good for a .410 wOBA. The most encouraging sign perhaps is the increased power; for the month Hermida has posted a .184 ISO, and in his last six games, he's knocked a double and three home runs. Not to be outdone, Cody Ross has put up a .275/.326/.475 line for the month and has powered the Marlins recently with two home runs and two doubles in the series, one of the doubles today coming off the top of the wall and looking conspicuously like a home run on video replay.

Combine the recent hot streaks with Coghlan's solid month and increasing power numbers and Ross Gload's quietly good season at the plate, and the Marlins suddenly have a bounty of useful offensive players who can play the outfield. I think Fredi should consider a lineup where Coghlan is moved to third base and Gload gets extra playing time in right field, even though his defense there is lacking. This would get the best bats in the lineup, even if it is only for one or two games a week versus right handers. It definitely seems like something to consider.

The bullpen looked spectacular.

A few games ago the pen struggled and Leo Nunez in particular surrendered the game winning run to St. Louis. Today the runs were allowed by West, but the pen came out and shut the door after an unearned made it a 6-5 game. Leo Nunez pitched an excellent 1 1/3 innings, striking out two in some very high leverage situations. Dan Meyer came in before him and knocked out Adam Lind in one of the tightest spots in the game, with runners on first and second with one out in the seventh inning and the Jays already with a run home. Finally, Matt Lindstrom gave up a leadoff hit but had no problems finishing off the top of the Jays order, thanks in some part to Marco Scutaro giving himself up for the sacrifice bunt. Lindstrom collected two easy outs in the highest leverage situations in the game, closing the door with a Vernon Wells strikeout.

The bullpen has had its ups and downs so far this year, trending down right now perhaps due to overwork, a situation that happened last year as well after the first half. Lindstrom has been wild all season long, and it has been torture to watch. But today Nunez and Lindstrom looked great and sealed a tough game for the Marlins. Hopefully this is a harbinger of things to come.

Blogservations 06/12/09, Marlins 7, Blue Jays 3

No Blogservations on the Cardinal's 6-5 comeback win over the Marlins, as I didn't catch any of it and saw very little in the way of signs. The only thing I can say is that Leo Nunez's poor peripherals are starting to catch up to him. He throws it well, but he walks too many guys to be effective. Also, he's literally missing bats like he hasn't done before (a 71.6% contact rate, down from the low 80's he's put up most of his career), and combining that with the very low .246 BABIP, I'd say his season so far has been more than a bit fluky, and now he's beginning to regress to what he actually is.

Let's move on to this game.

Ricky Nolasco looked like his old self.

This start was more indicative of the old Nolasco of last year than any of his previous starts. Maybe the Triple-A demotion worked and he got his act together, though it was doubtful his act was off to begin with. Before the demotion, his K/9 had increased from last year, though it's come with an increase in BB/9 as well. Today Nolasco posted an impressive nine strikeouts against only one walk. Had he scattered those five hits and walk a bit more, it's likely he would not have allowed much in the way of runs; that being said, a big issue Nolasco had been facing was the big inning. Outside of the fifth inning last night, the outing was very encouraging.

Nolasco's biggest problem is likely the .399 BABIP he's posted so far, which screams "regression to the mean." Still, a 24% LD% shows he's being hit harder this season, which hopefully is not a trend. Nolasco's working well, showing numbers very similar, if not better, than those of last year. The final resutls are finally starting to catch up.

The Marlins finally came up big in the clutch.

The high leverage plays finally started to go the Marlins' way. With the exception of Jorge Cantu's bases loaded ground out in the third inning, the Fish were able to deliver the big hits color commentator Tommy Hutton keeps clamoring for. It started with Hanley Ramirez's single in the seventh (a 3.58 Leverage Index) and culminated of course in the Cody Ross grand slam with the bases juiced (ironically only a 3.10 Leverage Index). I brought up the team's performance on plate appearances with a Leverage Index (LI) greater 2 in a previous game. Tonight, the club delivered in a big way, going 2 for 3 in 5 PA with LI over 2, with a Dan Uggla walk and a John Baker HBP as well. All in all, the team totaled a 0.391 WPA in those PA's, a rare "clutch" performance by the team.

Chris Coghlan is looking like a true leadoff man.

Fredi Gonzalez wisened up for last night's AL home game and batted Emilio Bonifacio, the team's worst hitter, in the characteristic ninth spot. While he struggled to an uneventful 0 for 4 night, the team's new leadoff hitter Chris Coghlan flourished, going 4 for 5 with 3 singles and a double. He also stole a base and scored twice, thanks to Hanley Ramirez's solid game. It was good to see Coghlan set the table against Toronto, a team that has an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup in Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. The Marlins' table-setting duo of Coghlan and Ross Gload combined for seven hits and two doubles in 10 PA, compiling a WPA of 0.171. If the team could get half that production from its leadoff and #2 hitters everyday, our offense would be much improved.

With Coghlan's ability to draw walks, he seems like a natural fit at the top of the order. Add to that his speed potential on the basepaths and the Fish have likely stumbled on a good choice for leadoff. As for the #2 guy, once the club starts playing NL teams again, it won't have the luxury of playing Gload at first base and having Cantu DH. Knowing that you're looking for OBP in your top of the lineup guys, as they get the most PA's and as a result should be the ones who use their opportunities most efficiently, the team should allow Jeremy Hermida to bat in the 2-hole again. He did this for much of the season last year before John Baker got the nod near the end of the season, but previously didn't deserve to be taking up that high slot due to an eroding OBP. Now his OBP stands at a robust .374, a number that would certainly hold up for a #2 hitter.

The other option the team should consider is another man who used to hit #2 for the club, Dan Uggla. Uggla hit in the 2-hole most of 2006, but was moved down in the order as a result of his power. At the time he also hadn't reached base at the clip he is now, and for the last two years he's shown dramatic improvement in his walks and OBP. In addition, Uggla has had a difficult time getting pitches to hit; a mere 47.1% of the pitches he's seen have been in the strikezone. Dave Cameron posted an interesting piece regarding a new strategy for #2 hitters, mostly putting players who are better fastball hitters but don't see fastballs normally into the 2-hole. If this strategy provided any sort of bonus benefit in addition to having Uggla's increasing plate selectivity, it might be worth a try.

The BoniLine, 06/12/2009

A quick BoniLine for tonight's excellent 7-3 win.

Emilio Bonifacio: 4 PA, 0 H, WPA: -.076

Best Performer:
Hanley Ramirez: 5 PA, 3 H, 3 1B, 1 SF, 3 RBI, WPA: .195

Granted, Bonifacio's line was uneventfully bad, as he had a low leverage index (0.75), bogged down by the extremely low leverage PA after Cody Ross's grand slam. Still, very characteristic of Bonifacio: 4 PA, 2 groundouts, 2 bunting outs, on bad bunts at that. The BoniLine trudges along...

Fish Bites, 06/12/2009

I'll be attempting to put up a regular news and notes column highlighting the day's Florida Marlins news, along with any other interesting tidbits around Major League Baseball. Let's dive into today's links.

- MLB.com reports that manager Fredi Gonzalez expects it will be another three or four days until Anibal Sanchez can start throwing, meaning there's no chance he'll be available to pitch when he's first eligible to come off the DL June 18. With Sean West's last gem and how the rest of staff has performed admirably, I don't think we'll miss Sanchez and his current 5.22 FIP. I don't doubt some of that was his shoulder, but he'd been pitching poorly before his last DL stint and all the way back into when he first came back midseason last year. Maybe something's still wrong with him, a Triple-A stint or extended rehab session in the minors may be in the works.

- Speaking of the rotation, Dave Hyde of the Sun-Sentinel has not given up on the Marlins' season yet, and it's because the young starters are starting to get it. I'm just as much of a fan of our young staff, but there is work to be done. It's been noted that the Marlins' starters have increased their K/9 and decreased their BB/9, typically a great sign, but when two of your three main cogs are giving around 1.5 HR/9, it's going to be tough to win back this season. I love how Miller has been playing as of late, and if he can keep his walks down, he'll be a mainstay. Chris Volstad's HR/FB is likely fluky and should come down, but Ricky Nolasco's HR/FB has remained around his career totals, with his HR/9 up 0.2. I'm certain that if he can get that value down, his numbers will look more like those of last year, but it remains to be seen. I'm still optimistic.

- The Palm Beach Post wraps up the Marlins' draft, noting that half of the team's selections were pitchers. No real surprises here, folks. Larry Beinfest and company run this organization excellently, and if there's one thing we've learned about their style, which has seemed to work well so far, is that they stock up on pitching, especially high school arms ala Chris Volstad. Here's hoping that Chad James kid can bring it, along with the rest of the team's new arms.

- MLB.com also has a random piece on the fastest player in baseball. Lot's of typical names, no surprises here. Marlins third base coach Bo Porter went with the homer pick of Emilio Bonifacio, though I can't imagine he'd know that well since Bonifacio is hardly on base. Similarly, Braves catcher Brian McCann chose Michael Bourn and Willy Taveras, two guys who would be somewhat lucky to have an OBP above .310. In all honesty, I'm really tired of the fast leadoff man ideal. Can we find guys like Taveras or Joey Gathright that can actually get on base? Seems like every speedster has a horrendous bat and, even if they could draw walks, pitchers just pound the strike zone and dare them to hit more than a weak grounder up the middle. Jose Reyes, please lead the way.

- I actually almost forgot this one. Witness Kansas City vs. Cleveland last night, and in particular the highlights of the game winning hit by Mark DeRosa. That bird cannot be feeling well this morning.

The BoniLine, 06/11/2009

The BoniLine is a new daily containing some of the highlights of Emilio Bonifacio's stat lines from the last game. As a comparison point, I'll be placing alongside Bonifacio's line the line of the best offensive performer for the Marlins for that game according to Win Probability Added (WPA). This will go on until Fredi Gonzalez tones down Bonifacio's playing time significantly (ie. bench him!)

06/11/2009: Cardinals 6, Marlins 5

Emilio Bonifacio: 5 PA, 1H, 1 1B, 1 R, WPA: -.176

Best Perfomer:
Ross Gload: 4 PA, 3 H, 1B, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, WPA: .281

I'm sure there will be days where the BoniLine and the BestLine are the same. With the consistency that Fredi is playing Bonifacio, I sure hope it'll happen often.

Blogservations 06/10/09, Cardinals 13, Marlins 4

Sat and watched through much of this game, though I missed the debacle that was the eighth inning and on for somewhat important reasons. Still, here's some of my take on tonight's game.

Chris Volstad has a serious case of homeritis.

It's spread all over his pitching game. On the box score it says he only gave up one long ball, a three-run shot in the first inning to Colby Rasmus. But watching the game, he gave up another long fly ball to Yadier Molina that would've been a home run in almost any other park, but thanks to the "Teal Monster" out in left and Molina going into a bit of a home run trot, it was reduced to a long fly ball single. In my view, Volstad pretty much gave up two more jacks tonight, and in reality it's been a season-long trend.

This year, Volstad has improved on two of three of his peripheral stats, the true outcome ratios. His K/9 has jumped up to 7.18 from 5.55 last year, and his BB/9 has dropped to 2.68 from 3.84. The primary reason Volstad was able to post a 2.88 ERA last year was a microscopic home run rate; he only allowed two home runs in 84 1/3 innings last year, good for a paltry 3.9% HR/FB ratio. This year, that's been a completely different story. Including tonight, he has allowed 13 home runs, inflating his HR/FB to an absurd 17.4%. His true value is likely somewhere in between those two extremes, and once he regresses we'll see an ERA hovering in the high 3's (this assumes a regression in the K% as well, as I don't think he's ready to strike out major leaguers at that sort of pace just yet). Still, it's an alarming trend, and Volstad needs to help out by doing what he's supposed to be able to do best, keep the ball down and get it on the ground.

Who is Jeremy Hermida?

In 2007, Jeremy Hermida put up a .296/.369/.501 slash line at the tender age of 23. In 484 plate appearances, he posted a .372 wOBA which was good for 2.7 wins above replacement. This season seemed like it was the beginning of a bright future projected by the likes Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus during Hermida's minor league career. However, a look at his BABIP compared to a crude projection using his LD% showed a value that might have suggested a bit of luck.

Sure enough, regression set in a big way the following year, to the tune of a .249/.323/.406 line and a .321 wOBA. His K% stayed as high as ever while his walk rate dropped another 1%. As Dave Golebiewski of FanGraphs noted in November of 2008, his swinging had gotten a lot less disciplined as well.

All in all, it had appeared Hermida had regressed as far as possible from his initially grand projections. So who really is the true Jeremy Hermida?

His minor league numbers were good, but not great, with a career slash line of .284/.398/.436. A minor league career ISO of .152 is nothing to be proud of, even if you were finishing your minor league run at age 21. So far, Hermida has shown no sign of increasing his power, culminating in this season's so-far horrific .126. That's not a power number you expect or want to see in a corner outfielder, especially one with the glove that Hermida carries (a career UZR of -23.8 in 3000 innings in right field).

Still, the minor league performance should have projected some sort of patience, capability to take walks. But before this season he had not hit above 10% BB% in any of his three seasons. Combine that with increasing K% and you get a player who makes far too many outs, struggles to make contact, and already was known as someone who hadn't developed major league power. Yet his LD% have remained fairly constant through his first three seasons at 20%. His dip last year to 17.7% could have made for some of the batting average fall, but the lack of power was troubling for a player who wasn't really missing out in the luck department all that much.

The post by Golebiewski detailed Hermida's increasing lack of strike zone recognition, so I won't go into here, as it's not original research. But as an update, what have we seen so far this year? In 240 plate appearances, Hermida has racked up a .261/.363/.386 line with numbers good for a .338 wOBA. That's close to league average, carried by the first major observation to be had in that slash line: Hermida has been drawing many a walk early in the year. After drawing only 48 walks all of last year (559 PA), he's drawn 32 in less than half the plate appearances. This has amounted to a drastically improved BB%, up to 13.4%. The strikeouts are still high, at 24.6%, but you can't argue with the walk rate and subsequent .102 Isolated Patience.

But what of his plate discipline numbers? As mentioned by Golebiewski, it had seemed Hermida was swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone and less of them inside the strike zone. A look at the numbers this year shows some slight differences. He's swung at "only" 24.2% of pitches outside the strike zone, while his swing rate inside the strike zone has remained at around 60%. His overall contact rate is up 1.5%, and in particular his outside zone contact rate is up 2%. Combine this with him seeing 4% less pitches in the strike zone, and you can see how a decrease in pitches in the zone and a slight but significant decrease in pitches swung at outside the zone has drastically improved his walk rate.

His power numbers are way down, but he seems to be hitting it as hard as ever, as evidenced by a more career-typical 21.8% LD%. However, he has a HR/FB ratio of 10.6%, a number perhaps partially attributed to the fact that he isn't seeing many pitches to hit; only 45.2% of pitches to Hermida have been in the strike zone. So perhaps some of his power problem isn't his fault directly, but could be assisted if he stopped swinging at so many bad pitches.

In any case, I don't expect either trend of significantly higher OBP and significantly lower SLG to continue, and neither do the various projection systems. zIPS has Hermida with a finishing line of .266/.357/.426, good for a .349 wOBA. This would certainly be an improvement over his previous year, but would be more in line with numbers of a guy who just doesn't do enough of either avoiding outs and making more use of his outs (ie. on-base or slugging capabilities) to warrant a lot of playing time. When you figure in his defensive liabilities, it points to a player who shouldn't be taking up the sort of playing time the Marlins are expecting of him right now. He is just 25 years old, so he may one day be able to match the grandiose aspirations of his minor league years. The Marlins are likely to see another season of him if he isn't traded, after which the Fish are looking to hand a corner outfield spot to the power-packed youngster Mike Stanton. But the Fish will be shopping Hermida and his bounty of talent and are willing to allow someone else to figure him out, provided the right return.

Blogservations 06/09/09. Marlins 4, Cardinals 3

I regrettably was unable to watch this pitching duel of a game, so I had to do the old browsing of the box score. Luckily, FanGraphs has an excellent box score, game graph, and play-by-play setup for each game, and this yielded plenty of interesting information. Let's dive in.

I love Josh Johnson

It wasn't the prettiest of his outings, but his peripherals still looked excellent. JJ went seven innings, striking out six and walking just one. Looking at the PBP, it seemed he had a rough second and third inning, where he gave up the majority of his hits. From there, he retired 12 of his next 14 batters, allowing one hit and the lone walk, an intentional one to Rick Ankiel. He certainly outdueled fellow ace Chris Carpenter, who went six innings and gave up the same number of runs with only two strikeouts and one walk.

JJ's numbers are certainly excellent right now, but there is reason to expect some regression. This is the lowest walk rate he's posted so far in his career, so it will be interesting to see him keep it up. Also, he's allowing the lowest HR/FB rate of his career at 5.9%, well below his career values before the season of around 8-9%. He's been forcing far more grounders than previously seen as well.

The HR/FB should surely go up a bit, but it doesn't mean he still won't have a Cy Young caliber season. zIPS projects a 3.17 ERA and 2.96 FIP and a slight increase in his HR totals. Mind you, this is in 27 starts. If JJ can stay healthy all season, you can realistically expect 200+ innings with similar rate values, which should put him in contention with the likes of Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.

The Marlins blew some high leverage situations.

It was a bit frustrating to see leverage indexes over 2 and Marlins hitters whiffing on the opportunities. This has been a common complaint about the Marlins, voiced often by the team's official announcing crew of Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton, that the Marlins are missing out on the "big hit." This game was no exception, even with the walk off by Hermida. Discounting Hermida's walk off home run which added .354 to the win probability (obviously, as it won the game), the team went 1 for 4 in situations where the leverage index for the play was at 2 or higher, with a win probability added (WPA) of -.127. Remember, a leverage index of 1 is a neutral situation with regards to run scoring, with higher values relating stronger to run scoring, and win probability added is a percentage change in the chances of winning based on the result of a play. The only thing that saved that value was Emilio Bonifacio's RBI single worth .132 in WPA.

Timely hitting has a problem for the Fish all season long, and in this game it was no different. At least until a certain walk off blast to right field.

Blogservations 06/08/09, Marlins 4, Giants 0

I came in late for the game, stepping in during the bottom of the 5th inning. I was pleasantly surprised to see the team up 3-0 and threatening with the bases loaded and two outs, but with Ronny Paulino's groundout, the inning ended in typical Marlins fashion this year. The surprise silver lining for me was that I got to see a row of zeroes on Giants' portion of the column, revealing that Sean West was pitching a gem opposite Randy Johnson.

In any case, here's a few of my observations from the game:

Brett Carroll came up with some ironic timing for a hitting clinic.

He'll never be confused with anything resembling a good hitter, but the one thing Brett Carroll has brought this year in limited innings is a solid outfield glove. And seeing the latest UZR values for the outfielders the Marlins are throwing out there, a solid glove might be able to help the squad win a game or two more. He couldn't be worse than Emilio Bonifacio, could he?

Well, today Fredi gave Bonifacio and Jeremy Hermida the day off, slotting Wes Helms at third and Carroll in right field. Carroll surprisingly did not disappoint with the bat, hitting a three-run home run, his first as a major leaguer, that single-handedly added 21% to the Win Expectancy for the Fish. He added a triple and bunt single to those totals, going 3 for 4 for the night.

I maintain that the team has could have enough depth in the outfield to start Carroll in either left or right field and Hermida at the other side. Fredi likes to bring Carroll in late as a defensive replacement, but at this stage, his bat is no worse than Bonifacio's and his plus glove can be in the game full-time. In just 77 innings of work, Carroll has provided a 5.7 UZR. Of course, small sample size is a big factor here. Looking at his career outfield totals, he's posted a 7.9 UZR in 237 innings, a decent indicator of a good glove.

This would leave the team with Ross Gload as its onyl backup outfielder, so perhaps this strategy should be held until Alfredo Amezaga returns from the DL, which from what I hear isn't anytime soon. Still, after advocating Carroll to start, he certainly backed me up with a good performance.

Sean West showed some impressive stuff.

West ranked as the organization's 4th best prospect and top pitching prospect coming into this year, according to Baseball America. He had been injured in 2007 after a very solid 2006 in low-A, but recovered nicely in 2008. After a slew of injuries and ineffective starts from various Marlins starters, West got the call from AA and has done decently so far. His 5.26 FIP was heavily influenced by his start versus the Brewers, where he was hammered in four innings of work. But his other two starts showed promise, as the peripherals were fine (7/5 K/BB in 12 innings of work, 1 HR allowed) for a 22 year-old fresh off his first 8 starts at AA.

Tonight West put up a gem against the Giants, however. Having watched him starting in the sixth inning, I saw his fastball sitting at 90-92 MPH and a nasty-looking slider in the low-mid 80's with good lateral and downward movement. I'm in no ways a baseball scout, so all I can say is what I saw, and what I saw was some solid movement on his breaking balls that were getting hitters to buckle and miss on many occasions. He was spotting the fastball decently, though the Giants weren't doing much with the ones he was missing.

The best part perhaps was revealed in his peripherals. In eight innings of work, he put up 6 K and only 1 BB, scattering 2 hits. That's good stuff, and it shows some of his ability to miss bats that had not been seen all that much in his previous starts. Here's hoping tonight is the start of a good run for West the rest of the way through his major league stint this year. I suspect we'll see him back in AA when the injury to Anibal Sanchez clears up and he's ready to start again.

I'm anxious to see more of Chris Coghlan.

Coghlan looked great as a minor leaguer last year and was poised to be brought to big leagues this season. But with 2B blocked by Dan Uggla (and the team's refusal to move him out of the position despite his poor range), Coghlan would have to find a new position to play. With Bonifacio struggling at the time of his call-up, many figured that would be third base, but Fredi's insistance on playing Bonifacio moved Coghlan to left field. While Coghlan's current line of .224/.350/.329 isn't lighting up the sky, it's his OBP that intrigues me and leaves me wanting to see more.

The Marlins have quite a few players in their lineup that struggle with getting on base. Bonifacio and his terrible numbers aside, we also have low OBP's on players like Cody Ross (.305) and Jorge Cantu (.339) because they lack the patience for walks. Cantu so far has posted a 6.5% BB rate, while Ross himself has a 6.1% BB rate. Three Marlin's regulars are posting BB rates above 10%: John Baker, who seems to be getting 2/3 of the catcher PA only, Jeremy Hermida, who seems to have lost all semblance of power and is in that sense the opposite of Ross, and Dan Uggla, who is just now returning to peak form from some bad BABIP karma.

Coghlan shows a robust 16.7% BB rate early in the season and has the .350 OBP that is at least a little deserving of a leadoff spot. All of this is in a small sample size, so we have to take it with a grain of salt. But if he can provide this kind of OBP and increase his power numbers a bit more (he is currently posting a weak 11.9% line drive % (LD%) which I suspect doesn't match his minor league track record and should receive a decent bump, which should help his currently low BABIP), he could be the kind of leadoff hitter the team needs to compete offensively.

However, that kind of expectation may be a tad overzealous. zIPS projects a .241/.327/.353 finish to Coghlan's year, with a BB rate down to 11.0%, closer to his minor league career values. A line like that wouldn't exactly be a cup of tea, but the team could do worse with the talent it currently has.

Fredi, why is Bonifacio still playing?

The question is simple enough.

Fredi, why is Emilio Bonifacio still playing third base for this team?

Going into the season, President of Baseball Operations Larry Beinfest recognized the Marlins' biggest hole was their defense. This was evident from watching the club, and the numbers tend to support this premise. The following is the Marlins' typical lineup, complete with UZR from last year.

SS Hanley Ramirez: -0.7
3B Jorge Cantu: -7.3
1B Mike Jacobs: -13.6
2B Dan Uggla: 1.6
LF Josh Willingham: 1.3
RF Jeremy Hermida: -9.3
CF Cody Ross: 11.3

Admittedly, UZR isn't a fair assessment for individual players on a year-to-year basis, but you can take a look at FanGraphs totals for the last few years and get three-year values that give accurate picture, one that would likely be quite similar to the one shown here. If you follow the accepted convention that 10 runs = 1 win and that a replacement level player is league-average at his position, the Marlins' mainstays combined to cost the team 16.7 runs, or about 1.6 wins, over the course of the season. Good defense from reserves like Wes Helms, who played a decent amount because of Mike Jacobs terrible lefty splits, and Alfredo Amezaga, who logged good innings in both CF and SS when Hanley was out with injury, brought the Fish's UZR totals to a respectable -2.6 runs.

Of course, last year brought the revolution of defense into baseball as clubs found that winning teams like the rejuvenated Tampa Bay Rays and the eventual World Champion Philadelphia Phillies were doing it in part because of their excellent defense (FanGraphs has both those teams at the top of team UZR at around 74 runs, 7.4 wins above average). So the Marlins decided to make some personnel changes around the diamond, the most dramatic being the shipping of Mike Jacobs away to DH for the Kansas City Royals in return for Leo Nunez. This move provided a twofold benefit:

1) It got rid of Jacobs and his sieve-like work at 1B.
2) It moved Cantu away from 3B, where he was highly ineffective, to 1B, where his defensive deficiencies could be hidden.

There was still a question of who would play the other infield corner position. Cantu could have stayed at 3B if the team elected to start Gaby Sanchez, reigning Southern League MVP, at 1B. The club also had Dallas McPherson, who wasn't the sharpest at 3B but hit 42 HR in Triple-A last year, as an option.

However, the team went with an entirely different route. The club acquired Bonifacio, a light-hitting 24 year old in a deal that sent Scott Olsen and Willingham to the Nationals. They then planted him at 3B, citing his benefits as speed and an improved defensive glove at the hot corner.

Then that magical first week happened, and there were rave reviews abound about the speedster at the top of the lineup.

Since that first week or so, Bonifacio has been terrible. By the end of April, he had a meager .269/.306/.344 line, and that would soon diminish by May. In that month, he posted a horrid .235/.279/.277 line which is scarily close to his current .242/.287/.292 line. He hadn't hit an extra-base hit since May 15 before last week's pair of doubles, and he has only 8 extra-base hits all season long.

To put it all together, I'll use wOBA as a method of describing a player's level of total offensive performance. According to FanGraphs, Bonifacio has put up a .265 wOBA for the year. Keep in mind of course that a league-average wOBA would be expected to be somewhere around .340. In comparison, Cameron Maybin, who was demoted last month to Triple-A, posted a .261 wOBA.

These hitting woes wouldn't be as much of an issue if Bonifacio had been playing stellar defense at 3B. But his current UZR is -5.8, meaning he's costing runs with his bat and his glove. This, along with expected regressions in defense by Uggla, who clearly lacks the range to play 2B, and Ross

This still wouldn't be all that much of a problem if manager Fredi Gonzalez would shuttle Bonifacio down to eighth in the order. Yet up to last week he was still leading off for the team! I'm not a huge proponent of the subtle benefits of batting order and of certain slots requiring certain things, but I do know that if you're giving your worst hitter the most plate appearances on your team, you're not helping your team win games as manager. Manager's already don't contribute much on the field; they actually don't contribute anything directly to the field at all. All they can do is make the right decisions for the club and let the players decide it. Fredi should not be allowing Emilio Bonifacio to be deciding games for this team, neither with his bat nor glove.

It isn't as if the team doesn't have options either. They brought up Chris Coghlan from the minors in early May, and I remember Dave Cameron of FanGraphs and USS Mariner fame mentioning that it should signal the end of Bonifacio getting major playing time. Yet we're a month past and he's still batting second in the order while Coghlan has moved to left field, a new position for him. If the club wanted to play players with nothing in the way of bats, why not move Brett Carroll to LF, where his superior glove could help out the struggling outfield defense. At least in this situation, Fredi wouldn't be tempted to give Brett Carroll a leadoff spot because of his "speed," and Carroll would bring more than lip service to the team's defense. They could try Coghlan at third, where he might have more success, and see if he's worth a long-term look, especially with Dan Uggla's ever-growing arbitration salary.

It's mind-boggling how managers can fall in love with speed at the top of the lineup and ignore the most important things about hitters at the top of the lineup. The old adage says "you can't steal first" and only a select few hitters can claim otherwise (Ichiro comes to mind). Emilio Bonifacio is not Ichiro.

A New Endeavor

Hello.

...these new introductions always make me so uncomfortable.


...that's probably why I'm so savagely bad with women.


...Ahem.


So I've undertaken this endeavor for a few reasons, listed as follows:

1) I love the Marlins. I've been a Marlins fan since I hopped on their bandwagon in 1997, and I haven't hopped off since. That's actually a lie; I hopped off for the season (I stress this because I was going to come right back on the following year, as I felt they were going to compete then as well, but couldn't bear to see my team suffer at the hands of Mark Prior) at around the top of the 8th inning, Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS, a soul-crushing evening for Cubs fans everywhere, but an evening which I doubt many recall fondly because so few people are Marlins fans. It was magical for me when I turned the TV back on as Luis Castillo hit the foul ball that started the chain reaction that was that inning.

Otherwise, I've stayed with them through the years, enjoying 2006 and 2008, and looking forward to what was a promising (and still could be) 2009.

2) I love baseball. I got into it then and just now have started wising up to the finer points of the sport. I tore away from the BA/HR/RBI convention entirely last year, and I'm proud to say that I don't know who led the Marlins in RBI's in 2008, an accomplishment I owe more to my downgrading of the status of the stat than to my ignorance of the team.

...if I had to guess, Jorge Cantu? I'm not looking it up.

I can however say that the team's highest SLG and OPS belonged to Hanley Ramirez (not that that was a difficult guess) and that while this isn't the biggest step forward in my growing quest to grasp the wealth of Saber-knowledge available, it's certainly a start. I've begun looking into various Wins calculations and currently prefer the convention used on Fangraphs, a site which I'll be referencing often times here.

Does that qualify me as any sort of expert? I wouldn't begin to claim it. But having some of this statistical knowledge has helped me appreciate the game and my team more (or less, depending on their performance). I'll definitely take that.